5 ms·

The Deep and Enduring History of Universal Basic Income

26 points by jethronethro 3y ago

frank_bb 3y ago
[dead]
dwallin 3y ago
I think the article gets it wrong when it says nationalism is the biggest issue the UBI movement currently faces. Our current waves of nationalism have populist roots, and therefore is not inherently incompatible with UBI policies. However, as stated in the article, the current UBI movement is generally left-of-center; and there is a lot of reactionary opposition (atleast in the USA) to anything that comes from the other side. I think the bigger issue is that there is a common, albeit misguided notion that UBI would create inflationary pressure. This fear was made worse by the current inflationary environment. Covid relief was made the boogeyman for inflation out of political expediency. On the plus side, the advancement of AI, and the threat of widespread job loss creates a positive talking point that can possibly help counteract that.
- bequanna 3y ago
  > I think the bigger issue is that there is a common, albeit misguided notion that UBI would create inflationary pressure. Well, because it is perfectly intuitive to think it will cause inflation: The Fed printing money to fund Government deficit spending absolutely increases inflation. UBI is additional Government spending. Additionally, reducing the supply of labor increases the cost of labor, which causes inflation. I think the onus is the proponents of UBI to somehow prove that if this is done at scale it will NOT cause inflation. > On the plus side, the advancement of AI, and the threat of widespread job loss creates a positive talking point that can possibly help counteract that. Academics have been making these doomsday "automation will cause labor surplus" predictions since forever. When exactly can we expect them to materialize? I'd love some cheaper labor so I can build an affordable home.
  - CrackerNews 3y ago
    I think if you follow where the money goes, that will be whether UBI causes inflation or not. In the best case, it results in a virtuous cycle where growth is created and sustained. In the worst case, it further inflates the value of low supply goods. This will most likely be up to market conditions along with business models/strategies and productive capabilities of various industries and marketplaces and how they will weigh out. In the example of housing however, I don't think UBI will help because the business model is dependent on inflating prices of homes as investment vehicles. The price must go up one way or another. What actually bring home prices down would be something like a market crash where investment expectations are muted. Cheaper labor however comes from offshore countries that have a lower standard of living. If average wages go up, then domestic workers will expect that as a baseline. A business can pay above the average for above average workers, and vice versa. The expectation of hiring cheaper immigrant labor is getting the same level of expertise for cheaper. This does not always go to plan, which is why there is still some demand for domestic workers and their expertise. Automation may have a similar effect but without the same virtuous cycle to offshore countries as before. (Not to mention that the difference between revenue and cheaper labor cost is incentivized to be kept as business profits, which doesn't mean that prices go down since demand and supply now expects higher prices as the market baseline.)
    - bequanna 3y ago
      > Cheaper labor however comes from offshore countries that have a lower standard of living. Please explain why wages went up significantly for low income workers during the pandemic. The answer (of course) is that we artificially decreased the pool of available workers by paying people to stay home for an extended period—-exactly what UBI would like to do. The price of labor is simple supply and demand. If we pay the lower skilled people the same amount they would make from waiting tables or swinging a hammer, why would anyone want to do that work? I don’t get it. Why do people make these complicated, purely academic arguments in support of UBI? It’s obviously going to increase taxes and increase inflation. It’s obviously bad for the people who choose to actually work, save and pay taxes.
      - 3y ago
MichaelRo 3y ago
>> small-scale hunter-gatherer or agrarian communities The key is "small-scale". On the other hand humans are closing 10 billion, sorry but I don't see how such a number of people can live on the dole.
NemoNobody 3y ago
Income doesn't have to start at zero. What an excellent way of phrasing it.
readyman 3y ago
UBI is an obvious scam. It's always better to decrease labor time evenly across all workers while paying the same or higher wages.
- wenebego 3y ago
  Imagine the case if labor time is reduced to 0, because its all been automated away. Thats UBI
  - readyman 3y ago
    Both impossible and stupid.
    - wenebego 3y ago
      Simultaneously "always better" and "impossible and stupid" lol
  - harvey9 3y ago
    I see it as 'I can try this business idea, secure in the knowledge that if it fails I won't go hungry'. Even in the post scarcity Federation in Star Trek people want to do work that is both fulfilling and valuable.
    - ImJamal 3y ago
      Trying to prove something will happen with a SciFi show isn't exactly the best proof. Look at Wall-E for a counter example to Star Trek.
- piloto_ciego 3y ago
  We have UBI here in Alaska, it’s not enough to live off of, but yah, it’s not a scam at all. UBI works - see the PFD.

