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Dunning-Kruger has been thoroughly debunked. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/how-do-you-know/202012/dunning-kruger-isnt-real https://www.psychologytod

Dunning-Kruger has been thoroughly debunked. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/how-do-you-know/202012/dunning-kruger-isnt-real https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/how-do-you-know/2020... https://scitechdaily.com/math-professor-debunks-the-dunning-kruger-effect/ https://scitechdaily.com/math-professor-debunks-the-dunning-...

2024throwaway 3y ago
> The majority of people can actually gauge their competence and knowledge accurately. I know plenty of C-suite folks who must be in the minority then.
- psadri 3y ago
  It is a skill to genuinely or convincingly look past your own lack of competence.
- westhanover 3y ago
  Have you considered that you might not be able to gauge peoples competence and knowledge accurately? Statistically, if you are observing so manly outliers that is likely to be the case. Hope this helps!
  - 2024throwaway 3y ago
    Ahhh this must be it. The CEO babbling about how AI "works" must be knowledgeable and competent, and I, an engineer actually working on our AI product, am the idiot. Thanks for the help!
- duxup 3y ago
  I wonder if that's a case where folks in leadership feel like their job is to show confidence, provide direction, and they still maybe know they don't know enough (I mean who does...) and they still make the call (right or wrong). Perhaps more of a poor leadership thing we observe.
- somenameforme 3y ago
  I think that's more about leadership. For whatever reason "we" seem geared to follow people who pretend to know their way forward even when they're completely lost, perhaps even more lost than average. Like Teddy Roosevelt said - 'Speak loudly, aggressively flail about, and you'll go far.' Or something like that.
rimeice 3y ago
I think a better model is unconscious incompetence > conscious incompetence > conscious competence > unconscious competence
namuol 3y ago
Okay, but that doesn’t mean overconfidence isn’t real.
stonedge 3y ago
I don’t want to suggest this person themselves is wrong, but it seems that this is just part of the back and forth among scientists and not in and of itself the correct answer. Meta: what if this researcher themselves is exhibiting Dunning-Kruger and is overconfident.
bluish29 3y ago
In HN, to create a new line, you will need to leave two lines in the editor instead of one. And thanks for the links
nyrikki 3y ago
Common usage doesn't typically meet that specific definition: “If you are really, really stupid, then it’s impossible for you to know you are really, really stupid.” Typically it is used to describe when people who don't have complete knowledge about the nuances of a problem or have opinions based on bad information or bad assumptions confidently or aggressively state positions and that confidence is confused with competency. LLMs are a good example of the colloquial use. They are confident, superficially competent but almost always wrong in specific domains. It is a problem when people underestimate their blind spots. Building culture that allows all coworkers to safely raise consent and learning to depersonalize feedback helps with that. It may not have as popular of a label, but it is well documented in fields like human factors.

2024throwaway 3y ago

> The majority of people can actually gauge their competence and knowledge accurately. I know plenty of C-suite folks who must be in the minority then.

psadri 3y ago
It is a skill to genuinely or convincingly look past your own lack of competence.
westhanover 3y ago
Have you considered that you might not be able to gauge peoples competence and knowledge accurately? Statistically, if you are observing so manly outliers that is likely to be the case. Hope this helps!
- 2024throwaway 3y ago
  Ahhh this must be it. The CEO babbling about how AI "works" must be knowledgeable and competent, and I, an engineer actually working on our AI product, am the idiot. Thanks for the help!
duxup 3y ago
I wonder if that's a case where folks in leadership feel like their job is to show confidence, provide direction, and they still maybe know they don't know enough (I mean who does...) and they still make the call (right or wrong). Perhaps more of a poor leadership thing we observe.
somenameforme 3y ago
I think that's more about leadership. For whatever reason "we" seem geared to follow people who pretend to know their way forward even when they're completely lost, perhaps even more lost than average. Like Teddy Roosevelt said - 'Speak loudly, aggressively flail about, and you'll go far.' Or something like that.

rimeice 3y ago

I think a better model is unconscious incompetence > conscious incompetence > conscious competence > unconscious competence

namuol 3y ago

Okay, but that doesn’t mean overconfidence isn’t real.

stonedge 3y ago

I don’t want to suggest this person themselves is wrong, but it seems that this is just part of the back and forth among scientists and not in and of itself the correct answer. Meta: what if this researcher themselves is exhibiting Dunning-Kruger and is overconfident.

bluish29 3y ago

In HN, to create a new line, you will need to leave two lines in the editor instead of one. And thanks for the links

nyrikki 3y ago

Common usage doesn't typically meet that specific definition: “If you are really, really stupid, then it’s impossible for you to know you are really, really stupid.” Typically it is used to describe when people who don't have complete knowledge about the nuances of a problem or have opinions based on bad information or bad assumptions confidently or aggressively state positions and that confidence is confused with competency. LLMs are a good example of the colloquial use. They are confident, superficially competent but almost always wrong in specific domains. It is a problem when people underestimate their blind spots. Building culture that allows all coworkers to safely raise consent and learning to depersonalize feedback helps with that. It may not have as popular of a label, but it is well documented in fields like human factors.