3 ms·
Would you apply the same line of reasoning to flying? That branch of engineering had a huge amount of detractors too who were confidently right until they weren
by uh_uh 3y ago
Would you apply the same line of reasoning to flying? That branch of engineering had a huge amount of detractors too who were confidently right until they weren't. My point is, no one knows how close we are to AGI. Taking the sceptical stance is rewarding because you're right most of the time, except when you aren't in which case you're astronomically wrong.
- dataflow 3y ago> Would you apply the same line of reasoning to flying? No, because I have no idea who predicted what at which point in time. Or yes, because it took [hundreds? thousands?] of years before someone managed to get it to work. We've only worked on LLMs for so long. i.e. I have no idea how to answer your question, other than to point out the prediction here was not "never", but rather "not in the next 10 years".