4 ms·
Uncorrelated is the key word IMHO. And I wouldn't say it is liquid, but that's a good thing here IMHO too. A lot of asset management is for pensions. This mean
by BenoitP 3y ago
Uncorrelated is the key word IMHO. And I wouldn't say it is liquid, but that's a good thing here IMHO too.
A lot of asset management is for pensions. This means that long term stability is quite important, and when designing portfolios negative or neutral correlations are highly desired (square deviation sigma goes down with weighted sum of correlation coefficients here [1]).
One one hand all companies rely on energy, electricity and gas and oil. To transform matter, to transport goods. Despite being a few percent GDP, energy is a multiplier/enabler of economic activity. Electricity's price is also being defined at the margin by peaker gas plants. And gas price is also highly linked to oil.
On the other hand, Bitcoins being mostly 'hodled' their price would be greatly defined by the block rewards. Which cost of is function of electrical scarcity. The highest the electricity price, the more it cost to produce the same amount of Bitcoin as per the consensus hash rate adjustments.
It's not perfect analysis, and I have not crunched the numbers; but I would not be surprised for Bitcoin to have negative or neutral correlations to a lot of assets because of energy.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_portfolio_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_portfolio_theory
- rafaelero 3y agoI don't think energy prices are important for BTC. If energy prices rise and it becomes unaffordable to mine, the network will adjust the difficulty level. The only input that matters for BTC performance is demand.
- Fire-Dragon-DoL 3y agoWhat about gpu prices? Those seemed to be a make-or-break aspect of bitcoin mining procesd
- dwaltrip 3y agoBitcoin mining is all ASIC and has been for years, I’m pretty sure.
- npoc 3y agoCost of energy is irrelevant - the difficulty adjustment compensates for it. Anyway, unwanted energy will always be close to free.