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Nah, I think Microsoft will end up buying some form of assets off of OpenAI (it's a non-profit with odd corporate governance that Altman doesn't own stock in, s

Nah, I think Microsoft will end up buying some form of assets off of OpenAI (it's a non-profit with odd corporate governance that Altman doesn't own stock in, so I don't think they'll buy the whole company) for an extremely exorbitant price. Altman will put in some ambitious but clueless Microsoft manager to run it and move on to his next thing. Then it'll turn out that Gen AI is dramatically overhyped and the real-world utility is far less than expected. Shit'll get fucked up, people will forget about it, and Microsoft will write down their investment by a large margin - kinda like Hotmail, and Skype, and Nokia, and Minecraft, and what's starting to happen to GitHub and LinkedIn. And so it goes, a classic Silicon Valley love story. But I have enough faith in Altman's ability to fuck shit up without facing personal consequences that I'm pretty sure he'll navigate some sort of sale before everything goes south.

Dalewyn 3y ago
[flagged]
- nostrademons 3y ago
  Nah, Steve Jobs would need to be alive for that, and they haven't come out with iResurrection yet. The public hasn't really thrown themselves into reverence for Apple since the last Jobs product announcement. Even the Apple Watch's reception was kinda lukewarm. They make good hardware, but they aren't cool hype machines the way they were a decade+ ago.
  - jorl17 3y ago
    What about Apple Silicon? Not a product per se, but...
    - nostrademons 3y ago
      I think the reaction to it was qualitatively different from the iPhone or even iPod/iPad. The M1 is a great chip, and everybody acknowledged it as a great chip. Nobody claimed it would create a whole new category of products, or a whole new ecosystem. Nobody quit their job to become an M1 developer. Nobody started forking out hundreds of dollar per hour for people who did. In Clayton Christenson terms, it was a sustaining innovation rather than a disruptive one.
    - axlee 3y ago
      No one outside of select circles cares.
    - Jensson 3y ago
      Apple started making their own silicon under Steve Jobs, nothing new there either.
    - asadotzler 3y ago
      what about Coke's move from cane sugar to high fructose corn syrup? isn't that revolutionary and didn't that get the public excited?
atleastoptimal 3y ago
Your appraisal seems to stem from a lot of people's disillusionment with the whole OpenAI thing: namely that GenAI is a hype train and will fade away as a gimmicky toy with limited real world-use cases. It's interesting seeing that perspective, because while I think it's based on a comparison of GenAI with prior "change everything" hype trains (VR, crypto), it's clearly not the same, and you and most people really don't understand just how much everything is about to change. GenAI isn't just any other technology. > real-world utility is far less than expected The real-world utility is already enormous in the form it is now. You really think there's no real-world utility to GPT-4, Claude, and all the models that are coming out?
- halfmatthalfcat 3y ago
  > most people really don't understand just how much everything is about to change So instead of hedging and saying "it's going to change some things", you play into the "it's going to change everything?". Its stereotypical grandstanding when nobody really knows what is going to happen. The AI bros and AI deniers are both exhausting crowds.
  - atleastoptimal 3y ago
    because it will change everything everything good in your life is because of applied intelligence now imagine 1000x the intelligence at 1000x the intensity
    - algorias 3y ago
      I can imagine it. You're skipping over the actually hard part, which is the question of where the current AI paradigm will top out. Don't pretend this is not an open question.
    - lewhoo 3y ago
      > everything good in your life is because of applied intelligence If this is true then everything bad in my life is also due to applied intelligence as intelligence itself doesn't have a moral connotation. "[N]ow imagine 1000x the intelligence at 1000x the intensity". Both claims (everything good/bad because of intelligence) sound false to me. I guess the litmus test to the 1000x engineer (for example) is do we have 1000x the speed of product development.
sage76 3y ago
> Altman will put in some ambitious but clueless Microsoft manager to run it and move on to his next thing Gervais principle agrees with you.

Dalewyn 3y ago

[flagged]

nostrademons 3y ago
Nah, Steve Jobs would need to be alive for that, and they haven't come out with iResurrection yet. The public hasn't really thrown themselves into reverence for Apple since the last Jobs product announcement. Even the Apple Watch's reception was kinda lukewarm. They make good hardware, but they aren't cool hype machines the way they were a decade+ ago.
- jorl17 3y ago
  What about Apple Silicon? Not a product per se, but...
  - nostrademons 3y ago
    I think the reaction to it was qualitatively different from the iPhone or even iPod/iPad. The M1 is a great chip, and everybody acknowledged it as a great chip. Nobody claimed it would create a whole new category of products, or a whole new ecosystem. Nobody quit their job to become an M1 developer. Nobody started forking out hundreds of dollar per hour for people who did. In Clayton Christenson terms, it was a sustaining innovation rather than a disruptive one.
  - axlee 3y ago
    No one outside of select circles cares.
  - Jensson 3y ago
    Apple started making their own silicon under Steve Jobs, nothing new there either.
  - asadotzler 3y ago
    what about Coke's move from cane sugar to high fructose corn syrup? isn't that revolutionary and didn't that get the public excited?

atleastoptimal 3y ago

Your appraisal seems to stem from a lot of people's disillusionment with the whole OpenAI thing: namely that GenAI is a hype train and will fade away as a gimmicky toy with limited real world-use cases. It's interesting seeing that perspective, because while I think it's based on a comparison of GenAI with prior "change everything" hype trains (VR, crypto), it's clearly not the same, and you and most people really don't understand just how much everything is about to change. GenAI isn't just any other technology. > real-world utility is far less than expected The real-world utility is already enormous in the form it is now. You really think there's no real-world utility to GPT-4, Claude, and all the models that are coming out?

halfmatthalfcat 3y ago
> most people really don't understand just how much everything is about to change So instead of hedging and saying "it's going to change some things", you play into the "it's going to change everything?". Its stereotypical grandstanding when nobody really knows what is going to happen. The AI bros and AI deniers are both exhausting crowds.
- atleastoptimal 3y ago
  because it will change everything everything good in your life is because of applied intelligence now imagine 1000x the intelligence at 1000x the intensity
  - algorias 3y ago
    I can imagine it. You're skipping over the actually hard part, which is the question of where the current AI paradigm will top out. Don't pretend this is not an open question.
  - lewhoo 3y ago
    > everything good in your life is because of applied intelligence If this is true then everything bad in my life is also due to applied intelligence as intelligence itself doesn't have a moral connotation. "[N]ow imagine 1000x the intelligence at 1000x the intensity". Both claims (everything good/bad because of intelligence) sound false to me. I guess the litmus test to the 1000x engineer (for example) is do we have 1000x the speed of product development.

sage76 3y ago

> Altman will put in some ambitious but clueless Microsoft manager to run it and move on to his next thing Gervais principle agrees with you.