> There is also no reason to believe Russia will go any further than Ukraine It's exactly the opposite: Russia has no reason to stop. Arms industry is ramping

> There is also no reason to believe Russia will go any further than Ukraine It's exactly the opposite: Russia has no reason to stop. Arms industry is ramping up, domestic population has been beaten into submission and can't even organize a single major protest, and governments in the west are under complacent illusion that Putin will stop any moment now. Why stop at Ukraine? You say NATO and nuclear weapons. Are you going to press the button if you are afraid of sending long-range conventional missiles? Of course not. Long shots like flirting with MAGA to delay tens of billions worth of military aid have also paid off spectacularly. Russia is punching way above their weight because of foolish illusions about their intentions. This is very reminiscent of the Phony War phase of WWII. Poland had been invaded, but international support for Poland was much weaker than it could've been, because UK, France and others were irrationally afraid of Germany. They had 110 divisions in the west against German 23, but did not put them into action. After the war, multiple German generals (Alfred Jodl, for example, chief of operations at German high command) said that had allied forces attacked them from the west, Germany would've held on for only 2 weeks at best. Hesitation gave the initiative to Germans and we all know how that went.