4 ms·
I get the impression that somehow China had started fearing US and NATO a bit less in the last few years. While the war is going on Ukraine, I think this might
by rdtsc 3y ago
I get the impression that somehow China had started fearing US and NATO a bit less in the last few years. While the war is going on Ukraine, I think this might be the golden opportunity for China to step up and try to take Taiwan. I think the US and Taiwan understand this perception as well, so that's why the permanent "training mission".
At the same time, there is a danger Putin will try to call NATO's bluff and start something with one of the East European members: attack one of the Baltic states or Poland and see how willing US and West European countries will to be take a step closer to WWIII. If NATO hesitates just a moment, it would be its effective end, the alliance won't be worth the paper it was signed on.
- matthewfelgate 3y agoIf a Russia attacked a NATO country the USA and NATO allies would strike back the same afternoon.
- rdtsc 3y agoI am not sure about that. They could start firing a few drones at some border villages. I bet NATO will pretend to look the other way or say it was just a mistake. There is increased fatigue about the war, and the initial sympathy is turning to apathy in the West. I don’t see France and Germany being prepared to send their soldiers to fight Russians over a Lithuanian or Polish village. I’d like to believe they would, but I don’t see it realistically.
- gls2ro 3y agoThe moment NATO does not respond there is no NATO. And the moment there is no NATO world western peace is done. I am not saying something will immediately happen but an arming race in western world couple with distrusting your neighbors: we kinda saw that multiple times in the history.
- rdtsc 3y agoI agree, and I think currently, even though emotionally NATO is "stronger" and more "united", after the war has been going on for a while, there is paradoxically a lot less appetite do anything. So the chance that it would respond is lower and so the chance for world western peace is lower as well. The scarier thing is I think Russia and China can smell that as well and may act on it. Obviously if Russia launches a nuke, NATO would respond. But what if it sends one drone to blow up a rail yard or sends a sabotage team to blow a power substation? What if it hacks and manages to paralyze all banking all communication in some East European NATO member country. Notice it wouldn't even need to accomplish any military objective, it just needs to show that NATO is bluffing.
- alecco 3y agoWith the economic slowdown they can't afford to lose USA and EU.
- rdtsc 3y agoI think paradoxically if the slowdown doesn't stop, and they think internally people are increasingly unhappy, a war or military aggression is more likely. It's a great distraction something like "the economy is not as good, but look, we got Taiwan back from the weak Americans!"