5 ms·

Apple looks kinda stifled at the moment. But in the end, it will probably keep growing. It reminds me of Microsoft in the early 00s. A slow giant that has a ha

Apple looks kinda stifled at the moment. But in the end, it will probably keep growing. It reminds me of Microsoft in the early 00s. A slow giant that has a hard time innovating. But nonetheless, Microsoft more than 10xed their value since then. There is just too much good stuff constantly coming up in the world of software. Software constantly becomes more and more valuable. A computer still costs less than a car. But having a superhuman AI computer at your service will have so much more value to people that this might change. Much tailwind ahead for computer makers. And at the moment, there are only two mobile computer makers. Apple and Google. Much tailwind ahead for these two companies. Unless a company comes up with a new mobile computing solution which catches Apple and Google off guard. But I don't see that on the horizon yet.

jauntywundrkind 3y ago
Microsoft has to stop behaving like Microsoft to get where they are. Instead of trying to run through show, Microsoft got ahead by behaving well & treating developers well. Making Windows a good enough place to develop from, making Azure a good enough cloud: none of these look like the old Microsoft. Apple doesn't seem to a single play-nice-with-anyone bone in their body. They are fighting tooth & nail for every scrap of control they can keep, doing everything in their power to burn every bridge they can (ending opengl support, ignoring Vulkan). Apple still will hold enormous power for the foreseeable, undoubtedly, but I don't see much parallel to Microsoft. I don't see any redemption ark in progress.
- rapsey 3y ago
  MS and Apple are fundamentally different companies. Apple is the king of consumer products, MS is the king of B2B. Consumer product companies need to fight for every scrap, B2B need relationships.
Dalewyn 3y ago
Are laptops not mobile?
- smt88 3y ago
  No, not the way anyone means "mobile" when saying "mobile devices".
  - ImPostingOnHN 3y ago
    Most people would think "computer" means laptop, or something along those lines, rather than their phone.
- ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
  Pick a random time, pick a random person, what are the chances they have a laptop with them? What are the chances they have a phone with them?
- prmoustache 3y ago
  It depends on what we agree for the definition of mobile. If by mobile you mean transportable, yes they are. But sometimes they are less convenient than some smaller desktop devices[1] If by mobile you mean they can be used in anywhere, you can say more or less. Yes you can use them on your lap, or even very uncomfortably standing up with the laptop in your hand but you are unlikely to do so for more than a few seconds. Apart from students and business travelers, most laptops are just moved from the living room to the kitchen, a desk to a meeting room while powered on, and only transported from home to office. If by mobile you mean you can comfortably use them anywhere on the go, without too much hassle, well they aren't as mobile as smartphones or even tablets. If you look at real estate agents, they mostly only carry their smartphones or a tablet if they want a bigger screen. Very rarely will they pull a macbook from a bag to show you something. When an executive in my company is joining a videocall while parked in his car, he usually use his mobile phone because they find it less convenient to open a laptop, trying to cram it somewhere on the dashboard and share their mobile connection. [1] Even as "transportable" items laptops are sometimes not the best proposition. When I was still working in an office and commuting by bike, I asked my IT department if I could switch from my company issued laptop to a much smaller and less fragile mini barebones computer like the Gigabyte Brix or an intel NUC. They fit more easily in something as simple as a large handlebar bag and can be more easily protected from the elements.
kelthuzad 3y ago
As AI gets progressively more competent, I would assume that it will be much easier for smaller groups of people to come together and give entrenched industry giants a hard time with fierce new competition. Why would otherwise Apple and co already choose lawfare and bad faith tactics to prevent anyone from competing with them on a level playing field?
- onion2k 3y ago
  Why would otherwise Apple and co already choose lawfare and bad faith tactics to prevent anyone from competing with them on a level playing field? Bad faith tactics from tech companies aren't a new thing, and certainly aren't a response to AI. There a re plenty of examples for Apple here https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Litigation_involving_Apple_Inc https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Litigation_involving_Apple_I.... And if you look at Microsoft there's stuff going back to the 80s.
  - kelthuzad 3y ago
    >Bad faith tactics from tech companies aren't a new thing, and certainly aren't a response to AI. I neither insinuated their bad faith tactics to be a response to AI nor did I state that they are new, I made a prediction as response to OP's prediction and I used their current behavior as an indicator for their future behavior.
- anonzzzies 3y ago
  > give entrenched industry giants a hard time with fierce new competition. Once AI reaches that level, it won’t be a smaller group coming together. The big corps will be there first with more money to get the AIs to come up with a million plans per day and execute a bunch of them a lot faster than small groups can. Currently no one really knows what to do except cook up snake oil, but if indeed AI becomes more competent, the big corps will unfortunately own it and use it at scale.
  - kelthuzad 3y ago
    That's definitely a plausible prediction, but since so many people are aware of this, my hope is that we can at least prevent some of their more nefarious lawfare & lobbying such that we make and keep open-source AI competitive.
chucke1992 3y ago
The thing with Microsoft is that they used their classic approach - going the second after the innovator with B2B flavor. Like AWS was the first, but Microsoft went second and used B2B injection. Same with AI - OpenAI was the first, but Microsoft went second and used B2B injection. Even with Office 365 it was basically the same - they injected cloud into B2B. They still are notoriously bad with consumer market though. I think Windows 95 was a nice combo of consumer and B2B success.
- realusername 3y ago
  It also worked with Teams, the software itself is hot trash and not up to the competitors... but it's pushed in the enterprise offering so it worked. The enterprise side of Microsoft is a wonderful selling machine.
  - EraYaN 3y ago
    And since Teams' launch the competitors have also gone full trash, so it all works out for MS. Maybe Hey/Basecamp's new idea ends up being something, but for now it's all kinda clunky Electron apps.
    - piva00 3y ago
      Slack's experience is far, far away from perfect and it manages, at the same time, to be far, far better than whatever Teams offers. Teams is an absolute heap of burning shit, the whole experience is so terrible that what impresses me the most is that it's a sellable product. It's a prime example of how having a good product is not necessary for sales when your sales strategy is a well-oiled machine with deep penetration in the enterprise market.
      - chucke1992 3y ago
        Teams provided extremely good video conferences which was crucial in COVID world and was something that allowed Zoom to go to the moon. Slack was behind in that regard and even now their video offerings are not good or convenient to use at all.
jillesvangurp 3y ago
> And at the moment, there are only two mobile computer makers. Apple and Google. Who both heavily depend on Asian manufacturers that are also producing phones without either Apple's or Google's software bundled for their domestic market. E.g. Huawei is doing pretty well lately and they are no longer getting their software from Google. The operating system moat that Apple and Google enjoy is a lot weaker than the current market suggests. Just because things haven't changed for a while doesn't mean they won't eventually change. A little nudging from judges might force this market to be more open.
- ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
  Good point. What do the Huawei phones use for maps and search?
  - jillesvangurp 3y ago
    This apparently: https://consumer.huawei.com/en/mobileservices/petalmaps/ https://consumer.huawei.com/en/mobileservices/petalmaps/ I wonder where they license their maps ...
    - ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
      Interesting. That makes Google's moat seem smaller than I thought. Do you know what they use for search?
      - jillesvangurp 3y ago
        https://consumer.huawei.com/uk/mobileservices/petalsearch/ https://consumer.huawei.com/uk/mobileservices/petalsearch/ Looks like they did something in house for that as well. Amazon would have the same issues with the Kindle Fire. I think they license Here maps. Not sure if they use Google or Bing.
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
      - 3y ago
card_zero 3y ago
> tailwind ahead This concept is confusing. I guess the headwind will be behind them, too. Wait, so they've completely reversed direction? This begins to sound good.
- rightbyte 3y ago
  Tailwind (from behind) is easier to sail in, than headwind (from the front). "Ahead" means the wind will blow from behind somewhere in front of you, where you are going.

