The problem isn't that they don't place importance in them. It's that there is nothing weeding out failure. Financial incentives in principle (although definite

The problem isn't that they don't place importance in them. It's that there is nothing weeding out failure. Financial incentives in principle (although definitely not very well in practice lol) punish failure in a resilient way: you actually can't keep betting if you can't win. Where... I don't think that's true for prediction markets? Anyway, I dunno. I also don't believe that people predict well even with incentives, and think the whole thing is a farce, so I'm just a pretty dogged skeptic.