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My plumber seems pretty safe about AI at least for next century. Unless houses are rebuilt with standards and ease of repairability in mind. But even changing

My plumber seems pretty safe about AI at least for next century. Unless houses are rebuilt with standards and ease of repairability in mind. But even changing all the houses in the world to this new system would take over a hundred years.

tyingq 3y ago
Prepping a young person to be on a path to eventually owning their own plumbing, HVAC, roofing, etc, business does seem a pretty solid plan. Though I suppose AI could be part of something that squashes small businesses and funnels work to huge companies. Which would make that entrepreneur angle a bit harder. There's already a fair amount of SEO gaming to make something that isn't "local" appear to be local.
- Turing_Machine 3y ago
  I'd expect roofing to be less immune. No offense to any roofers out there, but roofing is a lot more formulaic than plumbing or HVAC. I don't think it would be hard at all to design a robot to roof the large flat areas typical of modern architecture (if it can be dignified by that name), maybe with a human or two to make sure the robot keeps working, and to handle any peaks, valleys, plumbing or heating penetrations, or other weird areas.
  - red-iron-pine 3y ago
    yeah but roofs aren't formulaic -- even subtle looking differences == big challenges in climbing and hoisting -- and even if you have rows of tract housing with identical builds you're going to run into problems getting things up there because access, yards, fences, etc. all get difficult and complex. source: used to dispatch for HVAC, roofing, and paving services.
    - Turing_Machine 3y ago
      https://www.renovaterobotics.com/ https://www.renovaterobotics.com/ Are you sure about that?
      - tyingq 3y ago
        "Renovate closes pre-seed to automate roofing" Feels a little early to call.
      - kcplate 3y ago
        Clever, but a low flat gabled roof pitch that requires minimal effort to determine appropriate anchor points is probably a pretty rare roof shape for a lot of homes. When that thing can do a McMansion is when it has a real chance of disrupting the roofing industry.
ben_w 3y ago
I'm old enough to remember people saying that about go. I pitched the idea of an AI directly generating art sometime around 2008, only to have the idea curtly dismissed. Deep Fakes (by a different name) were a plot point in an episode of Sliders, and the audio version a throwaway line in an episode of Babylon 5, at the time I thought each were completely impossible. My bet would be androids doing plumbing around ten years after cars lose their steering wheels; but even then, that's just anchoring on Moore and the available power envelope for a car vs. a bipedal robot.
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  Yes, eventually robots will be able to do plumbing. But if/when robots are doing a majority of plumbing jobs, they'll be doing 99%+ of all jobs. So society will have changed drastically and unknowingly, for better or worse. And that societal change will affect all jobs, robot-replaced or not. So IMO a relatively robot resistant job (like plumber) is as good as a robot proof jobs.
- fuzzythinker 3y ago
  If you've ever tried to squeeze yourself under the kitchen sink, work one hand behind the 5" gap around the garbage disposal, work the other hand around the tiny gap between the garbage disposal and the main sink, try to coordinate the 2 hands to tighten the faucet, then I'm sure you'll agree with OP. We don't even have a commercial robot to unload and store dishes from the dishwasher nor unload and store clothes from dryer. What makes you think robotics will be solved in a century, let alone ten years?
  - ben_w 3y ago
    > If you've ever tried to squeeze yourself under the kitchen sink, work one hand behind the 5" gap around the garbage disposal, work the other hand around the tiny gap between the garbage disposal and the main sink, try to coordinate the 2 hands to tighten the faucet, then I'm sure you'll agree with OP. What's hard for me doesn't tell you anything about what's hard for a differently shaped body, and robots don't need to look like us — two left hands is easy, extra joints is easy. Most robots don't look like us, one way or another. Famously Spot, but there are as many sizes and shapes as there is commercial demand for them. Humanoid ones are popular right now, but I grew up hearing about how that was "actually a bad shape for a robot" (was the past just sour grapes, or are the current humanoid ones CEOs watching too much SciFi?) > We don't even have a commercial robot to unload and store dishes from the dishwasher nor unload and store clothes from dryer. Both dishwashers and clothes driers are special purpose robots designed to solve problems without having to first solve human-level sensation or dexterity. > What makes you think robotics will be solved in a century, let alone ten years? Have you seen demo videos from the last 12 months? The videos are sped up, indicating they're compute-bound; the accuracy of joint positioning, the strength, etc. is already superhuman whenever we want it to be. Quality of vision, that's the hard part. Cars can only lose their steering wheels[0] when that's solved in terms of quality, not before; a Moore-like exponential on reducing electrical power requirements for a fixed level of compute, would take 10 years to reduce power draw by a factor of 100, which seems about right given cars can afford to (regardless of what current hardware actually uses) burn a few kilowatts on an autopilot. [0] Until the Waymo etc. is available everywhere rather than geofenced to a few specific locations, this is still not sufficiently solved despite, yes, having no steering wheel: https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2023/01/05/waymos-new-robotaxi-without-steering-wheel/ https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2023/01/05/waymos-new...
unraveller 3y ago
Why would I pay someone to fix miles of hidden plumbing when I can just place a bedpan on top of the robot vacuum cleaner as he goes past who then hands it off to the septic tank bot. If simple object from A to B manipulation is free & fast then we are going back to medieval times with robot serfs. The pipes will be a vestige remnant like landlines are.

tyingq 3y ago

Prepping a young person to be on a path to eventually owning their own plumbing, HVAC, roofing, etc, business does seem a pretty solid plan. Though I suppose AI could be part of something that squashes small businesses and funnels work to huge companies. Which would make that entrepreneur angle a bit harder. There's already a fair amount of SEO gaming to make something that isn't "local" appear to be local.

