I like the connection to Fermi. It seems to me eventually there has to be a concrete answer to the following question: Given the laws of physics, and the "initi

I like the connection to Fermi. It seems to me eventually there has to be a concrete answer to the following question: Given the laws of physics, and the "initial conditions" (ie the state of the Universe at the moment of the Big Bang), what is the statistical likelihood of advanced (ie technological) civilizations occurring over time, and what is the likelihood that they go extinct (or revert to less technologically savvy conditions)? ISTM there are intrinsic numbers for this calculation, though it is probably impossible for us to derive them from first principles.