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I think the article gets it wrong when it says nationalism is the biggest issue the UBI movement currently faces. Our current waves of nationalism have populist

I think the article gets it wrong when it says nationalism is the biggest issue the UBI movement currently faces. Our current waves of nationalism have populist roots, and therefore is not inherently incompatible with UBI policies. However, as stated in the article, the current UBI movement is generally left-of-center; and there is a lot of reactionary opposition (atleast in the USA) to anything that comes from the other side. I think the bigger issue is that there is a common, albeit misguided notion that UBI would create inflationary pressure. This fear was made worse by the current inflationary environment. Covid relief was made the boogeyman for inflation out of political expediency. On the plus side, the advancement of AI, and the threat of widespread job loss creates a positive talking point that can possibly help counteract that.

bequanna 3y ago
> I think the bigger issue is that there is a common, albeit misguided notion that UBI would create inflationary pressure. Well, because it is perfectly intuitive to think it will cause inflation: The Fed printing money to fund Government deficit spending absolutely increases inflation. UBI is additional Government spending. Additionally, reducing the supply of labor increases the cost of labor, which causes inflation. I think the onus is the proponents of UBI to somehow prove that if this is done at scale it will NOT cause inflation. > On the plus side, the advancement of AI, and the threat of widespread job loss creates a positive talking point that can possibly help counteract that. Academics have been making these doomsday "automation will cause labor surplus" predictions since forever. When exactly can we expect them to materialize? I'd love some cheaper labor so I can build an affordable home.
- CrackerNews 3y ago
  I think if you follow where the money goes, that will be whether UBI causes inflation or not. In the best case, it results in a virtuous cycle where growth is created and sustained. In the worst case, it further inflates the value of low supply goods. This will most likely be up to market conditions along with business models/strategies and productive capabilities of various industries and marketplaces and how they will weigh out. In the example of housing however, I don't think UBI will help because the business model is dependent on inflating prices of homes as investment vehicles. The price must go up one way or another. What actually bring home prices down would be something like a market crash where investment expectations are muted. Cheaper labor however comes from offshore countries that have a lower standard of living. If average wages go up, then domestic workers will expect that as a baseline. A business can pay above the average for above average workers, and vice versa. The expectation of hiring cheaper immigrant labor is getting the same level of expertise for cheaper. This does not always go to plan, which is why there is still some demand for domestic workers and their expertise. Automation may have a similar effect but without the same virtuous cycle to offshore countries as before. (Not to mention that the difference between revenue and cheaper labor cost is incentivized to be kept as business profits, which doesn't mean that prices go down since demand and supply now expects higher prices as the market baseline.)
  - bequanna 3y ago
    > Cheaper labor however comes from offshore countries that have a lower standard of living. Please explain why wages went up significantly for low income workers during the pandemic. The answer (of course) is that we artificially decreased the pool of available workers by paying people to stay home for an extended period—-exactly what UBI would like to do. The price of labor is simple supply and demand. If we pay the lower skilled people the same amount they would make from waiting tables or swinging a hammer, why would anyone want to do that work? I don’t get it. Why do people make these complicated, purely academic arguments in support of UBI? It’s obviously going to increase taxes and increase inflation. It’s obviously bad for the people who choose to actually work, save and pay taxes.
    - TalEs 3y ago
      I think you are unsure of how UBI works. It is not paying people to stay at home, it is just a modification of tax brackets, such that people below a certain level pay negative taxes, aka receive money to live and survive. Unlike now, where everyone has to pay taxes, even the poor. UBI does not need an increase in taxes, just a proper tiering of it, such that the ultra rich pay more to support society better. By having people who pay negative taxes, they are not burdened with living paycheck to paycheck and can focus on improving their lives. If you are working, saving and paying your proportionate taxes, UBI should not affect you in any way. It's just a fix for rampant capitalism, where the rich are supposedly working millions of times harder than their exploited working class.
