3 ms·

what's a "demographic cliff"?

mohaba 3y ago
A sudden lack of population at certain ages.
neogodless 3y ago
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/06/americas-age-profile-told-through-population-pyramids.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/... Take a look at the 20-24 and 15-19 age groups. Note that 15-19 is smaller, and consider that members of that age group will move up to the next group over the next 5 years. They're also entering typical college age. Now, in this chart, it's far from a "cliff", but it is smaller, so that would mean that you could reasonably expect a lower enrollment since that age bracket is smaller than those that came before it.
- pavon 3y ago
  Note that chart is from 2015, here is a more recent one[1]. There is no drop in current college age students, in fact the birth rate saw slight growth in the decade leading up to today's 18 year olds. There has since been a significant decrease in birth rate, but it shouldn't have affected college enrollment yet. Edit: Enginerrrd posted data[2] with more fidelity than the 5-year bins both of our charts were using, and it indeed shows a cliff for this year. [1]https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/stories/2023/05/aging-united-states-population-fewer-children-in-2020-figure-2.jpg https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/stories/20... [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39682145 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39682145
  - shagie 3y ago
    That's US wide. Consider the population pyramid for California only https://data.census.gov/profile/California?g=040XX00US06 https://data.census.gov/profile/California?g=040XX00US06 and the buckets for 15-19, 10-14, and 5-9 and consider what that will look like for college enrollment in 5 and 10 years.
simplicio 3y ago
Slowing birth-rates mean fewer kids means fewer prospective college students. Suspect this and a tight labor market are the two driving factors.
toomuchtodo 3y ago
https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23428166/college-enrollment-population-education-crash https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23428166/college-enrollmen... ("Vox: The incredible shrinking future of college")
WhatsTheBigIdea 3y ago
The number of people who are in the traditional college age bracket is falling as a result of variations in the birthrate and immigration rate. Some schools are more effected by these demographic issues than others. Institutions that are focused on educating lots of people economically, like CSU, can be expected to feel the demographic swings far more than places like Stanford or Berkeley which are over-subscribed and are likely to remain so.
shagie 3y ago
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/06/americas-age-profile-told-through-population-pyramids.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/... (also linked in sibling) Presumably, the school was built / staffed for a certain regular enrollment that reflected some percentage of the people in state. For California specifically: https://data.census.gov/profile/California?g=040XX00US06 https://data.census.gov/profile/California?g=040XX00US06 You can see the peak of 25-30 somethings, and then it drops off. When you start looking out at the 15-19s there are 400,000 fewer than the 25-29s (roughly 3M -> 2.6M). That then means that enrollment is going to drop and things will need to be cut. The school that I went to for grade school was built for baby boomers. It was large, and the next town over likewise had a large school. When I went it was a bit empty, not too bad though. It picked up again with the echo. The towns have recently closed half of each school and combined classes because there isn't enough students to keep two sets of classes running at reasonable funding levels (having a class of five 3rd graders and six 4th graders is great for student to teacher ratios ... not so much the budget of a small rural school).

A sudden lack of population at certain ages.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/06/americas-age-profile-told-through-population-pyramids.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/... Take a look at the 20-24 and 15-19 age groups. Note that 15-19 is smaller, and consider that members of that age group will move up to the next group over the next 5 years. They're also entering typical college age. Now, in this chart, it's far from a "cliff", but it is smaller, so that would mean that you could reasonably expect a lower enrollment since that age bracket is smaller than those that came before it.

pavon 3y ago
Note that chart is from 2015, here is a more recent one[1]. There is no drop in current college age students, in fact the birth rate saw slight growth in the decade leading up to today's 18 year olds. There has since been a significant decrease in birth rate, but it shouldn't have affected college enrollment yet. Edit: Enginerrrd posted data[2] with more fidelity than the 5-year bins both of our charts were using, and it indeed shows a cliff for this year. [1]https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/stories/2023/05/aging-united-states-population-fewer-children-in-2020-figure-2.jpg https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/stories/20... [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39682145 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39682145
- shagie 3y ago
  That's US wide. Consider the population pyramid for California only https://data.census.gov/profile/California?g=040XX00US06 https://data.census.gov/profile/California?g=040XX00US06 and the buckets for 15-19, 10-14, and 5-9 and consider what that will look like for college enrollment in 5 and 10 years.

simplicio 3y ago

Slowing birth-rates mean fewer kids means fewer prospective college students. Suspect this and a tight labor market are the two driving factors.

toomuchtodo 3y ago

https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23428166/college-enrollment-population-education-crash https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23428166/college-enrollmen... ("Vox: The incredible shrinking future of college")

WhatsTheBigIdea 3y ago

The number of people who are in the traditional college age bracket is falling as a result of variations in the birthrate and immigration rate. Some schools are more effected by these demographic issues than others. Institutions that are focused on educating lots of people economically, like CSU, can be expected to feel the demographic swings far more than places like Stanford or Berkeley which are over-subscribed and are likely to remain so.

shagie 3y ago

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/06/americas-age-profile-told-through-population-pyramids.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/... (also linked in sibling) Presumably, the school was built / staffed for a certain regular enrollment that reflected some percentage of the people in state. For California specifically: https://data.census.gov/profile/California?g=040XX00US06 https://data.census.gov/profile/California?g=040XX00US06 You can see the peak of 25-30 somethings, and then it drops off. When you start looking out at the 15-19s there are 400,000 fewer than the 25-29s (roughly 3M -> 2.6M). That then means that enrollment is going to drop and things will need to be cut. The school that I went to for grade school was built for baby boomers. It was large, and the next town over likewise had a large school. When I went it was a bit empty, not too bad though. It picked up again with the echo. The towns have recently closed half of each school and combined classes because there isn't enough students to keep two sets of classes running at reasonable funding levels (having a class of five 3rd graders and six 4th graders is great for student to teacher ratios ... not so much the budget of a small rural school).