3 ms·

OTOH, average citizen preference still shapes the blowback, and (many) politicians still care about these things.

kelseyfrog 3y ago
There's no significant correlation between average citizen preferences and policy. If you want to reject the null hypothesis, you'll need evidence more than the statement "(many) politicians still care about these things." The world isn't fair.
- falcolas 3y ago
  Democrats are polling ahead of Republicans in most states which have enacted abortion bans. They also won a majority of congress seats which were up in 2022. They're doing so because 80% of all Americans support abortion as health care. There's also the successful citizen-lead effort to put abortion as a right on the Ohio constitution. This despite a majority opposition from the state legislature. The consequences are delayed, but they are there.
  - leereeves 3y ago
    Where are you getting that from? > They also won a majority of congress seats which were up in 2022 No, Republicans won 20 Senate seats and 222 House seats in 2022, Democrats won 15 and 213. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elec... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_elect... > Democrats are polling ahead of Republicans in most states which have enacted abortion bans That seems unlikely, given that Republicans are winning the nationwide general Congressional election polls and would certainly be doing better in red states than blue states. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/
    - falcolas 3y ago
      Damn. Screwed that 2022 one up. My bad.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > you'll need evidence more than the statement "(many) politicians still care about these things." I can personally attest to language that made it into bills at the state and federal level on the back of a call with an overworked staffer. I have also watched bills die because nobody bothered calling in support, but a few did in opposition. You’re right that the process of getting a bill initiated is frought. But the country’s needs are diverse, and in most electeds’ backyards a given issue isn’t a battleground. So they’ll swing whichever way is convenient and move on. Where this doesn’t work is for big-ticket issues; you aren’t going to flip your elected’s position on abortion with a call. Your study uses survey data from 1981 to 2002; the fact that an issue is being broadly surveyed biases the result. (We have no survey on this bill as yet.)
mistermann 3y ago
If this was 0.1% true at ground level, your description of it would remain correct, though it would be misinformative (a major sin a year or two ago according to what I read in the news).

There's no significant correlation between average citizen preferences and policy. If you want to reject the null hypothesis, you'll need evidence more than the statement "(many) politicians still care about these things." The world isn't fair.

falcolas 3y ago
Democrats are polling ahead of Republicans in most states which have enacted abortion bans. They also won a majority of congress seats which were up in 2022. They're doing so because 80% of all Americans support abortion as health care. There's also the successful citizen-lead effort to put abortion as a right on the Ohio constitution. This despite a majority opposition from the state legislature. The consequences are delayed, but they are there.
- leereeves 3y ago
  Where are you getting that from? > They also won a majority of congress seats which were up in 2022 No, Republicans won 20 Senate seats and 222 House seats in 2022, Democrats won 15 and 213. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elec... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_elect... > Democrats are polling ahead of Republicans in most states which have enacted abortion bans That seems unlikely, given that Republicans are winning the nationwide general Congressional election polls and would certainly be doing better in red states than blue states. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/
  - falcolas 3y ago
    Damn. Screwed that 2022 one up. My bad.
JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> you'll need evidence more than the statement "(many) politicians still care about these things." I can personally attest to language that made it into bills at the state and federal level on the back of a call with an overworked staffer. I have also watched bills die because nobody bothered calling in support, but a few did in opposition. You’re right that the process of getting a bill initiated is frought. But the country’s needs are diverse, and in most electeds’ backyards a given issue isn’t a battleground. So they’ll swing whichever way is convenient and move on. Where this doesn’t work is for big-ticket issues; you aren’t going to flip your elected’s position on abortion with a call. Your study uses survey data from 1981 to 2002; the fact that an issue is being broadly surveyed biases the result. (We have no survey on this bill as yet.)

mistermann 3y ago

If this was 0.1% true at ground level, your description of it would remain correct, though it would be misinformative (a major sin a year or two ago according to what I read in the news).