      - bequanna 3y ago
        > receive money to live and survive I’m not sure you know how generous the current welfare system is. Low income people can already receive assistance for: housing, food, internet, phones, completely free medical care and straight up cash. Not to mention that we have made it incredibly easy to claim disability for anyone who essentially doesn’t want to work. …but in addition to that, you’re telling me I should be giving more of my money to them? I have sympathy but I also have a limit. Also, where are these “literally starving” people in the US? Other than mentally ill who have difficulty taking advantage of the many services available, I have yet to encounter them.
- jiggawatts 3y ago
  Who said anything about “printing” money!? In all serious contexts — not kids arguing on Reddit — the concept of UBI is just an adjustment of tax brackets such that people below a certain threshold pay negative tax. This is offset by higher taxes in the super rich. It’s basically saying that Bezos does not work one million times harder than the staff working in his warehouses. Staff that are literally starving in many cases.
  - drekipus 3y ago
    > just an adjustment of tax brackets such that people below a certain threshold pay negative tax This makes sense, and I am totally for this, as a current "total naysayer" against UBI. Infact, I wish that "negative tax" was the flag bearing. I am totally 100% for that idea. I am against the notion of UBI because it is too all encompassing and I am not confident that a singular system can handle all of the variables. In my view (and from my discussions) it's framed as: - "everyone gets an extra $X amount a week." - "even the rich people so why are you complaining." - "studies have shown that worker engagement has actually risen or remained steady, hasn't dropped at all" - " it was shown that it made everyone way happier and productive" But where does the money come from? "Small trials in Finland shows that they didn't need to get extra money it just happened and it's easy as that so why are you against it????"
    - jiggawatts 3y ago
      The most common UBI variant is to simply give everyone the equivalent of a tax refund, no questions asked. Then, to pay for that, the tax rates at the higher income brackets go up. Very low or zero income: the government pays you a basic income. Low income: they still pay you, and you have to pay a negligible amount of tax on your extra income from work. Crucially, your benefits don’t disappear instantly if you get a job, unlike with many welfare programs now. Mid-low income: you pay the same in taxes as the basic income, for a net tax rate of zero. Higher incomes: your net tax after UBI increases proportionately to your income from work, steeper than before UBI.
      - dantheman 3y ago
- JellyBeanThief 3y ago
  > Academics have been making these doomsday "automation will cause labor surplus" predictions since forever. When exactly can we expect them to materialize? Make a list of jobs you think are very little benefit, no benefit, or detriment to society. Whatever value function you want. Maybe you hate advertisers, maybe you like advertisers. Reality television. Loan sharks. Health insurance. Lawyers. Fast food. Facebook. Everybody's got 'em, even if they don't agree. Call these workers (whoever you decide they are) the fakeloaders. They're doing things that don't need to be done, but which the fakeloaders need to do in order to have money in order to buy things. How big is the fake load? Sum the hours worked by fakeloaders, and the money they draw from the rest of the economy. Write it all off as wasted. That time could have been spent by those workers doing something more beneficial, or it could have been distributed over everyone to just rest and live in. That money expressed demand for important things like food, housing, or medicine but was earned by people who ultimately didn't do any work that actually produced those things or anything else that really improved life. Now, enter some new technology that saves labor and costs people their jobs. Some number of those people may move on to other beneficial things. But some number are going to become fakeloaders. Maybe the fake load they do is easily-trained, low-paying work. Maybe it's credential- or network-demanding, high-paying work. The key questions are: 1) Is the fake load growing and, if it is, 2) is that growth accelerating or jerking (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerk_(physics) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerk_(physics)) too fast?
  - hyperadvanced 3y ago
    I think this is a good, Graeber-tinged take on the labor supply and economics of automation. You can make an argument not that there’s a “real” labor shortage, merely a misallocation of labor that has undesirable consequences for consumers. Classically, the purpose of government funds in cases like these (market incentives mismatches) is to reduce risk or spur investment in sectors where capital would not otherwise be allocated. I personally find it absurd that UBI would even be on the table when you could (presumably) use the same funds to solve market issues like these unless you think (and you’d be wrong) that the only issues with the housing or medical market are strictly related to affordability and that they could be solved by giving consumers money. I think UBI could work to spur consumption, but most Western economies aren’t suffering from a shortage there. One dynamic that UBI could help support is keeping the labor supply tight as automation eliminates jobs. Srineck (and others) identify this imbalance of power as crucial for developing a post-capitalist economy: if Capital’s anti-human impulses are allowed to run amok unmitigated, we will see more of the same when it comes to human needs being unmet while the (inhuman) lines on the graph go up.

