4 ms·

Batteries take a long time to charge and I believe time on road is a bigger cost factor. Hydrogen can do ~1000 KM (prototype from Daimler) vs 3300 KM for diesel

Batteries take a long time to charge and I believe time on road is a bigger cost factor. Hydrogen can do ~1000 KM (prototype from Daimler) vs 3300 KM for diesel trucks. Refill time is ~30 min to full compared to 5 minutes for diesel. The Tesla semi claims to do ~800 KM and can get back 560 miles after 30 minutes. So the EV semi is ~40-50% the efficiency of a hydrogen one. Now of course, there may be ancillary reasons why EV might still win (e.g. batteries continue to scale better because they have so many more uses & thus get better economies of scale). Ultimately though, I’m not 100% sure battery production can keep up. Lithium production is growing by ~20% YoY and that’s just from transitioning a small portion of our automotive fleet to EV. Getting to 100% consumer automotive EV may bump by 2035 which is a common target may bump that up as would using it for grid scale storage. It’ll be interesting to see how the price of lithium keeps up with that increased demand as we exhaust the easily accessible deposits and have to start mining more expensive deposits. You’re probably right about e-kerosene for aviation and ammonia for shipping although neither of those is actually net 0 in practice (+ emit all sorts of noxious other gasses). Hydrogen would probably be the cleanest although it has larger logistical challenges.

bryanlarsen 3y ago
Truckers are required to stop for 30 minutes every 4 hours. That's enough time to add another 4 hours of range to a battery. If we had a lithium shortage the price would be spiking. Instead it's crashing. There are only a few kilograms of lithium in each vehicle battery, so the expanded supply is able to keep up. https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php?c=li&u=kg&d=240 https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php?c=li&u=... P.S. A diesel semi either has extra tanks so it can go 3000km or it doesn't and can fill in 5 minutes, but not both. Not that it affects your point.
- vlovich123 3y ago
  > The current decline in lithium prices can be primarily attributed to the slowing growth of electric vehicle sales in China. This is coupled with the broader slowdown in the Chinese economy. https://carboncredits.com/why-lithium-prices-are-plunging-and-what-to-expect https://carboncredits.com/why-lithium-prices-are-plunging-an... > California and the federal government had different rules related to the number of hours truckers may drive without a break. Under California law, truckers must take a 30-minute off-duty rest break for every five hours worked and a 10-minute off-duty break for every four-hour period. > Federal law, on the other hand, required fewer breaks, less often. In the court case IBT v. FMCSA, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the FMCSA’s decision to preempt California’s meal and rest break rules. The court upheld that interstate drivers are exempt from California’s meal and rest break rules because they are “incompatible” with federal regulations. > Barring an unexpected reversal by the U.S. Supreme Court, truckers in California will satisfy their meal and break obligations under federal regulations without the need to abide by California’s laws in this matter. > Specifically, these federal rules mandate a break of at least 30 consecutive minutes after 8 cumulative hours of driving time. It’s 30 minutes of break time every 8 hours not every 4 and the only time it was close to that was temporarily while California had regs that were in effect until SCOTUS overturned. https://www.gbw.law/blog/2021/march/what-are-california-s-rest-period-laws-for-truck https://www.gbw.law/blog/2021/march/what-are-california-s-re... I think you’re right though about long haul trucking in the near term though - I think EVs will probably move first if Tesla scales up production this year & capture the market and mind share and hydrogen will not be able to compete and you’re right about aviation in the short term. Shipping though is ambiguous because it’s still too early to tell who’s winning and aviation may switch long term as part of a decarbonization and anti-pollution push if that ever happens.

bryanlarsen 3y ago

Truckers are required to stop for 30 minutes every 4 hours. That's enough time to add another 4 hours of range to a battery. If we had a lithium shortage the price would be spiking. Instead it's crashing. There are only a few kilograms of lithium in each vehicle battery, so the expanded supply is able to keep up. https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php?c=li&u=kg&d=240 https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php?c=li&u=... P.S. A diesel semi either has extra tanks so it can go 3000km or it doesn't and can fill in 5 minutes, but not both. Not that it affects your point.

vlovich123 3y ago
> The current decline in lithium prices can be primarily attributed to the slowing growth of electric vehicle sales in China. This is coupled with the broader slowdown in the Chinese economy. https://carboncredits.com/why-lithium-prices-are-plunging-and-what-to-expect https://carboncredits.com/why-lithium-prices-are-plunging-an... > California and the federal government had different rules related to the number of hours truckers may drive without a break. Under California law, truckers must take a 30-minute off-duty rest break for every five hours worked and a 10-minute off-duty break for every four-hour period. > Federal law, on the other hand, required fewer breaks, less often. In the court case IBT v. FMCSA, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the FMCSA’s decision to preempt California’s meal and rest break rules. The court upheld that interstate drivers are exempt from California’s meal and rest break rules because they are “incompatible” with federal regulations. > Barring an unexpected reversal by the U.S. Supreme Court, truckers in California will satisfy their meal and break obligations under federal regulations without the need to abide by California’s laws in this matter. > Specifically, these federal rules mandate a break of at least 30 consecutive minutes after 8 cumulative hours of driving time. It’s 30 minutes of break time every 8 hours not every 4 and the only time it was close to that was temporarily while California had regs that were in effect until SCOTUS overturned. https://www.gbw.law/blog/2021/march/what-are-california-s-rest-period-laws-for-truck https://www.gbw.law/blog/2021/march/what-are-california-s-re... I think you’re right though about long haul trucking in the near term though - I think EVs will probably move first if Tesla scales up production this year & capture the market and mind share and hydrogen will not be able to compete and you’re right about aviation in the short term. Shipping though is ambiguous because it’s still too early to tell who’s winning and aviation may switch long term as part of a decarbonization and anti-pollution push if that ever happens.