4 ms·

I know when my daughter started college 5 years ago, the dean was up front that there was a demographic cliff coming up, I wonder how much of the decline is tha

I know when my daughter started college 5 years ago, the dean was up front that there was a demographic cliff coming up, I wonder how much of the decline is that.

khazhoux 3y ago
what's a "demographic cliff"?
- mohaba 3y ago
  A sudden lack of population at certain ages.
- neogodless 3y ago
  https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/06/americas-age-profile-told-through-population-pyramids.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/... Take a look at the 20-24 and 15-19 age groups. Note that 15-19 is smaller, and consider that members of that age group will move up to the next group over the next 5 years. They're also entering typical college age. Now, in this chart, it's far from a "cliff", but it is smaller, so that would mean that you could reasonably expect a lower enrollment since that age bracket is smaller than those that came before it.
  - pavon 3y ago
    Note that chart is from 2015, here is a more recent one[1]. There is no drop in current college age students, in fact the birth rate saw slight growth in the decade leading up to today's 18 year olds. There has since been a significant decrease in birth rate, but it shouldn't have affected college enrollment yet. Edit: Enginerrrd posted data[2] with more fidelity than the 5-year bins both of our charts were using, and it indeed shows a cliff for this year. [1]https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/stories/2023/05/aging-united-states-population-fewer-children-in-2020-figure-2.jpg https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/stories/20... [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39682145 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39682145
    - shagie 3y ago
      That's US wide. Consider the population pyramid for California only https://data.census.gov/profile/California?g=040XX00US06 https://data.census.gov/profile/California?g=040XX00US06 and the buckets for 15-19, 10-14, and 5-9 and consider what that will look like for college enrollment in 5 and 10 years.
- simplicio 3y ago
  Slowing birth-rates mean fewer kids means fewer prospective college students. Suspect this and a tight labor market are the two driving factors.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23428166/college-enrollment-population-education-crash https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23428166/college-enrollmen... ("Vox: The incredible shrinking future of college")
- WhatsTheBigIdea 3y ago
  The number of people who are in the traditional college age bracket is falling as a result of variations in the birthrate and immigration rate. Some schools are more effected by these demographic issues than others. Institutions that are focused on educating lots of people economically, like CSU, can be expected to feel the demographic swings far more than places like Stanford or Berkeley which are over-subscribed and are likely to remain so.
- shagie 3y ago
  https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/06/americas-age-profile-told-through-population-pyramids.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/... (also linked in sibling) Presumably, the school was built / staffed for a certain regular enrollment that reflected some percentage of the people in state. For California specifically: https://data.census.gov/profile/California?g=040XX00US06 https://data.census.gov/profile/California?g=040XX00US06 You can see the peak of 25-30 somethings, and then it drops off. When you start looking out at the 15-19s there are 400,000 fewer than the 25-29s (roughly 3M -> 2.6M). That then means that enrollment is going to drop and things will need to be cut. The school that I went to for grade school was built for baby boomers. It was large, and the next town over likewise had a large school. When I went it was a bit empty, not too bad though. It picked up again with the echo. The towns have recently closed half of each school and combined classes because there isn't enough students to keep two sets of classes running at reasonable funding levels (having a class of five 3rd graders and six 4th graders is great for student to teacher ratios ... not so much the budget of a small rural school).
toomuchtodo 3y ago
Structural demographics are likely a component, but also potential students evaluating the cost based on evidence of value. https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/college-degree-jobs-unused-440b2abd https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/college-degree-jobs-un... | https://archive.today/oyc5e https://archive.today/oyc5e ("WSJ: Half of College Grads Are Working Jobs That Don’t Use Their Degrees") > That is the key finding of a new study tracking the career paths of more than 10 million people who entered the job market over the past decade. It suggests that the number of graduates in jobs that don’t make use of their skills or credentials—52%—is greater than previously thought, and underscores the lasting importance of that first job after graduation. Imagine how much effort and fiat was incinerated in aggregate for folks to obtain schooling and a credential that is effectively worthless.
- alistairSH 3y ago
  I drilled into some of the links in that article, but nowhere did I find a definition of "underemployed" in this context. Is there a standard definition? Or did I just miss the definition in the article? "Jobs that don't require a degree" is a very squishy definition, if that's what was used. Technically, software development doesn't require a degree - I work with several excellent developers who lack credentials.
- red-iron-pine 3y ago
  Even a decade ago I heard Jr Linux Admins -- 20 year olds -- who dropped out of college talking about how the juice wasn't worth the squeeze. Like, they live around Northern VA, get a job working in a data center, snag a couple of certs, and then run with it. Maybe get an Associate's at the NVCC or via online orgs like U-MD. Having done hiring in that demographic there was definitely a difference in the Jr Admin population who had real 4-year brick-and-mortar school degrees vs. those without, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that trend decreasing.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - alistairSH 3y ago
darth_avocado 3y ago
> there was a demographic cliff coming up Then ALL universities would see a drop in enrollment, except the ones at the very top of desirability list? Otherwise it could be attributed to other things like high cost of living or more useless degrees available in the university system.

