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This overcapacity will quickly move into undercapacity. It's quite normal that during this rampup phase of EVs and batteries and factories for these are not in

This overcapacity will quickly move into undercapacity. It's quite normal that during this rampup phase of EVs and batteries and factories for these are not in a steady state situation. There will be many ups and downs until EVs are the dominant or only car type being sold. In a year or two there will be no point buying anything else than an EV. Lower price, better range, better performance, lower cost of ownership.

b112 3y ago
I'm sort of lost with this comment: Lower price, better range, better performance, lower cost of ownership. 1) There is no EV car anywhere in the West that is even close to the cost of a comparably spec'd gas car. "A year or two" seems wildly optimistic. Try "decade or two". 2) Better range? Than what? Other electric cars? OK, great, but range isn't "$x km", but "$x km in $y time". Right now a gas car refuels in < 10 minutes, including time to pull off the interstate and back on. Electric takes way longer, including that 'fast charge' being only to 80% typically. You'd need 4x the range of a gas car, to even approach "the same range as gas" 3) Better performance? How? I've seen a lot of electric cars with underpowered electric motors. Every electric car is not a hot-rod. 4) Lower cost of ownership is not even remotely validated or proven yet. It's an assumption. It doesn't matter what the logic is, we have absolutely zero proof this is valid. The "most used parts", such as brakes and tires and such, actually wear faster because most EVs are far, far heavier than gas guzzlers. And they DO damage the roads faster due to their added weight too, which means EVs are currently doing additional environmental damage, but heaping that environmental damage onto the shoulders of society. And lets not even get started on battery recycling costs and environmental costs. But my point is, that's a lot of assumptions for a really, really, really short timeframe. 1-2 years?
- ponector 3y ago
  Many modern cars can run up to 1000km from one tank. Electric vehicle is awesome for city daily driver but not so good for long journeys, especially if you cross borders. Regarding cost of ownership many forget that ev loose value much faster than traditional cars. What is the point if you spent 1000 less but lost in value 2000 more?
  - bryanlarsen 3y ago
    Nobody cares whether their cars can go 500km or 1000km on a single tank of gas. It's not a feature that people will pay extra for. Once you hit 500km battery range, charger network ubiquity, reliability and speed are far more important than battery capacity.
- flakeoil 3y ago
  1) Well, Volkswagen have one planned for 2025, the ID 2all for about 25000 USD [1]. The BYD e2 costs around 15000 USD [2]. It's almost a physical fact that EVs are cheaper than gasoline cars to produce. Right now the prices are higher because of marketing (they can charge more as they have limited production capacity), they designed the cars as premium, suppliers have not yet optimized and standardized their EV components to the same degree as their combustion engine products and their volumes are lower. 2) Better range than gas cars was maybe a bit wrong, but what I meant was good enough to make any difference in practice. You can drive an EV long enough that your bladder or stomach says stop before the car. And with fast charging in less than 15 minutes, it's about the same it takes to take a quick break. 