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I don't know why you keep focusing on zero-sum here. My claim is that a large component of mountain-town value increases is driven by second home, investor and

I don't know why you keep focusing on zero-sum here. My claim is that a large component of mountain-town value increases is driven by second home, investor and semi-retirement of wealthy people driven by cheap credit and, now, by the asset gains of that cheap credit. There has been an inflationary expansion, the early receivers of that inflation (myself included) then can put that money into mountain towns. That doesn't mean that there aren't other factors, just that I believe it to be the major one. There are others, such as people fleeing chaos in the large western cities, remote work, etc. And, as you say, we can expect some increase in the land value of these places over time as well. If the market ever crashes and mountain west towns stay relatively expensive, I will be shown to be wrong. We'll see.

Manuel_D 3y ago
> My claim is that a large component of mountain-town value increases is driven by second home, investor and semi-retirement of wealthy people driven by cheap credit and, now, by the asset gains of that cheap credit. Then why is it still a problem when mortgage rates are so high? This is also explicitly contradicted by the article: many of the offers are all cash. Credit is not a factor there.
- recursivedoubts 3y ago
  That cash is coming from sales of inflated assets that have grown during The Everything Bubble. The Everything Bubble grew during a decade of negative real rates and, thus far, has not popped during rate normalization (although you can argue that rates are still very low or negative in real terms, depending on your measure of inflation.) If The Everything Bubble eventually deflates (maybe it's different this time) and mountain towns remain expensive then I will be proven wrong. And I have to admit, the longer interest rates stay high and asset prices do not adjust down the less certain I am of my thesis. We will see.

Manuel_D 3y ago

> My claim is that a large component of mountain-town value increases is driven by second home, investor and semi-retirement of wealthy people driven by cheap credit and, now, by the asset gains of that cheap credit. Then why is it still a problem when mortgage rates are so high? This is also explicitly contradicted by the article: many of the offers are all cash. Credit is not a factor there.

recursivedoubts 3y ago
That cash is coming from sales of inflated assets that have grown during The Everything Bubble. The Everything Bubble grew during a decade of negative real rates and, thus far, has not popped during rate normalization (although you can argue that rates are still very low or negative in real terms, depending on your measure of inflation.) If The Everything Bubble eventually deflates (maybe it's different this time) and mountain towns remain expensive then I will be proven wrong. And I have to admit, the longer interest rates stay high and asset prices do not adjust down the less certain I am of my thesis. We will see.