Is it? Isn't this like saying "any civilization that is able to launch rockets into space and land someone on their planet's Moon would be hilariously unlikely

Is it? Isn't this like saying "any civilization that is able to launch rockets into space and land someone on their planet's Moon would be hilariously unlikely to crash-land anything on Mars, or be suffering basic takeoff failures for rockets decades later". Yet that is what happens to humanity. If an alien race did develop FTL travel then it makes sense that they'd make a beeline for the most interesting things in their local vicinity, and it makes sense that the most interesting thing would be a planet with intelligent life on it. So we'd expect a visit from nearby aliens soon after they invent FTL. But that means they'd be doing so when the tech is new and the kinks are still being worked out - they'd be doing the equivalent of voyages across the Atlantic in the 1600s. You'd expect a fairly high accident rate.