Turing_Machine 3y ago
I'd expect roofing to be less immune. No offense to any roofers out there, but roofing is a lot more formulaic than plumbing or HVAC. I don't think it would be hard at all to design a robot to roof the large flat areas typical of modern architecture (if it can be dignified by that name), maybe with a human or two to make sure the robot keeps working, and to handle any peaks, valleys, plumbing or heating penetrations, or other weird areas.
- red-iron-pine 3y ago
  yeah but roofs aren't formulaic -- even subtle looking differences == big challenges in climbing and hoisting -- and even if you have rows of tract housing with identical builds you're going to run into problems getting things up there because access, yards, fences, etc. all get difficult and complex. source: used to dispatch for HVAC, roofing, and paving services.
  - Turing_Machine 3y ago
    https://www.renovaterobotics.com/ https://www.renovaterobotics.com/ Are you sure about that?
    - tyingq 3y ago
      "Renovate closes pre-seed to automate roofing" Feels a little early to call.
    - kcplate 3y ago
      Clever, but a low flat gabled roof pitch that requires minimal effort to determine appropriate anchor points is probably a pretty rare roof shape for a lot of homes. When that thing can do a McMansion is when it has a real chance of disrupting the roofing industry.

ben_w 3y ago

I'm old enough to remember people saying that about go. I pitched the idea of an AI directly generating art sometime around 2008, only to have the idea curtly dismissed. Deep Fakes (by a different name) were a plot point in an episode of Sliders, and the audio version a throwaway line in an episode of Babylon 5, at the time I thought each were completely impossible. My bet would be androids doing plumbing around ten years after cars lose their steering wheels; but even then, that's just anchoring on Moore and the available power envelope for a car vs. a bipedal robot.

bryanlarsen 3y ago
Yes, eventually robots will be able to do plumbing. But if/when robots are doing a majority of plumbing jobs, they'll be doing 99%+ of all jobs. So society will have changed drastically and unknowingly, for better or worse. And that societal change will affect all jobs, robot-replaced or not. So IMO a relatively robot resistant job (like plumber) is as good as a robot proof jobs.
fuzzythinker 3y ago
If you've ever tried to squeeze yourself under the kitchen sink, work one hand behind the 5" gap around the garbage disposal, work the other hand around the tiny gap between the garbage disposal and the main sink, try to coordinate the 2 hands to tighten the faucet, then I'm sure you'll agree with OP. We don't even have a commercial robot to unload and store dishes from the dishwasher nor unload and store clothes from dryer. What makes you think robotics will be solved in a century, let alone ten years?
- ben_w 3y ago
  > If you've ever tried to squeeze yourself under the kitchen sink, work one hand behind the 5" gap around the garbage disposal, work the other hand around the tiny gap between the garbage disposal and the main sink, try to coordinate the 2 hands to tighten the faucet, then I'm sure you'll agree with OP. What's hard for me doesn't tell you anything about what's hard for a differently shaped body, and robots don't need to look like us — two left hands is easy, extra joints is easy. Most robots don't look like us, one way or another. Famously Spot, but there are as many sizes and shapes as there is commercial demand for them. Humanoid ones are popular right now, but I grew up hearing about how that was "actually a bad shape for a robot" (was the past just sour grapes, or are the current humanoid ones CEOs watching too much SciFi?) > We don't even have a commercial robot to unload and store dishes from the dishwasher nor unload and store clothes from dryer. Both dishwashers and clothes driers are special purpose robots designed to solve problems without having to first solve human-level sensation or dexterity. > What makes you think robotics will be solved in a century, let alone ten years? Have you seen demo videos from the last 12 months? The videos are sped up, indicating they're compute-bound; the accuracy of joint positioning, the strength, etc. is already superhuman whenever we want it to be. Quality of vision, that's the hard part. Cars can only lose their steering wheels[0] when that's solved in terms of quality, not before; a Moore-like exponential on reducing electrical power requirements for a fixed level of compute, would take 10 years to reduce power draw by a factor of 100, which seems about right given cars can afford to (regardless of what current hardware actually uses) burn a few kilowatts on an autopilot. [0] Until the Waymo etc. is available everywhere rather than geofenced to a few specific locations, this is still not sufficiently solved despite, yes, having no steering wheel: https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2023/01/05/waymos-new-robotaxi-without-steering-wheel/ https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2023/01/05/waymos-new...

unraveller 3y ago

Why would I pay someone to fix miles of hidden plumbing when I can just place a bedpan on top of the robot vacuum cleaner as he goes past who then hands it off to the septic tank bot. If simple object from A to B manipulation is free & fast then we are going back to medieval times with robot serfs. The pipes will be a vestige remnant like landlines are.