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It's overcapacity if producers are forced to sell at a loss to move inventory. Typically, when you can buy a desirable electric car at 15-20K, that suggests a
by yorwba 3y ago
It's overcapacity if producers are forced to sell at a loss to move inventory.
Typically, when you can buy a desirable electric car at 15-20K, that suggests a desirable electric car can be made for less than 15-20K, but with overcapacity, it could very well be that it cost 10K more to produce and the manufacturer is only selling it to turn a 25K-30K loss into a 10K loss.
Of course from a consumer perspective there can never be too much capacity and any drop in price is good, but the question is whether that is sustainable for producers, or whether we'll see factory closures down the line as the least profitable ones run out of money and have to shut down.
- throwaway4good 3y agoIt is technological innovation. No one describes Moores law as "overcapacity" even if it forces last year's computer to be sold below cost.
- flakeoil 3y agoThis overcapacity will quickly move into undercapacity. It's quite normal that during this rampup phase of EVs and batteries and factories for these are not in a steady state situation. There will be many ups and downs until EVs are the dominant or only car type being sold. In a year or two there will be no point buying anything else than an EV. Lower price, better range, better performance, lower cost of ownership.
- b112 3y agoI'm sort of lost with this comment: Lower price, better range, better performance, lower cost of ownership. 1) There is no EV car anywhere in the West that is even close to the cost of a comparably spec'd gas car. "A year or two" seems wildly optimistic. Try "decade or two". 2) Better range? Than what? Other electric cars? OK, great, but range isn't "$x km", but "$x km in $y time". Right now a gas car refuels in < 10 minutes, including time to pull off the interstate and back on. Electric takes way longer, including that 'fast charge' being only to 80% typically. You'd need 4x the range of a gas car, to even approach "the same range as gas" 3) Better performance? How? I've seen a lot of electric cars with underpowered electric motors. Every electric car is not a hot-rod. 4) Lower cost of ownership is not even remotely validated or proven yet. It's an assumption. It doesn't matter what the logic is, we have absolutely zero proof this is valid. The "most used parts", such as brakes and tires and such, actually wear faster because most EVs are far, far heavier than gas guzzlers. And they DO damage the roads faster due to their added weight too, which means EVs are currently doing additional environmental damage, but heaping that environmental damage onto the shoulders of society. And lets not even get started on battery recycling costs and environmental costs. But my point is, that's a lot of assumptions for a really, really, really short timeframe. 1-2 years?
- ponector 3y agoMany modern cars can run up to 1000km from one tank. Electric vehicle is awesome for city daily driver but not so good for long journeys, especially if you cross borders. Regarding cost of ownership many forget that ev loose value much faster than traditional cars. What is the point if you spent 1000 less but lost in value 2000 more?
- bryanlarsen 3y agoNobody cares whether their cars can go 500km or 1000km on a single tank of gas. It's not a feature that people will pay extra for. Once you hit 500km battery range, charger network ubiquity, reliability and speed are far more important than battery capacity.
- flakeoil 3y ago1) Well, Volkswagen have one planned for 2025, the ID 2all for about 25000 USD [1]. The BYD e2 costs around 15000 USD [2]. It's almost a physical fact that EVs are cheaper than gasoline cars to produce. Right now the prices are higher because of marketing (they can charge more as they have limited production capacity), they designed the cars as premium, suppliers have not yet optimized and standardized their EV components to the same degree as their combustion engine products and their volumes are lower. 2) Better range than gas cars was maybe a bit wrong, but what I meant was good enough to make any difference in practice. You can drive an EV long enough that your bladder or stomach says stop before the car. And with fast charging in less than 15 minutes, it's about the same it takes to take a quick break. 3) Well they can be faster in acceleration if needed, but that is of course not necessary. They are quieter, better torque etc. 4) They are heavier today because the batteries are over-dimensioned. In a couple of years, with the fast charging technology being introduced today, the battery could be made half the size. And the weight of SUVs where it adds no functionality versus a regular form factor car is just dumb payload. A regular form-factor EV car weighs same or less than a gasoline SUV. 5) Environmental costs? Yeah, as if gas cars have been good for the environment up until now. Try to recycle that gasoline. At least batteries can be recycled. [1] https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/a43335573/vw-id-2all-affordable-ev-concept-25000/ https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/a43335573/vw-id-2al... [2] https://www.arenaev.com/15000_byd_e2_comes_with_405_km_of_range_and_2_years_of_free_internet-news-1650.php https://www.arenaev.com/15000_byd_e2_comes_with_405_km_of_ra...