jauntywundrkind 3y ago

Microsoft has to stop behaving like Microsoft to get where they are. Instead of trying to run through show, Microsoft got ahead by behaving well & treating developers well. Making Windows a good enough place to develop from, making Azure a good enough cloud: none of these look like the old Microsoft. Apple doesn't seem to a single play-nice-with-anyone bone in their body. They are fighting tooth & nail for every scrap of control they can keep, doing everything in their power to burn every bridge they can (ending opengl support, ignoring Vulkan). Apple still will hold enormous power for the foreseeable, undoubtedly, but I don't see much parallel to Microsoft. I don't see any redemption ark in progress.

rapsey 3y ago
MS and Apple are fundamentally different companies. Apple is the king of consumer products, MS is the king of B2B. Consumer product companies need to fight for every scrap, B2B need relationships.

Dalewyn 3y ago

Are laptops not mobile?

smt88 3y ago
No, not the way anyone means "mobile" when saying "mobile devices".
- ImPostingOnHN 3y ago
  Most people would think "computer" means laptop, or something along those lines, rather than their phone.
ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
Pick a random time, pick a random person, what are the chances they have a laptop with them? What are the chances they have a phone with them?
prmoustache 3y ago
It depends on what we agree for the definition of mobile. If by mobile you mean transportable, yes they are. But sometimes they are less convenient than some smaller desktop devices[1] If by mobile you mean they can be used in anywhere, you can say more or less. Yes you can use them on your lap, or even very uncomfortably standing up with the laptop in your hand but you are unlikely to do so for more than a few seconds. Apart from students and business travelers, most laptops are just moved from the living room to the kitchen, a desk to a meeting room while powered on, and only transported from home to office. If by mobile you mean you can comfortably use them anywhere on the go, without too much hassle, well they aren't as mobile as smartphones or even tablets. If you look at real estate agents, they mostly only carry their smartphones or a tablet if they want a bigger screen. Very rarely will they pull a macbook from a bag to show you something. When an executive in my company is joining a videocall while parked in his car, he usually use his mobile phone because they find it less convenient to open a laptop, trying to cram it somewhere on the dashboard and share their mobile connection. [1] Even as "transportable" items laptops are sometimes not the best proposition. When I was still working in an office and commuting by bike, I asked my IT department if I could switch from my company issued laptop to a much smaller and less fragile mini barebones computer like the Gigabyte Brix or an intel NUC. They fit more easily in something as simple as a large handlebar bag and can be more easily protected from the elements.