bequanna 3y ago

> I think the bigger issue is that there is a common, albeit misguided notion that UBI would create inflationary pressure. Well, because it is perfectly intuitive to think it will cause inflation: The Fed printing money to fund Government deficit spending absolutely increases inflation. UBI is additional Government spending. Additionally, reducing the supply of labor increases the cost of labor, which causes inflation. I think the onus is the proponents of UBI to somehow prove that if this is done at scale it will NOT cause inflation. > On the plus side, the advancement of AI, and the threat of widespread job loss creates a positive talking point that can possibly help counteract that. Academics have been making these doomsday "automation will cause labor surplus" predictions since forever. When exactly can we expect them to materialize? I'd love some cheaper labor so I can build an affordable home.

CrackerNews 3y ago
I think if you follow where the money goes, that will be whether UBI causes inflation or not. In the best case, it results in a virtuous cycle where growth is created and sustained. In the worst case, it further inflates the value of low supply goods. This will most likely be up to market conditions along with business models/strategies and productive capabilities of various industries and marketplaces and how they will weigh out. In the example of housing however, I don't think UBI will help because the business model is dependent on inflating prices of homes as investment vehicles. The price must go up one way or another. What actually bring home prices down would be something like a market crash where investment expectations are muted. Cheaper labor however comes from offshore countries that have a lower standard of living. If average wages go up, then domestic workers will expect that as a baseline. A business can pay above the average for above average workers, and vice versa. The expectation of hiring cheaper immigrant labor is getting the same level of expertise for cheaper. This does not always go to plan, which is why there is still some demand for domestic workers and their expertise. Automation may have a similar effect but without the same virtuous cycle to offshore countries as before. (Not to mention that the difference between revenue and cheaper labor cost is incentivized to be kept as business profits, which doesn't mean that prices go down since demand and supply now expects higher prices as the market baseline.)
- bequanna 3y ago
  > Cheaper labor however comes from offshore countries that have a lower standard of living. Please explain why wages went up significantly for low income workers during the pandemic. The answer (of course) is that we artificially decreased the pool of available workers by paying people to stay home for an extended period—-exactly what UBI would like to do. The price of labor is simple supply and demand. If we pay the lower skilled people the same amount they would make from waiting tables or swinging a hammer, why would anyone want to do that work? I don’t get it. Why do people make these complicated, purely academic arguments in support of UBI? It’s obviously going to increase taxes and increase inflation. It’s obviously bad for the people who choose to actually work, save and pay taxes.
  - TalEs 3y ago
    I think you are unsure of how UBI works. It is not paying people to stay at home, it is just a modification of tax brackets, such that people below a certain level pay negative taxes, aka receive money to live and survive. Unlike now, where everyone has to pay taxes, even the poor. UBI does not need an increase in taxes, just a proper tiering of it, such that the ultra rich pay more to support society better. By having people who pay negative taxes, they are not burdened with living paycheck to paycheck and can focus on improving their lives. If you are working, saving and paying your proportionate taxes, UBI should not affect you in any way. It's just a fix for rampant capitalism, where the rich are supposedly working millions of times harder than their exploited working class.
    - bequanna 3y ago
      > receive money to live and survive I’m not sure you know how generous the current welfare system is. Low income people can already receive assistance for: housing, food, internet, phones, completely free medical care and straight up cash. Not to mention that we have made it incredibly easy to claim disability for anyone who essentially doesn’t want to work. …but in addition to that, you’re telling me I should be giving more of my money to them? I have sympathy but I also have a limit. Also, where are these “literally starving” people in the US? Other than mentally ill who have difficulty taking advantage of the many services available, I have yet to encounter them.
jiggawatts 3y ago
Who said anything about “printing” money!? In all serious contexts — not kids arguing on Reddit — the concept of UBI is just an adjustment of tax brackets such that people below a certain threshold pay negative tax. This is offset by higher taxes in the super rich. It’s basically saying that Bezos does not work one million times harder than the staff working in his warehouses. Staff that are literally starving in many cases.