3) Well they can be faster in acceleration if needed, but that is of course not necessary. They are quieter, better torque etc. 4) They are heavier today because the batteries are over-dimensioned. In a couple of years, with the fast charging technology being introduced today, the battery could be made half the size. And the weight of SUVs where it adds no functionality versus a regular form factor car is just dumb payload. A regular form-factor EV car weighs same or less than a gasoline SUV. 5) Environmental costs? Yeah, as if gas cars have been good for the environment up until now. Try to recycle that gasoline. At least batteries can be recycled. [1] https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/a43335573/vw-id-2all-affordable-ev-concept-25000/ https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/a43335573/vw-id-2al... [2] https://www.arenaev.com/15000_byd_e2_comes_with_405_km_of_range_and_2_years_of_free_internet-news-1650.php https://www.arenaev.com/15000_byd_e2_comes_with_405_km_of_ra...
  - b112 3y ago
    A lot of your points conflict. For example, you talk about range, then talk about 1/2ing the size of battery packs. But: 1) When we see it, we'll see it. However, the '2all' @ 25kUSD is still 2x the price of the cheapest gas car in Canada (under $20k). But again, we'll see. However, it is absolutely not a fact that EVs are cheaper to make. "Produce" perhaps, if you mean "assemble", although even this isn't a complete given. My point here is, the battery packs are currently very expensive, and are currently what is keeping price high. Nothing else. And the thing we're reading about? Is a market aberration. Still, battery pricing is falling consistently, which is why I say 10 years. 2) This has been discussed over and over. If you're going to say "15 minutes to 80%", then for gas you must say "2 minutes to 100%". That is because you are discounting paying, getting on/off the road, and so on. Your 15 minutes turns into at least 25 minutes, when adding in time to pay, find the charger, etc. Some days I drive 1600km, which is 4 refuels, which is 40 minutes for gas (and that's high), and for electric that's close to 2 hours for electric. But the true problem here is, finding a fast charger along anywhere you may drive, and then.. it not being broken. It not being in use. One day, we'll be there. Charging will drop to under 5 minutes. Charging stations will be everywhere, and so on. But that isn't in 2 years. At all. For example, there are almost no non-tesla fast chargers anywhere in Canada. Trying to drive 3000km can be hard, and for Canada, that's not an unusual trip. 3) Fine, so you admit this is not an absolute. Fair enough. 4) Again with a 'couple of years'. This means 2 years. No. Things don't change that fast. This is hardware engineering, not code. You don't make clean and make install and done. I'm not even sure what you mean with "over provisioning". You're not claiming that less range is somehow going to fix the weight?! Oh great, let's go to a measly 200km range, so an electric car now weights what a gas car does? Put another way, if you take the form of a car, make it electric with 400km range, or gas engine instead, the electric will weight double. Go look at how heavy Teslas are with range. Literally, you're completely and totally wrong here, an EV weights 2x as much as a gas counterpart. And beyond the 2x weight? As you drive a gas car, it gets lighter as the fuel is used. Not so with electric. 5) You're using a whataboutism to try to brush aside things. The point is, electric cars do pollute, and in different ways. One of the thing that always erked me, is that we never seem to prepare. Recycling in North American is often "ship the thing 5000km over sea in a polluting boat, then have a 3rd world nation throw the recycling into a ditch and cover it". We can do better, but often do not.

