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My prediction: the advance of tech by AI will far surpasse what it consume in energy. To look at the energy consumption of current model is extremely short sig
by alfor 3y ago
My prediction: the advance of tech by AI will far surpasse what it consume in energy.
To look at the energy consumption of current model is extremely short sighted. If AI create a new material, a new solar cell, advance fusion reactor is all of humanity that jump forward.
Furthermore new generation of AI accelerators and new algorithms will improve efficiency by order of magnitute, it's still early days.
- epolanski 3y agoIf anything your post convinces me that (ab)use of AI will become more ubiquitous and the energy demands much higher.
- salawat 3y agoFor every good thing, come up with a bad. The material created will be a better poison/virus. The algorithm to keep the fusion tokamak from going boom will be at best 99% correct. The new solar cell? More exotic materials required than the current. Blind optimism is a vice we cannot afford.
- neglesaks 3y agoThe post you're responding to doesn't argue from blind optimism, it argued a reasonably-expected gain in net beneficial effects.
- salawat 3y agoNonono. Reasonable is when you communicate the tradeoffs. More efficient, but more complex supply chain. Easier to immediately build, but we have to quadruple the computing power per cubic meter of reactor. More frequently discovered materials, but Uncle Ted can nail down the synthesis of the next VX, and a dispersal system in his garage. Someone comes to me talking net gains. My next question is, "What's under the sheet you don't want to address out loud?" Under there is most often the real meat of the endeavor.
- alfor 3y agoI agree with you too. It's much easier to destroy and to enslave than to create something good. There I was thinking of the possible positive vs electricity cost. Yes we might doom us all with AI. I hope the good win, wild time.
- xniclb 3y agoIs there any evidence to base this prediction on, or is this just a hunch? So far I've only seen questionable outcome.
- sandspar 3y agoWe live in a time of wild guesses.
- klabb3 3y ago> If AI create a new material, a new solar cell, advance fusion reactor is all of humanity that jump forward. Putting aside that AI is terrible at novel discovery relative to its abilities otherwise, the direction of new technology is governed by incentives, not hypothetical good for humanity. Take social media as an example, which certainly had potential for good. How was it deployed? By which actors? To what end? And what were the unintended consequences? Not saying it’s all bad, but the utopia of the world becoming more connected and empathetic from the social-topological changes is clearly not the dominant outcome.