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This is fine until "We will make steady progress", that's not guaranteed, in fact there's already a phrase for this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter http
by kingkongjaffa 3y ago
This is fine until "We will make steady progress", that's not guaranteed, in fact there's already a phrase for this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter
With space travel, there is a very well established physics to model and predict how we might do these things, you need to do some stuff like build rockets, have them escape earth's gravity, build things in space.
Everything is a known known or a known unknown but we have the physics to model everything involved with space travel.
This is an entirely different class of problem to "creating AGI", since there is basically a huge unknown unknown ocean to cross. So far everything we have done in AI is a statistical proxy for real thought processes, and there's one assumption that says lets make more and more of these kinds of AI techniques with "bigger" systems and we might approach something like AGI. But it isn't certain.
so far with the GPT's we've really only succeeded in synthesizing human written text corpus into a statistical prediction engine, which can synthesise useful text, but does not have any semblance of 'thought'.
- JoeAltmaier 3y agoThat changes every day. The evidence is all in favor of 'steady progress'.