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This obliquely hits the explanation for why climate change will be a disaster for modern society. Virtually all infrastructure has been built for local environ

This obliquely hits the explanation for why climate change will be a disaster for modern society. Virtually all infrastructure has been built for local environmental conditions that, on average and with the exception of highly localized catastrophes, has been relatively unchanged through human experience. Now that is changing for everyone everywhere all at once. It's very easy to say "just build aquifers for 4-6 year droughts!" But this also has to be done with the just-as-easy-to-declare "just build storm surge walls", "just build the grid to be resilient to ice storms", "just grow different crops" etc. This is going to take a lot of time and a lot of money and a lot of resources (resources we probably don't have). We're also not really sure what the new normal will settle on, so new infrastructure could still prove inappropriate 2 decades down the line.

Amezarak 3y ago
Recent human experience. Local climates were never in steady-states during human experience. California is a great example: during the industrial age it's been in an unusually wet period. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Droughts_in_California https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Droughts_in_California > Drought is intrinsic to the natural climate of California.[6] Across the Californian region, paleoclimate records dating back more than 1,000 years show more significant dry periods compared to the latest century. Ancient data reveals two mega-droughts that endured for well over a century, one lasting 220 years and one for 140 years. The 20th century was fraught with numerous droughts, yet this era could be considered relatively "wet" compared against an expansive 3,500 year history. In recent times, droughts lasting five to 10 years have raised concern, but are not anomalous. Rather, decade long droughts are an ordinary feature of the state's innate climate. Based on scientific evidence, dry spells as severe as the mega-droughts detected from the distant past are likely to recur, even in absence of anthropogenic climate change.
- oceanplexian 3y ago
  Not only dry periods, CA periodically has extreme wet periods that come once every century or so. In the 1860s the Central Valley turned into a giant lake, 300 miles long. Sacramento was completely under water. To this day the original Sacramento is 15 feet underground, the new built on top of the old after the great flood.
- BobaFloutist 3y ago
  "I have spoken of the rich years when the rainfall was plentiful. But there were dry years too, and they put a terror on the valley. The water came in a thirty-year cycle. There would be five or six wet and wonderful years when there might be nineteen to twenty-five inches of rain, and the land would shout with grass. Then would come six or seven pretty good years of twelve to sixteen inches of rain. And then the dry years would come, and sometimes there would be only seven or eight inches of rain. The land dried up and the grasses headed out miserably a few inches high and great bare scabby places appeared in the valley. The live oaks got a crusty look and the sagebrush was gray. The land cracked and the springs dried up and the cattle listlessly nibbled dry twigs. Then the farmers and the ranchers would be filled with disgust for the Salinas Valley. The cows would grow thin and sometimes starve to death. People would have to haul water in barrels to their farms just for drinking. Some families would sell out for nearly nothing and move away. And it never failed that during the dry years the people forgot about the rich years, and during the wet years they lost all memory of the dry years. It was always that way." John Steinbeck, in 1952
nostrademons 3y ago
We largely do have the resources, it's just that they're all playing video games, trying to get people to click ads, fleecing people out of their retirement money, doing drugs, posting on Reddit, watching TV, posting on Instagram, managing their brands' social media accounts, lobbying against more infrastructure, etc. You're right that it's going to be massively disruptive to how we currently live our lives. A good chunk of us are going to need to find new jobs. IMHO the trigger will be when money becomes worthless, when we see the first billionaire die from a climate-related natural disaster and money can't save them. But I'd question our inability to save ourselves. In the Great Depression we built huge swaths of infrastructure in very short time periods - the Hoover Dam was constructed in just 5 years, the Golden Gate Bridge in 4. That was with 90-year-old technology; when we pull out the stops, we can do even better today. The Oroville Dam spillway was reconstructed over 6 months [1], while Foster City just built a new levee around the entire city in 3 years [2]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oroville_Dam#Investigation_and_reconstruction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oroville_Dam#Investigation_and... [2] https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/foster-city-sea-wall-18493638.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/foster-city-sea-...

Amezarak 3y ago

Recent human experience. Local climates were never in steady-states during human experience. California is a great example: during the industrial age it's been in an unusually wet period. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Droughts_in_California https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Droughts_in_California > Drought is intrinsic to the natural climate of California.[6] Across the Californian region, paleoclimate records dating back more than 1,000 years show more significant dry periods compared to the latest century. Ancient data reveals two mega-droughts that endured for well over a century, one lasting 220 years and one for 140 years. The 20th century was fraught with numerous droughts, yet this era could be considered relatively "wet" compared against an expansive 3,500 year history. In recent times, droughts lasting five to 10 years have raised concern, but are not anomalous. Rather, decade long droughts are an ordinary feature of the state's innate climate. Based on scientific evidence, dry spells as severe as the mega-droughts detected from the distant past are likely to recur, even in absence of anthropogenic climate change.

oceanplexian 3y ago
Not only dry periods, CA periodically has extreme wet periods that come once every century or so. In the 1860s the Central Valley turned into a giant lake, 300 miles long. Sacramento was completely under water. To this day the original Sacramento is 15 feet underground, the new built on top of the old after the great flood.
BobaFloutist 3y ago
"I have spoken of the rich years when the rainfall was plentiful. But there were dry years too, and they put a terror on the valley. The water came in a thirty-year cycle. There would be five or six wet and wonderful years when there might be nineteen to twenty-five inches of rain, and the land would shout with grass. Then would come six or seven pretty good years of twelve to sixteen inches of rain. And then the dry years would come, and sometimes there would be only seven or eight inches of rain. The land dried up and the grasses headed out miserably a few inches high and great bare scabby places appeared in the valley. The live oaks got a crusty look and the sagebrush was gray. The land cracked and the springs dried up and the cattle listlessly nibbled dry twigs. Then the farmers and the ranchers would be filled with disgust for the Salinas Valley. The cows would grow thin and sometimes starve to death. People would have to haul water in barrels to their farms just for drinking. Some families would sell out for nearly nothing and move away. And it never failed that during the dry years the people forgot about the rich years, and during the wet years they lost all memory of the dry years. It was always that way." John Steinbeck, in 1952

nostrademons 3y ago

We largely do have the resources, it's just that they're all playing video games, trying to get people to click ads, fleecing people out of their retirement money, doing drugs, posting on Reddit, watching TV, posting on Instagram, managing their brands' social media accounts, lobbying against more infrastructure, etc. You're right that it's going to be massively disruptive to how we currently live our lives. A good chunk of us are going to need to find new jobs. IMHO the trigger will be when money becomes worthless, when we see the first billionaire die from a climate-related natural disaster and money can't save them. But I'd question our inability to save ourselves. In the Great Depression we built huge swaths of infrastructure in very short time periods - the Hoover Dam was constructed in just 5 years, the Golden Gate Bridge in 4. That was with 90-year-old technology; when we pull out the stops, we can do even better today. The Oroville Dam spillway was reconstructed over 6 months [1], while Foster City just built a new levee around the entire city in 3 years [2]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oroville_Dam#Investigation_and_reconstruction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oroville_Dam#Investigation_and... [2] https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/foster-city-sea-wall-18493638.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/foster-city-sea-...