I know when my daughter started college 5 years ago, the dean was up front that there was a demographic cliff coming up, I wonder how much of the decline is that.

khazhoux 3y ago

what's a "demographic cliff"?

mohaba 3y ago
A sudden lack of population at certain ages.
neogodless 3y ago
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/06/americas-age-profile-told-through-population-pyramids.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/... Take a look at the 20-24 and 15-19 age groups. Note that 15-19 is smaller, and consider that members of that age group will move up to the next group over the next 5 years. They're also entering typical college age. Now, in this chart, it's far from a "cliff", but it is smaller, so that would mean that you could reasonably expect a lower enrollment since that age bracket is smaller than those that came before it.
- pavon 3y ago
  Note that chart is from 2015, here is a more recent one[1]. There is no drop in current college age students, in fact the birth rate saw slight growth in the decade leading up to today's 18 year olds. There has since been a significant decrease in birth rate, but it shouldn't have affected college enrollment yet. Edit: Enginerrrd posted data[2] with more fidelity than the 5-year bins both of our charts were using, and it indeed shows a cliff for this year. [1]https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/stories/2023/05/aging-united-states-population-fewer-children-in-2020-figure-2.jpg https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/stories/20... [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39682145 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39682145
  - shagie 3y ago
    That's US wide. Consider the population pyramid for California only https://data.census.gov/profile/California?g=040XX00US06 https://data.census.gov/profile/California?g=040XX00US06 and the buckets for 15-19, 10-14, and 5-9 and consider what that will look like for college enrollment in 5 and 10 years.
simplicio 3y ago
Slowing birth-rates mean fewer kids means fewer prospective college students. Suspect this and a tight labor market are the two driving factors.
toomuchtodo 3y ago
https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23428166/college-enrollment-population-education-crash https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23428166/college-enrollmen... ("Vox: The incredible shrinking future of college")
WhatsTheBigIdea 3y ago
The number of people who are in the traditional college age bracket is falling as a result of variations in the birthrate and immigration rate. Some schools are more effected by these demographic issues than others. Institutions that are focused on educating lots of people economically, like CSU, can be expected to feel the demographic swings far more than places like Stanford or Berkeley which are over-subscribed and are likely to remain so.
shagie 3y ago
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/06/americas-age-profile-told-through-population-pyramids.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/... (also linked in sibling) Presumably, the school was built / staffed for a certain regular enrollment that reflected some percentage of the people in state. For California specifically: https://data.census.gov/profile/California?g=040XX00US06 https://data.census.gov/profile/California?g=040XX00US06 You can see the peak of 25-30 somethings, and then it drops off. When you start looking out at the 15-19s there are 400,000 fewer than the 25-29s (roughly 3M -> 2.6M). That then means that enrollment is going to drop and things will need to be cut. The school that I went to for grade school was built for baby boomers. It was large, and the next town over likewise had a large school. When I went it was a bit empty, not too bad though. It picked up again with the echo. The towns have recently closed half of each school and combined classes because there isn't enough students to keep two sets of classes running at reasonable funding levels (having a class of five 3rd graders and six 4th graders is great for student to teacher ratios ... not so much the budget of a small rural school).

toomuchtodo 3y ago

Structural demographics are likely a component, but also potential students evaluating the cost based on evidence of value. https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/college-degree-jobs-unused-440b2abd https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/college-degree-jobs-un... | https://archive.today/oyc5e https://archive.today/oyc5e ("WSJ: Half of College Grads Are Working Jobs That Don’t Use Their Degrees") > That is the key finding of a new study tracking the career paths of more than 10 million people who entered the job market over the past decade. It suggests that the number of graduates in jobs that don’t make use of their skills or credentials—52%—is greater than previously thought, and underscores the lasting importance of that first job after graduation. Imagine how much effort and fiat was incinerated in aggregate for folks to obtain schooling and a credential that is effectively worthless.

alistairSH 3y ago
I drilled into some of the links in that article, but nowhere did I find a definition of "underemployed" in this context. Is there a standard definition? Or did I just miss the definition in the article? "Jobs that don't require a degree" is a very squishy definition, if that's what was used. Technically, software development doesn't require a degree - I work with several excellent developers who lack credentials.
red-iron-pine 3y ago
Even a decade ago I heard Jr Linux Admins -- 20 year olds -- who dropped out of college talking about how the juice wasn't worth the squeeze. Like, they live around Northern VA, get a job working in a data center, snag a couple of certs, and then run with it. Maybe get an Associate's at the NVCC or via online orgs like U-MD. Having done hiring in that demographic there was definitely a difference in the Jr Admin population who had real 4-year brick-and-mortar school degrees vs. those without, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that trend decreasing.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- alistairSH 3y ago

darth_avocado 3y ago

> there was a demographic cliff coming up Then ALL universities would see a drop in enrollment, except the ones at the very top of desirability list? Otherwise it could be attributed to other things like high cost of living or more useless degrees available in the university system.