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While I agree great engineers will continue to grow in scarcity and demand higher and higher compensation, the shift to armies of prompt specialists is not just

by hirako2000 3y ago

While I agree great engineers will continue to grow in scarcity and demand higher and higher compensation, the shift to armies of prompt specialists is not just an overstatement. It's wrong. Why? The same was said again and again again about the offshoring programmers. Reality? Here we are with countless unfilled jobs hiring for senior enginners in NYC for over 200k per year. The gap, at least cultural, between a coder in Bengalore and San Francisco is significant. Imagine compared to an outsourced "consultant" behind a prompt . Plus, coding is about 10% of the work. If that. What matters in the end is the thinking, design and solutioning. Putting a WordPress standard looking and doing template together? Sure gpt4 would do and help udemy self taught "programmer" do it just fine. Innovation and building fit for purpose systems? Humans. Even with quantum computers and 7 trillion parameters models, still humans.

bee_rider 3y ago
It might be necessary to hire more junior engineers to produce enough senior ones.
- hirako2000 3y ago
  Wasn't trying to explain where are senior coming from. But that if after 20 years of attempt to offshore tech like we did textile, here we are still looking for upper level qualified enginners in the most expensive cities in the world, it means announcing the offshoring of the industry , all along , was fallacy. Wishful thinking for some. Here we are at it again. AI will shift all these workers off payroll . Compress salaries. They are just manipulation, fear mongering to make job seekers give in and accept those underpaid vacant jobs. Where are senior nurtured at? From companies, usually small, and/or those that don't buy the outsourcing/off shoring fallacy, or because it isn't an option for their organization. The ratio of senior to junior has always been an issue and is independent to the offshoring phenomenon. More new people get into tech, and faster than seniors get formed. So it always seems there are too many junior, not enough senior. It also means there will defacto be far more seniors in the next generation than there are today. Still even less relative to how many we will need though.

bee_rider 3y ago

It might be necessary to hire more junior engineers to produce enough senior ones.

hirako2000 3y ago
Wasn't trying to explain where are senior coming from. But that if after 20 years of attempt to offshore tech like we did textile, here we are still looking for upper level qualified enginners in the most expensive cities in the world, it means announcing the offshoring of the industry , all along , was fallacy. Wishful thinking for some. Here we are at it again. AI will shift all these workers off payroll . Compress salaries. They are just manipulation, fear mongering to make job seekers give in and accept those underpaid vacant jobs. Where are senior nurtured at? From companies, usually small, and/or those that don't buy the outsourcing/off shoring fallacy, or because it isn't an option for their organization. The ratio of senior to junior has always been an issue and is independent to the offshoring phenomenon. More new people get into tech, and faster than seniors get formed. So it always seems there are too many junior, not enough senior. It also means there will defacto be far more seniors in the next generation than there are today. Still even less relative to how many we will need though.