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The Tragedy of John Mearsheimer (2023)

BXLE_1-1-BitIs1 3y ago
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hackandthink 3y ago
You don't have to like him. But he's right more often than he's wrong, which is unusual for a political scientist. Sometimes he comes across as gloating when he notes the stupidity and failure of the foreign policy establishment. But that's fine, the way he's attacked.
- staunton 3y ago
  Is there a (preferably somewhat complete) list of predictions he's made publicly? I don't know a single one. Maybe some examples of his predictions that were correct or incorrect?
  - everybodyknows 3y ago
    There's a Youtube video of a talk in which he predicts Putin will "wreck" Ukraine. Can't find it now -- Youtube unsearchabilty. However, there's this from 2023: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/the-darkness-ahead-where-the-ukraine https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/the-darkness-ahead-where-...
  - hackandthink 3y ago
    I don't see any topic where he was really off the mark. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Mearsheimer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Mearsheimer e.g. "Persian Gulf War" - "All of those predictions came true during the course of the war" Ukraine: Putin will wreck it Lebanon war: a desaster Israel: "In fact, he argued that relations between Israel and the Palestinians were likely to get worse in the years ahead" He predicted "that the United States was destined to compete aggressively with China" correctly. China becoming aggressive is still open.
    - staunton 3y ago
      > I don't see any topic where he was really off the mark. Did you read the article? He admits himself that he was wrong about whether Russia would launch a full-scale attack on Ukraine.
deleted 3y ago
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magnio 3y ago
> Then in 2006, along with his co-author Stephen Walt, he wrote “The Israel Lobby”, which examined the complex of organisations that sought to encourage the US to provide material aid to Israel, often against American strategic interests. It was subsequently published as a book in 2007, and the argument saw Mearsheimer and Walt labelled as anti-Semitic, liars and bigots. "An anti-Semite used to be a person who disliked Jews. Now it is a person who Jews dislike."—Hajo Meyer, Holocaust survivor. The Ukraine war exposes the worst of what the media can be like during times of conflicts. There are calls for the West to wage war on Russia, but what is more alarming is dismissal of such calls are met with fervent diatribes. Such attacks are nothing new of course: La Follete warned us from more than 100 years ago.[0] While the situation continues to escalate, the Western elites is unapologetically happy to be able to bleed Russia without spilling their own bloods, sacrificing only the people of another nation.[1] [0]: https://history.hanover.edu/courses/excerpts/336lafollette.html https://history.hanover.edu/courses/excerpts/336lafollette.h... [1]: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/11/opinion/russia-ukraine-war-america.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/11/opinion/russia-ukraine-wa...
- jnsaff2 3y ago
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You don't have to like him. But he's right more often than he's wrong, which is unusual for a political scientist. Sometimes he comes across as gloating when he notes the stupidity and failure of the foreign policy establishment. But that's fine, the way he's attacked.

staunton 3y ago
Is there a (preferably somewhat complete) list of predictions he's made publicly? I don't know a single one. Maybe some examples of his predictions that were correct or incorrect?
- everybodyknows 3y ago
  There's a Youtube video of a talk in which he predicts Putin will "wreck" Ukraine. Can't find it now -- Youtube unsearchabilty. However, there's this from 2023: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/the-darkness-ahead-where-the-ukraine https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/the-darkness-ahead-where-...
- hackandthink 3y ago
  I don't see any topic where he was really off the mark. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Mearsheimer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Mearsheimer e.g. "Persian Gulf War" - "All of those predictions came true during the course of the war" Ukraine: Putin will wreck it Lebanon war: a desaster Israel: "In fact, he argued that relations between Israel and the Palestinians were likely to get worse in the years ahead" He predicted "that the United States was destined to compete aggressively with China" correctly. China becoming aggressive is still open.
  - staunton 3y ago
    > I don't see any topic where he was really off the mark. Did you read the article? He admits himself that he was wrong about whether Russia would launch a full-scale attack on Ukraine.

deleted 3y ago

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magnio 3y ago

> Then in 2006, along with his co-author Stephen Walt, he wrote “The Israel Lobby”, which examined the complex of organisations that sought to encourage the US to provide material aid to Israel, often against American strategic interests. It was subsequently published as a book in 2007, and the argument saw Mearsheimer and Walt labelled as anti-Semitic, liars and bigots. "An anti-Semite used to be a person who disliked Jews. Now it is a person who Jews dislike."—Hajo Meyer, Holocaust survivor. The Ukraine war exposes the worst of what the media can be like during times of conflicts. There are calls for the West to wage war on Russia, but what is more alarming is dismissal of such calls are met with fervent diatribes. Such attacks are nothing new of course: La Follete warned us from more than 100 years ago.[0] While the situation continues to escalate, the Western elites is unapologetically happy to be able to bleed Russia without spilling their own bloods, sacrificing only the people of another nation.[1] [0]: https://history.hanover.edu/courses/excerpts/336lafollette.html https://history.hanover.edu/courses/excerpts/336lafollette.h... [1]: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/11/opinion/russia-ukraine-war-america.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/11/opinion/russia-ukraine-wa...

jnsaff2 3y ago
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