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Musk stated that he predicts that 2023 going into 2024 will have a shortage of transformers and that based on the rate of improvement of AI that there will be a

Musk stated that he predicts that 2023 going into 2024 will have a shortage of transformers and that based on the rate of improvement of AI that there will be a shortage of electricity in 2025. Maybe these are moves by tech companies trying to preempt what might be coming?

bamboozled 3y ago
If this is true, it's ridiculous. Climate change couldn't get much worse, yet here we are.
- lmm 3y ago
  Moving our electricity consumption onto nuclear is quite possibly the single best thing we can do to combat climate change.
  - greenavocado 3y ago
    Not enough capacity and not enough plans to bring more online. It is difficult for data center customers to expand in Northern Virginia because Dominion is struggling to deliver enough electricity given the limitations of the current infrastructure.
    - fy20 3y ago
      If the datacenter is literally right nice to the power station, it seems that capacity of the power grid isn't going to be an issue?
      - mcapodici 3y ago
        You need to just go back 20 years, and build that power station.
    - preisschild 3y ago
      New builds will appear, since there is a lot of demand
  - bamboozled 3y ago
    This isn't doing that though. It would be if Amazon commissioned a new plant for their own needs but it seems like they will be sucking power from the existing grid.
    - lmm 3y ago
      Presumably there's a reason this complex was built right next to the nuclear plant rather than built somewhere else and plugged into the grid. It gives them guaranteed demand which helps them operate more efficiently, it avoids transmission losses, it avoids putting load on the grid since it's not going via the grid...
      - UberFly 3y ago
        Talen Energy Corporation just wanted to make a zero carbon data center attached to their power plant. A cool side-project for them. Microsoft made them a deal they couldn't refuse.
- jeffbee 3y ago
  Shortage of transformers is already a thing and has been for years. That's not even a prediction. The lead time for large transformers is years and there is no inventory.
  - yborg 3y ago
    In that case, according to capitalism there should be massive private equity investment in transformers right about now.
- UberFly 3y ago
  Climate change could actually get a lot worse. Just ask Mars and Venus.
blackoil 3y ago
Musk is known for his hyped timeline predictions.
pillusmany 3y ago
He said it, but in reverse order: first shortage of electricity, then of transformers - needed by new power plants built to solve the electricity shortage. You can get an estimate of how much new electricity will be needed by the GPUs already ordered but not delivered yet.
duped 3y ago
This is anecdata, but my electrician friends who do a lot of commercial projects that need transformers say that lead times are atrocious and prices are terrible which lead to budget overruns and project delays already. And people already see the strategic issues with sourcing them from China while domestic manufacturing dwindles. Tech companies that want cheap power for their data centers would make sense to buy facilities close to power plants, but savvy investors trying to profit off the market discrepancies would be investing in the forges and factories that can make the transformers domestically and start lobbying their congresspeople to get incentives from the DoE and other pork barrel spending to make building transformers cheaper and faster domestically. I think that will happen before we see the existing shortage lead to brownouts because energy demands are constantly growing, and both parties have incentives to grow domestic manufacturing.
otterley 3y ago
A transformer shortage is, in fact, a real problem that impacts operating electrical utilities today: https://www.conference-board.org/publications/US-electric-transformer-shortage-is-impeding-grid-expansion-transformation https://www.conference-board.org/publications/US-electric-tr...

bamboozled 3y ago

If this is true, it's ridiculous. Climate change couldn't get much worse, yet here we are.

lmm 3y ago
Moving our electricity consumption onto nuclear is quite possibly the single best thing we can do to combat climate change.
- greenavocado 3y ago
  Not enough capacity and not enough plans to bring more online. It is difficult for data center customers to expand in Northern Virginia because Dominion is struggling to deliver enough electricity given the limitations of the current infrastructure.
  - fy20 3y ago
    If the datacenter is literally right nice to the power station, it seems that capacity of the power grid isn't going to be an issue?
    - mcapodici 3y ago
      You need to just go back 20 years, and build that power station.
  - preisschild 3y ago
    New builds will appear, since there is a lot of demand
- bamboozled 3y ago
  This isn't doing that though. It would be if Amazon commissioned a new plant for their own needs but it seems like they will be sucking power from the existing grid.
  - lmm 3y ago
    Presumably there's a reason this complex was built right next to the nuclear plant rather than built somewhere else and plugged into the grid. It gives them guaranteed demand which helps them operate more efficiently, it avoids transmission losses, it avoids putting load on the grid since it's not going via the grid...
    - UberFly 3y ago
      Talen Energy Corporation just wanted to make a zero carbon data center attached to their power plant. A cool side-project for them. Microsoft made them a deal they couldn't refuse.
jeffbee 3y ago
Shortage of transformers is already a thing and has been for years. That's not even a prediction. The lead time for large transformers is years and there is no inventory.
- yborg 3y ago
  In that case, according to capitalism there should be massive private equity investment in transformers right about now.
UberFly 3y ago
Climate change could actually get a lot worse. Just ask Mars and Venus.

blackoil 3y ago

Musk is known for his hyped timeline predictions.

pillusmany 3y ago

He said it, but in reverse order: first shortage of electricity, then of transformers - needed by new power plants built to solve the electricity shortage. You can get an estimate of how much new electricity will be needed by the GPUs already ordered but not delivered yet.

duped 3y ago

This is anecdata, but my electrician friends who do a lot of commercial projects that need transformers say that lead times are atrocious and prices are terrible which lead to budget overruns and project delays already. And people already see the strategic issues with sourcing them from China while domestic manufacturing dwindles. Tech companies that want cheap power for their data centers would make sense to buy facilities close to power plants, but savvy investors trying to profit off the market discrepancies would be investing in the forges and factories that can make the transformers domestically and start lobbying their congresspeople to get incentives from the DoE and other pork barrel spending to make building transformers cheaper and faster domestically. I think that will happen before we see the existing shortage lead to brownouts because energy demands are constantly growing, and both parties have incentives to grow domestic manufacturing.

otterley 3y ago

A transformer shortage is, in fact, a real problem that impacts operating electrical utilities today: https://www.conference-board.org/publications/US-electric-transformer-shortage-is-impeding-grid-expansion-transformation https://www.conference-board.org/publications/US-electric-tr...