3 ms·
Maybe coincidentally related that Simpson's paradox article from earlier, but if they've gotten more accurate overall, I certainly do not see it in the 24-hour
by LgWoodenBadger 3y ago
Maybe coincidentally related that Simpson's paradox article from earlier, but if they've gotten more accurate overall, I certainly do not see it in the 24-hour forecasts. Of course, I'm also probably only paying attention to when it's wrong, not when it's right.
I plan my motorcycling based on rain, and the number of times I've gotten caught in rain when it wasn't supposed to rain at all that day is non-zero just this year.
- VHRanger 3y agoDaily reminder that data isn't the multiple of anecdote.
- Izkata 3y agoExcept it literally is. That statement is pretty much only used as a thought-terminating cliche that means "you're not allowed to have an opinion".
- not2b 3y agoNo, it literally isn't, at least, the plural of anecdotes isn't useful data. To be useful, data need to be collected in a uniform and systematic way. Anecdotes are memory, and it seems we are wired to remember the unusual and the unexpected. So you remember wrong forecasts (especially if you were caught outside unprepared), don't remember correct forecasts. Collecting everyone's anecdotes would not give you any insight about how good or how bad forecasts are. Pointing this out is not an attempt to silence you.