kelthuzad 3y ago

As AI gets progressively more competent, I would assume that it will be much easier for smaller groups of people to come together and give entrenched industry giants a hard time with fierce new competition. Why would otherwise Apple and co already choose lawfare and bad faith tactics to prevent anyone from competing with them on a level playing field?

onion2k 3y ago
Why would otherwise Apple and co already choose lawfare and bad faith tactics to prevent anyone from competing with them on a level playing field? Bad faith tactics from tech companies aren't a new thing, and certainly aren't a response to AI. There a re plenty of examples for Apple here https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Litigation_involving_Apple_Inc https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Litigation_involving_Apple_I.... And if you look at Microsoft there's stuff going back to the 80s.
- kelthuzad 3y ago
  >Bad faith tactics from tech companies aren't a new thing, and certainly aren't a response to AI. I neither insinuated their bad faith tactics to be a response to AI nor did I state that they are new, I made a prediction as response to OP's prediction and I used their current behavior as an indicator for their future behavior.
anonzzzies 3y ago
> give entrenched industry giants a hard time with fierce new competition. Once AI reaches that level, it won’t be a smaller group coming together. The big corps will be there first with more money to get the AIs to come up with a million plans per day and execute a bunch of them a lot faster than small groups can. Currently no one really knows what to do except cook up snake oil, but if indeed AI becomes more competent, the big corps will unfortunately own it and use it at scale.
- kelthuzad 3y ago
  That's definitely a plausible prediction, but since so many people are aware of this, my hope is that we can at least prevent some of their more nefarious lawfare & lobbying such that we make and keep open-source AI competitive.

chucke1992 3y ago

The thing with Microsoft is that they used their classic approach - going the second after the innovator with B2B flavor. Like AWS was the first, but Microsoft went second and used B2B injection. Same with AI - OpenAI was the first, but Microsoft went second and used B2B injection. Even with Office 365 it was basically the same - they injected cloud into B2B. They still are notoriously bad with consumer market though. I think Windows 95 was a nice combo of consumer and B2B success.

realusername 3y ago
It also worked with Teams, the software itself is hot trash and not up to the competitors... but it's pushed in the enterprise offering so it worked. The enterprise side of Microsoft is a wonderful selling machine.
- EraYaN 3y ago
  And since Teams' launch the competitors have also gone full trash, so it all works out for MS. Maybe Hey/Basecamp's new idea ends up being something, but for now it's all kinda clunky Electron apps.
  - piva00 3y ago
    Slack's experience is far, far away from perfect and it manages, at the same time, to be far, far better than whatever Teams offers. Teams is an absolute heap of burning shit, the whole experience is so terrible that what impresses me the most is that it's a sellable product. It's a prime example of how having a good product is not necessary for sales when your sales strategy is a well-oiled machine with deep penetration in the enterprise market.
    - chucke1992 3y ago
      Teams provided extremely good video conferences which was crucial in COVID world and was something that allowed Zoom to go to the moon. Slack was behind in that regard and even now their video offerings are not good or convenient to use at all.

jillesvangurp 3y ago

> And at the moment, there are only two mobile computer makers. Apple and Google. Who both heavily depend on Asian manufacturers that are also producing phones without either Apple's or Google's software bundled for their domestic market. E.g. Huawei is doing pretty well lately and they are no longer getting their software from Google. The operating system moat that Apple and Google enjoy is a lot weaker than the current market suggests. Just because things haven't changed for a while doesn't mean they won't eventually change. A little nudging from judges might force this market to be more open.

ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
Good point. What do the Huawei phones use for maps and search?
- jillesvangurp 3y ago
  This apparently: https://consumer.huawei.com/en/mobileservices/petalmaps/ https://consumer.huawei.com/en/mobileservices/petalmaps/ I wonder where they license their maps ...
  - ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
    Interesting. That makes Google's moat seem smaller than I thought. Do you know what they use for search?
    - jillesvangurp 3y ago
      https://consumer.huawei.com/uk/mobileservices/petalsearch/ https://consumer.huawei.com/uk/mobileservices/petalsearch/ Looks like they did something in house for that as well. Amazon would have the same issues with the Kindle Fire. I think they license Here maps. Not sure if they use Google or Bing.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - 3y ago

card_zero 3y ago

> tailwind ahead This concept is confusing. I guess the headwind will be behind them, too. Wait, so they've completely reversed direction? This begins to sound good.

rightbyte 3y ago
Tailwind (from behind) is easier to sail in, than headwind (from the front). "Ahead" means the wind will blow from behind somewhere in front of you, where you are going.