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I'll bet against that. NVIDIA's margin is so large that Google/Microsoft and others can fund / are funding large teams to make TPUs and other dedicated hardware

by krapht 3y ago

I'll bet against that. NVIDIA's margin is so large that Google/Microsoft and others can fund / are funding large teams to make TPUs and other dedicated hardware competitive. I also believe LLMs are part of the hype cycle just like crypto. In ten years the gaming market will return to being NVIDIA's primary market.

CuriouslyC 3y ago
If by "LLMs are part of the hype cycle" you mean "people are hyping them more than their current capabilities entirely warrant" maybe. If you mean "LLMs are a hype technology that is going to peter out without leaving a major impact on society" as kindly as I can phrase it, what on earth are you smoking, or are you Amish?
- hnfong 3y ago
  To be fair, GP compared the LLM hype with crypto... And as niche crypto may be in the future, I don't think it will also "peter out without leaving a major impact on society"...
  - KetoManx64 3y ago
    Crypto will not be niche in the future. Bitcoin has a market cap of 1,349,125,982,176 (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) and recently surpassed the market cap of gold itself and has large investors from Black Rock to Apple, ans recently got approved for ETFs which means the general population's 401k's will have bitcoin in them starting this year. Other crypto currencies may die out, but bitcoin is here permanantly. If you haven't yet, buy some bitcoin and stop letting the government steal your hard earned money through inflation.
hnfong 3y ago
A couple factors to consider: 1. The hardware isn't nVidia's primary moat. CUDA is. Currently all machine learning tooling assumes you have a CUDA device. 2. The hype cycle may be real, but nobody really knows how much better AI will become. The uncertainty is driving the hype (which is obviously on the optimistic side), but it could well be that models become so good that everyone "needs" an AI chip like how we "need" a smartphone today. 3. The gaming/graphics market is probably going to slowly shrink. There's only so many pixels you can push to the eye. There's very real diminishing returns there. At some point people literally won't be able to tell the difference between the newer/better/faster graphics and the older generation, at which point the GPU vendor's margins drop significantly.
- weebull 3y ago
  > 1. The hardware isn't nVidia's primary moat. CUDA is. People really don't appreciate this. So many times I see people comment that AMD should implement CUDA and not try to get software to move standard. AMD have a massive task ahead because they NEED to get CUDA unseated just to play on a level playing ground, let alone win.

by krapht 3y ago

CuriouslyC 3y ago

If by "LLMs are part of the hype cycle" you mean "people are hyping them more than their current capabilities entirely warrant" maybe. If you mean "LLMs are a hype technology that is going to peter out without leaving a major impact on society" as kindly as I can phrase it, what on earth are you smoking, or are you Amish?

hnfong 3y ago
To be fair, GP compared the LLM hype with crypto... And as niche crypto may be in the future, I don't think it will also "peter out without leaving a major impact on society"...
- KetoManx64 3y ago
  Crypto will not be niche in the future. Bitcoin has a market cap of 1,349,125,982,176 (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) and recently surpassed the market cap of gold itself and has large investors from Black Rock to Apple, ans recently got approved for ETFs which means the general population's 401k's will have bitcoin in them starting this year. Other crypto currencies may die out, but bitcoin is here permanantly. If you haven't yet, buy some bitcoin and stop letting the government steal your hard earned money through inflation.

hnfong 3y ago

A couple factors to consider: 1. The hardware isn't nVidia's primary moat. CUDA is. Currently all machine learning tooling assumes you have a CUDA device. 2. The hype cycle may be real, but nobody really knows how much better AI will become. The uncertainty is driving the hype (which is obviously on the optimistic side), but it could well be that models become so good that everyone "needs" an AI chip like how we "need" a smartphone today. 3. The gaming/graphics market is probably going to slowly shrink. There's only so many pixels you can push to the eye. There's very real diminishing returns there. At some point people literally won't be able to tell the difference between the newer/better/faster graphics and the older generation, at which point the GPU vendor's margins drop significantly.

weebull 3y ago
> 1. The hardware isn't nVidia's primary moat. CUDA is. People really don't appreciate this. So many times I see people comment that AMD should implement CUDA and not try to get software to move standard. AMD have a massive task ahead because they NEED to get CUDA unseated just to play on a level playing ground, let alone win.