26 points by jethronethro 3y ago

[dead]

I think the article gets it wrong when it says nationalism is the biggest issue the UBI movement currently faces. Our current waves of nationalism have populist roots, and therefore is not inherently incompatible with UBI policies. However, as stated in the article, the current UBI movement is generally left-of-center; and there is a lot of reactionary opposition (atleast in the USA) to anything that comes from the other side. I think the bigger issue is that there is a common, albeit misguided notion that UBI would create inflationary pressure. This fear was made worse by the current inflationary environment. Covid relief was made the boogeyman for inflation out of political expediency. On the plus side, the advancement of AI, and the threat of widespread job loss creates a positive talking point that can possibly help counteract that.

bequanna 3y ago
> I think the bigger issue is that there is a common, albeit misguided notion that UBI would create inflationary pressure. Well, because it is perfectly intuitive to think it will cause inflation: The Fed printing money to fund Government deficit spending absolutely increases inflation. UBI is additional Government spending. Additionally, reducing the supply of labor increases the cost of labor, which causes inflation. I think the onus is the proponents of UBI to somehow prove that if this is done at scale it will NOT cause inflation. > On the plus side, the advancement of AI, and the threat of widespread job loss creates a positive talking point that can possibly help counteract that. Academics have been making these doomsday "automation will cause labor surplus" predictions since forever. When exactly can we expect them to materialize? I'd love some cheaper labor so I can build an affordable home.
- CrackerNews 3y ago
  I think if you follow where the money goes, that will be whether UBI causes inflation or not. In the best case, it results in a virtuous cycle where growth is created and sustained. In the worst case, it further inflates the value of low supply goods. This will most likely be up to market conditions along with business models/strategies and productive capabilities of various industries and marketplaces and how they will weigh out. In the example of housing however, I don't think UBI will help because the business model is dependent on inflating prices of homes as investment vehicles. The price must go up one way or another. What actually bring home prices down would be something like a market crash where investment expectations are muted. Cheaper labor however comes from offshore countries that have a lower standard of living. If average wages go up, then domestic workers will expect that as a baseline. A business can pay above the average for above average workers, and vice versa. The expectation of hiring cheaper immigrant labor is getting the same level of expertise for cheaper. This does not always go to plan, which is why there is still some demand for domestic workers and their expertise. Automation may have a similar effect but without the same virtuous cycle to offshore countries as before. (Not to mention that the difference between revenue and cheaper labor cost is incentivized to be kept as business profits, which doesn't mean that prices go down since demand and supply now expects higher prices as the market baseline.)
  - bequanna 3y ago
    > Cheaper labor however comes from offshore countries that have a lower standard of living. Please explain why wages went up significantly for low income workers during the pandemic. The answer (of course) is that we artificially decreased the pool of available workers by paying people to stay home for an extended period—-exactly what UBI would like to do. The price of labor is simple supply and demand. If we pay the lower skilled people the same amount they would make from waiting tables or swinging a hammer, why would anyone want to do that work? I don’t get it. Why do people make these complicated, purely academic arguments in support of UBI? It’s obviously going to increase taxes and increase inflation. It’s obviously bad for the people who choose to actually work, save and pay taxes.
    - 3y ago

MichaelRo 3y ago

>> small-scale hunter-gatherer or agrarian communities The key is "small-scale". On the other hand humans are closing 10 billion, sorry but I don't see how such a number of people can live on the dole.

NemoNobody 3y ago

Income doesn't have to start at zero. What an excellent way of phrasing it.

readyman 3y ago

UBI is an obvious scam. It's always better to decrease labor time evenly across all workers while paying the same or higher wages.

wenebego 3y ago
Imagine the case if labor time is reduced to 0, because its all been automated away. Thats UBI
- readyman 3y ago
  Both impossible and stupid.
  - wenebego 3y ago
    Simultaneously "always better" and "impossible and stupid" lol
- harvey9 3y ago
  I see it as 'I can try this business idea, secure in the knowledge that if it fails I won't go hungry'. Even in the post scarcity Federation in Star Trek people want to do work that is both fulfilling and valuable.
  - ImJamal 3y ago
    Trying to prove something will happen with a SciFi show isn't exactly the best proof. Look at Wall-E for a counter example to Star Trek.
piloto_ciego 3y ago
We have UBI here in Alaska, it’s not enough to live off of, but yah, it’s not a scam at all. UBI works - see the PFD.