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China is physically the same size as the U.S. They absolutely want energy independence, and will probably achieve it for the majority of use within 10 years. I

by gibolt 3y ago

China is physically the same size as the U.S. They absolutely want energy independence, and will probably achieve it for the majority of use within 10 years. ICE car sales requirements are going up drastically this year, meaning most new sales could be EV within 5 years, and they could sell EVs at such scale after that that a ban on gas cars in cities would convert the rest of the fleet in another 5-10 years. Once you have cheap, abundant energy all the industrial segments are highly motivated to switch.

tw1984 3y ago
> They absolutely want energy independence, and will probably achieve it for the majority of use within 10 years. No, China will not want that. Being the largest oil importer from the highly unstable middle east provides an unique opportunity to get involved in the regional affairs. Stop buying middle east oil is like giving up the support from a huge chunk of developing countries. Let's call it suicidal.
- maxglute 3y ago
  Being best customer doesn't always come with proportional perks. US oil/lng imports from MENA down to ~1/3 of peak. IIRC below PRC current imports which exceed record US highs. Meanwhile US is now net fossil exporter and direct competitor. Same with PRC EV/green exports will be antagonistic to medium/long MENA fossil/lng exporters interests. Being current/historic best customer, how much energy does PRC have to import to get MENA to swap US military bases with PRC ones? And for how long? My guess is too much and for too long. PRC enduring interests in MENA is for energy security anyway, once that's gone, their essential interests will dissapate, much like it has with US trying to move from CENTCOM to Indopac post shale/lng independance. But realistically, PRC will be dependant on imported fossil for industrial inputs for a while, the important goal is to wean off strategic sectors like transportation 7/14millionbarrels and use domestic oil of 4mb for mainly industry, with 3-4mb gap filled by imports - i.e. energy security/independance goals is changing energy mix to 7mb per day, 4mb domestic, 3-4mb imports vs current 10mb imports out of 14mb consumption. That gap of 4m is still large enough to influence select exporters strategically if targetted instead of current 10m distributed imports. But medium/long term that's a bribe for RU cooperation. Like if PRC really wanted to gain influence with MENA, they'd start a TW war and escalate to hitting US oil and lng plants and disrupt US exports to put MENA fossil export back on top. Many would also call that suicidal. Long term PRC best to learn from US and avoid MENA drama and sell EVs / electric / renewable infra to rest of world.

by gibolt 3y ago

tw1984 3y ago

> They absolutely want energy independence, and will probably achieve it for the majority of use within 10 years. No, China will not want that. Being the largest oil importer from the highly unstable middle east provides an unique opportunity to get involved in the regional affairs. Stop buying middle east oil is like giving up the support from a huge chunk of developing countries. Let's call it suicidal.

maxglute 3y ago
Being best customer doesn't always come with proportional perks. US oil/lng imports from MENA down to ~1/3 of peak. IIRC below PRC current imports which exceed record US highs. Meanwhile US is now net fossil exporter and direct competitor. Same with PRC EV/green exports will be antagonistic to medium/long MENA fossil/lng exporters interests. Being current/historic best customer, how much energy does PRC have to import to get MENA to swap US military bases with PRC ones? And for how long? My guess is too much and for too long. PRC enduring interests in MENA is for energy security anyway, once that's gone, their essential interests will dissapate, much like it has with US trying to move from CENTCOM to Indopac post shale/lng independance. But realistically, PRC will be dependant on imported fossil for industrial inputs for a while, the important goal is to wean off strategic sectors like transportation 7/14millionbarrels and use domestic oil of 4mb for mainly industry, with 3-4mb gap filled by imports - i.e. energy security/independance goals is changing energy mix to 7mb per day, 4mb domestic, 3-4mb imports vs current 10mb imports out of 14mb consumption. That gap of 4m is still large enough to influence select exporters strategically if targetted instead of current 10m distributed imports. But medium/long term that's a bribe for RU cooperation. Like if PRC really wanted to gain influence with MENA, they'd start a TW war and escalate to hitting US oil and lng plants and disrupt US exports to put MENA fossil export back on top. Many would also call that suicidal. Long term PRC best to learn from US and avoid MENA drama and sell EVs / electric / renewable infra to rest of world.