3 ms·

I don’t have any insight on this particular case but I do happen to know a meaningful amount about how things like this tend to happen historically and there’s

by mdhb 3y ago

I don’t have any insight on this particular case but I do happen to know a meaningful amount about how things like this tend to happen historically and there’s no reason to think differently here. He almost certainly tried to get back in touch with friends and family who would have been under surveillance and they were able to pin him down to a specific location from there. From that point onwards the rest of what comes next isn’t particularly difficult to pull off.

A_D_E_P_T 3y ago
Right. When you're on the run, as he should have been: Step One: You have to absolutely break all contact with your past. That's the first step. Family, friends, bank accounts, old email accounts, everything. (And, needless to say, if you're Russian and are trying to escape Russian agents, the last thing you do is hang out in Russian enclaves. So you break with your culture, as well, to the fullest extent possible.) Step Two: You have to change your appearance; if you were clean-shaven and had long hair, you go bald and grow as much facial hair as you can comfortably manage; if possible you get some plastic surgery done; if you had tattoos, you remove them or discreetly cover them with new ink, no matter where they are. Step Three: You go to a big city of 500k+ residents and work cash jobs-- dishwasher, line cook, nightclub bouncer, delivery driver, construction crew, etc. -- the possibilities are vast. If you're sitting on a cash reserve, don't work and try to make some money investing. Step Four: No heavy drinking, and no drugs that might get you arrested and lead to a paper trail. Do all that and you might live a normal lifespan. This playbook is how quite a lot of fugitives managed to get away with it, including, until quite recently and famously, this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Kirishima https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Kirishima
- xetplan 3y ago
  Even if you do this, a state backed intelligence agency is going to eventually find you if they keep trying. The idea "the west" can protect any single person from a state backed intelligence agency set on eliminating that person is totally delusional. I would question what is going on in a person's head to believe this is even possible. Maybe if we incarcerated the individual under a fake name then put that individual in solitary confinement for life, this would work!
  - A_D_E_P_T 3y ago
    Oh, I'm not so sure. Check out the Japanese guy at the link I posted. The Japanese equivalent of the FBI were searching for him like crazy -- his "Wanted" poster was seriously in every subway station across the nation -- and he managed to get away with it. Many such cases. There are lots of wanted men on the Interpol red list, and "state backed intelligence agencies" are actively searching for many of them. Some of them have been on the list for many years. Intel agencies aren't magic, and they're not omniscient. If you're careful, the best tool they have is facial recognition, like Clearview, but that has yet to reach its full dystopian potential. In OP, you've got a famous Russian defector who retired to a Russian resort town on the Spanish coast. A very boneheaded move, that; ofc he was going to get caught.
  - mdhb 3y ago
    Strong disagree on this one, despite their best efforts to seem otherwise the intel folks aren’t magic and they have very real limitations in terms of how many resources they can throw into something like this. Not everyone is going to get the bin laden treatment. But they have lots of experience in managing defectors as well, it’s almost always a case of poor adherence to security procedures that exposes people because as the person in hiding you actually have the much stronger hand not the people looking for you. There’s a long history of people successfully doing this with little to no help in groups such as the IRA for example but when you have a government who will actively support you with things like documents, money, housing and training… your chances are actually very good that you will die of natural causes.

by mdhb 3y ago

A_D_E_P_T 3y ago

Right. When you're on the run, as he should have been: Step One: You have to absolutely break all contact with your past. That's the first step. Family, friends, bank accounts, old email accounts, everything. (And, needless to say, if you're Russian and are trying to escape Russian agents, the last thing you do is hang out in Russian enclaves. So you break with your culture, as well, to the fullest extent possible.) Step Two: You have to change your appearance; if you were clean-shaven and had long hair, you go bald and grow as much facial hair as you can comfortably manage; if possible you get some plastic surgery done; if you had tattoos, you remove them or discreetly cover them with new ink, no matter where they are. Step Three: You go to a big city of 500k+ residents and work cash jobs-- dishwasher, line cook, nightclub bouncer, delivery driver, construction crew, etc. -- the possibilities are vast. If you're sitting on a cash reserve, don't work and try to make some money investing. Step Four: No heavy drinking, and no drugs that might get you arrested and lead to a paper trail. Do all that and you might live a normal lifespan. This playbook is how quite a lot of fugitives managed to get away with it, including, until quite recently and famously, this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Kirishima https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Kirishima

xetplan 3y ago
Even if you do this, a state backed intelligence agency is going to eventually find you if they keep trying. The idea "the west" can protect any single person from a state backed intelligence agency set on eliminating that person is totally delusional. I would question what is going on in a person's head to believe this is even possible. Maybe if we incarcerated the individual under a fake name then put that individual in solitary confinement for life, this would work!
- A_D_E_P_T 3y ago
  Oh, I'm not so sure. Check out the Japanese guy at the link I posted. The Japanese equivalent of the FBI were searching for him like crazy -- his "Wanted" poster was seriously in every subway station across the nation -- and he managed to get away with it. Many such cases. There are lots of wanted men on the Interpol red list, and "state backed intelligence agencies" are actively searching for many of them. Some of them have been on the list for many years. Intel agencies aren't magic, and they're not omniscient. If you're careful, the best tool they have is facial recognition, like Clearview, but that has yet to reach its full dystopian potential. In OP, you've got a famous Russian defector who retired to a Russian resort town on the Spanish coast. A very boneheaded move, that; ofc he was going to get caught.
- mdhb 3y ago
  Strong disagree on this one, despite their best efforts to seem otherwise the intel folks aren’t magic and they have very real limitations in terms of how many resources they can throw into something like this. Not everyone is going to get the bin laden treatment. But they have lots of experience in managing defectors as well, it’s almost always a case of poor adherence to security procedures that exposes people because as the person in hiding you actually have the much stronger hand not the people looking for you. There’s a long history of people successfully doing this with little to no help in groups such as the IRA for example but when you have a government who will actively support you with things like documents, money, housing and training… your chances are actually very good that you will die of natural causes.