b112 3y ago

I'm sort of lost with this comment: Lower price, better range, better performance, lower cost of ownership. 1) There is no EV car anywhere in the West that is even close to the cost of a comparably spec'd gas car. "A year or two" seems wildly optimistic. Try "decade or two". 2) Better range? Than what? Other electric cars? OK, great, but range isn't "$x km", but "$x km in $y time". Right now a gas car refuels in < 10 minutes, including time to pull off the interstate and back on. Electric takes way longer, including that 'fast charge' being only to 80% typically. You'd need 4x the range of a gas car, to even approach "the same range as gas" 3) Better performance? How? I've seen a lot of electric cars with underpowered electric motors. Every electric car is not a hot-rod. 4) Lower cost of ownership is not even remotely validated or proven yet. It's an assumption. It doesn't matter what the logic is, we have absolutely zero proof this is valid. The "most used parts", such as brakes and tires and such, actually wear faster because most EVs are far, far heavier than gas guzzlers. And they DO damage the roads faster due to their added weight too, which means EVs are currently doing additional environmental damage, but heaping that environmental damage onto the shoulders of society. And lets not even get started on battery recycling costs and environmental costs. But my point is, that's a lot of assumptions for a really, really, really short timeframe. 1-2 years?

ponector 3y ago
Many modern cars can run up to 1000km from one tank. Electric vehicle is awesome for city daily driver but not so good for long journeys, especially if you cross borders. Regarding cost of ownership many forget that ev loose value much faster than traditional cars. What is the point if you spent 1000 less but lost in value 2000 more?
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  Nobody cares whether their cars can go 500km or 1000km on a single tank of gas. It's not a feature that people will pay extra for. Once you hit 500km battery range, charger network ubiquity, reliability and speed are far more important than battery capacity.
flakeoil 3y ago
1) Well, Volkswagen have one planned for 2025, the ID 2all for about 25000 USD [1]. The BYD e2 costs around 15000 USD [2]. It's almost a physical fact that EVs are cheaper than gasoline cars to produce. Right now the prices are higher because of marketing (they can charge more as they have limited production capacity), they designed the cars as premium, suppliers have not yet optimized and standardized their EV components to the same degree as their combustion engine products and their volumes are lower. 2) Better range than gas cars was maybe a bit wrong, but what I meant was good enough to make any difference in practice. You can drive an EV long enough that your bladder or stomach says stop before the car. And with fast charging in less than 15 minutes, it's about the same it takes to take a quick break. 3) Well they can be faster in acceleration if needed, but that is of course not necessary. They are quieter, better torque etc. 4) They are heavier today because the batteries are over-dimensioned. In a couple of years, with the fast charging technology being introduced today, the battery could be made half the size. And the weight of SUVs where it adds no functionality versus a regular form factor car is just dumb payload. A regular form-factor EV car weighs same or less than a gasoline SUV. 5) Environmental costs? Yeah, as if gas cars have been good for the environment up until now. Try to recycle that gasoline. At least batteries can be recycled. [1] https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/a43335573/vw-id-2all-affordable-ev-concept-25000/ https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/a43335573/vw-id-2al... [2] https://www.arenaev.com/15000_byd_e2_comes_with_405_km_of_range_and_2_years_of_free_internet-news-1650.php https://www.arenaev.com/15000_byd_e2_comes_with_405_km_of_ra...
- b112 3y ago
  A lot of your points conflict. For example, you talk about range, then talk about 1/2ing the size of battery packs. But: 1) When we see it, we'll see it. However, the '2all' @ 25kUSD is still 2x the price of the cheapest gas car in Canada (under $20k). But again, we'll see. However, it is absolutely not a fact that EVs are cheaper to make. "Produce" perhaps, if you mean "assemble", although even this isn't a complete given. My point here is, the battery packs are currently very expensive, and are currently what is keeping price high. Nothing else. And the thing we're reading about? Is a market aberration. Still, battery pricing is falling consistently, which is why I say 10 years. 2) This has been discussed over and over. If you're going to say "15 minutes to 80%", then for gas you must say "2 minutes to 100%". That is because you are discounting paying, getting on/off the road, and so on. Your 15 minutes turns into at least 25 minutes, when adding in time to pay, find the charger, etc. Some days I drive 1600km, which is 4 refuels, which is 40 minutes for gas (and that's high), and for electric that's close to 2 hours for electric. But the true problem here is, finding a fast charger along anywhere you may drive, and then.. it not being broken. It not being in use. One day, we'll be there. Charging will drop to under 5 minutes. Charging stations will be everywhere, and so on. But that isn't in 2 years. At all. For example, there are almost no non-tesla fast chargers anywhere in Canada. Trying to drive 3000km can be hard, and for Canada, that's not an unusual trip. 3) Fine, so you admit this is not an absolute. Fair enough. 4) Again with a 'couple of years'. This means 2 years. No. Things don't change that fast. This is hardware engineering, not code. You don't make clean and make install and done. I'm not even sure what you mean with "over provisioning". You're not claiming that less range is somehow going to fix the weight?! Oh great, let's go to a measly 200km range, so an electric car now weights what a gas car does? Put another way, if you take the form of a car, make it electric with 400km range, or gas engine instead, the electric will weight double. Go look at how heavy Teslas are with range. Literally, you're completely and totally wrong here, an EV weights 2x as much as a gas counterpart. And beyond the 2x weight? As you drive a gas car, it gets lighter as the fuel is used. Not so with electric. 5) You're using a whataboutism to try to brush aside things. The point is, electric cars do pollute, and in different ways. One of the thing that always erked me, is that we never seem to prepare. Recycling in North American is often "ship the thing 5000km over sea in a polluting boat, then have a 3rd world nation throw the recycling into a ditch and cover it". We can do better, but often do not.