4 ms·

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2_nm_process https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2_nm_process I'm fascinated by the "Beyond 2nm" section, but don't really understand m

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2_nm_process https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2_nm_process I'm fascinated by the "Beyond 2nm" section, but don't really understand much of the terminology. If there are any industry experts reading, what sort of chip developments do you think will happen by 2030?

morphle 3y ago
By 2030 we will have progressed to a few atoms per transistor in bulk CMOS, to wafer scale integration [3] and probably replaced most metal wires with free space optics [2]. We will see the first mass-manufactured SFQ [1] and RSFQ [4] superconducting Josephson junctions. Maybe we will see the first carbon nanotubes and superconducting circuits [5]. [1] https://youtu.be/LUFp6sjKbkE?t=21701 https://youtu.be/LUFp6sjKbkE?t=21701 [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hWWyuesmhs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hWWyuesmhs [3] https://vimeo.com/731037615 https://vimeo.com/731037615 [4] Rapid single flux quantum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_single_flux_quantum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_single_flux_quantum [5] https://phys.org/news/2008-03-future-carbon-nanotubes-superconductors.html https://phys.org/news/2008-03-future-carbon-nanotubes-superc...
- wtallis 3y ago
  Do you expect any of those to be in mass production six years from now?
  - morphle 3y ago
    That is literally the trillion dollar question. Will a Japanese or European company overtake ASML [1,2] in making bulk CMOS smaller? [1] https://www.asml.com/-/media/asml/files/investors/investor-days/2022/2_asml-investor-day-2022_demand-and-capacity---peter-wennink.pdf https://www.asml.com/-/media/asml/files/investors/investor-d... [2] https://www.asml.com/-/media/asml/files/investors/investor-days/2021/asml-investor-day-2021-technology-strategy---martin-van-den-brink.pdf https://www.asml.com/-/media/asml/files/investors/investor-d...

morphle 3y ago

By 2030 we will have progressed to a few atoms per transistor in bulk CMOS, to wafer scale integration [3] and probably replaced most metal wires with free space optics [2]. We will see the first mass-manufactured SFQ [1] and RSFQ [4] superconducting Josephson junctions. Maybe we will see the first carbon nanotubes and superconducting circuits [5]. [1] https://youtu.be/LUFp6sjKbkE?t=21701 https://youtu.be/LUFp6sjKbkE?t=21701 [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hWWyuesmhs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hWWyuesmhs [3] https://vimeo.com/731037615 https://vimeo.com/731037615 [4] Rapid single flux quantum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_single_flux_quantum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_single_flux_quantum [5] https://phys.org/news/2008-03-future-carbon-nanotubes-superconductors.html https://phys.org/news/2008-03-future-carbon-nanotubes-superc...

wtallis 3y ago
Do you expect any of those to be in mass production six years from now?
- morphle 3y ago
  That is literally the trillion dollar question. Will a Japanese or European company overtake ASML [1,2] in making bulk CMOS smaller? [1] https://www.asml.com/-/media/asml/files/investors/investor-days/2022/2_asml-investor-day-2022_demand-and-capacity---peter-wennink.pdf https://www.asml.com/-/media/asml/files/investors/investor-d... [2] https://www.asml.com/-/media/asml/files/investors/investor-days/2021/asml-investor-day-2021-technology-strategy---martin-van-den-brink.pdf https://www.asml.com/-/media/asml/files/investors/investor-d...