Except there's studies showing increasing turnover in academics and exiting being unrelated to research quality metrics. There's also research showing pretty c

Except there's studies showing increasing turnover in academics and exiting being unrelated to research quality metrics. There's also research showing pretty clear seniority effects on grant receipt. You're raising a good point but my sense is it doesn't fit the data well. There's also a really basic question of whether grants per se should matter at all in things like tenure decisions. You could make an argument that they're a means to an end, and using them for hiring decisions is sort of a tail wagging the dog phenomenon.