- drekipus 3y ago
  > just an adjustment of tax brackets such that people below a certain threshold pay negative tax This makes sense, and I am totally for this, as a current "total naysayer" against UBI. Infact, I wish that "negative tax" was the flag bearing. I am totally 100% for that idea. I am against the notion of UBI because it is too all encompassing and I am not confident that a singular system can handle all of the variables. In my view (and from my discussions) it's framed as: - "everyone gets an extra $X amount a week." - "even the rich people so why are you complaining." - "studies have shown that worker engagement has actually risen or remained steady, hasn't dropped at all" - " it was shown that it made everyone way happier and productive" But where does the money come from? "Small trials in Finland shows that they didn't need to get extra money it just happened and it's easy as that so why are you against it????"
  - jiggawatts 3y ago
    The most common UBI variant is to simply give everyone the equivalent of a tax refund, no questions asked. Then, to pay for that, the tax rates at the higher income brackets go up. Very low or zero income: the government pays you a basic income. Low income: they still pay you, and you have to pay a negligible amount of tax on your extra income from work. Crucially, your benefits don’t disappear instantly if you get a job, unlike with many welfare programs now. Mid-low income: you pay the same in taxes as the basic income, for a net tax rate of zero. Higher incomes: your net tax after UBI increases proportionately to your income from work, steeper than before UBI.
    - dantheman 3y ago
JellyBeanThief 3y ago
> Academics have been making these doomsday "automation will cause labor surplus" predictions since forever. When exactly can we expect them to materialize? Make a list of jobs you think are very little benefit, no benefit, or detriment to society. Whatever value function you want. Maybe you hate advertisers, maybe you like advertisers. Reality television. Loan sharks. Health insurance. Lawyers. Fast food. Facebook. Everybody's got 'em, even if they don't agree. Call these workers (whoever you decide they are) the fakeloaders. They're doing things that don't need to be done, but which the fakeloaders need to do in order to have money in order to buy things. How big is the fake load? Sum the hours worked by fakeloaders, and the money they draw from the rest of the economy. Write it all off as wasted. That time could have been spent by those workers doing something more beneficial, or it could have been distributed over everyone to just rest and live in. That money expressed demand for important things like food, housing, or medicine but was earned by people who ultimately didn't do any work that actually produced those things or anything else that really improved life. Now, enter some new technology that saves labor and costs people their jobs. Some number of those people may move on to other beneficial things. But some number are going to become fakeloaders. Maybe the fake load they do is easily-trained, low-paying work. Maybe it's credential- or network-demanding, high-paying work. The key questions are: 1) Is the fake load growing and, if it is, 2) is that growth accelerating or jerking (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerk_(physics) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerk_(physics)) too fast?
- hyperadvanced 3y ago
  I think this is a good, Graeber-tinged take on the labor supply and economics of automation. You can make an argument not that there’s a “real” labor shortage, merely a misallocation of labor that has undesirable consequences for consumers. Classically, the purpose of government funds in cases like these (market incentives mismatches) is to reduce risk or spur investment in sectors where capital would not otherwise be allocated. I personally find it absurd that UBI would even be on the table when you could (presumably) use the same funds to solve market issues like these unless you think (and you’d be wrong) that the only issues with the housing or medical market are strictly related to affordability and that they could be solved by giving consumers money. I think UBI could work to spur consumption, but most Western economies aren’t suffering from a shortage there. One dynamic that UBI could help support is keeping the labor supply tight as automation eliminates jobs. Srineck (and others) identify this imbalance of power as crucial for developing a post-capitalist economy: if Capital’s anti-human impulses are allowed to run amok unmitigated, we will see more of the same when it comes to human needs being unmet while the (inhuman) lines on the graph go up.