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Automation means we get to level up. We get to work at a higher level. We get bigger building blocks to work from. This has been going on for a long time. W

Automation means we get to level up. We get to work at a higher level. We get bigger building blocks to work from. This has been going on for a long time. We used to spend 30% of our people on growing food. Now we spend 3%, because we have combines instead of a bunch of field workers. A bunch of people could do something else - something more productive than field work. As a result, our society got richer, because of what those other people could do now that they weren't having to work in the fields. What could you do if you didn't have to waste time, say, chasing memory leaks or core dumps or whatever? Could you do something a level up from what you're currently doing? So for society as a whole, the impact is that we get richer. We can produce the same stuff with less human effort, so we can put more people onto inventing and building new things. But for individuals, there's going to be a divide. Can you level up, or not? For those who can't or won't, they're going to be left behind, the way someone was left behind who is still trying to farm 40 acres with a horse-drawn plow. They can survive that way, but they're not going to prosper in the way that the surrounding society prospers. I say that without any judgment on either the skills or the effort of those left behind. I am just saying that there will be people in that category. Society has to figure out how to minimize how many people are in that category. And for those in that category, society has to figure out what to do with them that preserves their human dignity and value, while not letting them impede progress.

giantg2 3y ago
Leveling up as you are presenting it tends to deal with efficiency and task allocation. In the case of increased efficiency, this leads to a need for fewer of those employees (eg your move from 30% to 3%). So 90% of those people, or 27% of the overall population needs a new job. Maybe a lot of those people move from the primary sector of farming to the secondary sector of manufacturing. But even with shuffling with other people in other jobs, a some will not be able to make that switch. As you move from a secondary to tertiary sector economy (people designing the machines), the number of people unable to make that jump increases. I believe that economies making jumps from 1st to 2nd and 2nd to 3rd will be able to benefit. However, I'm skeptical that 3rd level economies will be able to benefit without significant pains due to population level mismatches of required skills to competencies.
- AnimalMuppet 3y ago
  Well, we went through pains going from 1st to 2nd and 2nd to 3rd, too. It wasn't smooth. This won't be, either. The question is, is there something more or less stable at the end of the transition? Are there enough 4th level jobs for the people that can make the switch, and are there enough 1st, 2nd, and 3rd level jobs for the people who can't move up to 4th? Or is there no smooth road after all the bumps of the transition?
  - emestifs 3y ago
    > Or is there [or is there not a] no smooth road after all the bumps of the transition? That's the trillion dollar question
    - giantg2 3y ago
      It doesn't look good to me. I'm not sure what I should be preparing my kids to do for work in a couple decades from now. It can't look that much different than today, but I still can't imagine what the good jobs with long futures might be. I make fun of the surveys that say Gen Z want to be influencers and stuff, but that's probably just as realistic as believing they can build a software career building CRUD apps that could last until 2060.
  - giantg2 3y ago
    Is there a 4th level? The 3rd is supposed to be the top - knowledge based economy focused on providing services rather than resources or manufacturing. That's why it seems once you're in a 3rd level economy, there's not other massive jump. It's all efficiency gains or shifting to other problem areas. Then you add in the other economies that are moving up to 3rd level and it seems there's an oversupply at that level where not locally confined such as a plumber.

giantg2 3y ago

Leveling up as you are presenting it tends to deal with efficiency and task allocation. In the case of increased efficiency, this leads to a need for fewer of those employees (eg your move from 30% to 3%). So 90% of those people, or 27% of the overall population needs a new job. Maybe a lot of those people move from the primary sector of farming to the secondary sector of manufacturing. But even with shuffling with other people in other jobs, a some will not be able to make that switch. As you move from a secondary to tertiary sector economy (people designing the machines), the number of people unable to make that jump increases. I believe that economies making jumps from 1st to 2nd and 2nd to 3rd will be able to benefit. However, I'm skeptical that 3rd level economies will be able to benefit without significant pains due to population level mismatches of required skills to competencies.

AnimalMuppet 3y ago
Well, we went through pains going from 1st to 2nd and 2nd to 3rd, too. It wasn't smooth. This won't be, either. The question is, is there something more or less stable at the end of the transition? Are there enough 4th level jobs for the people that can make the switch, and are there enough 1st, 2nd, and 3rd level jobs for the people who can't move up to 4th? Or is there no smooth road after all the bumps of the transition?
- emestifs 3y ago
  > Or is there [or is there not a] no smooth road after all the bumps of the transition? That's the trillion dollar question
  - giantg2 3y ago
    It doesn't look good to me. I'm not sure what I should be preparing my kids to do for work in a couple decades from now. It can't look that much different than today, but I still can't imagine what the good jobs with long futures might be. I make fun of the surveys that say Gen Z want to be influencers and stuff, but that's probably just as realistic as believing they can build a software career building CRUD apps that could last until 2060.
- giantg2 3y ago
  Is there a 4th level? The 3rd is supposed to be the top - knowledge based economy focused on providing services rather than resources or manufacturing. That's why it seems once you're in a 3rd level economy, there's not other massive jump. It's all efficiency gains or shifting to other problem areas. Then you add in the other economies that are moving up to 3rd level and it seems there's an oversupply at that level where not locally confined such as a plumber.