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Cheap batteries are a world changing technology. This is missing key in making cheap electric cars which solves numerous environmental problems. It also has mas

Cheap batteries are a world changing technology. This is missing key in making cheap electric cars which solves numerous environmental problems. It also has massive geopolitical implications: A world that runs much less on oil is a very different world. The idea that this is overcapacity is nonsense. Currently a common electric car costs 40-50K USD, if a desirable electric car can be made at 15-20K USD it will unlock massive global demand.

cinntaile 3y ago
Assuming a big pack of 100 kWh, it would now cost $5.6k instead of $12-13k at the beginning of last year. That's not nearly enough for the price changes you mention. Most battery packs are about half that.
- throwaway4good 3y ago
  You would also make a smaller car. Something like the BYD Seagull: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anoliCXXKIA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anoliCXXKIA
  - fragmede 3y ago
    Looks a smidge bigger than a Smart Car or Fiat 500 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_w_ApfAl8OE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_w_ApfAl8OE
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  An engine and transmission for a consumer vehicle cost around $3k. If a 50kWh battery costs $3k plus a few hundred for an electric motor, then EV's have reached parity in cost.
Cthulhu_ 3y ago
Not only cars, but domestic and grid level batteries too; due to the high attractiveness of installing PV panels, the Dutch energy grid is under pressure, and the cost of electricity is wildly variable in the course of a day. It makes sense to store electricity yourself instead of feeding it back to the grid.
yorwba 3y ago
It's overcapacity if producers are forced to sell at a loss to move inventory. Typically, when you can buy a desirable electric car at 15-20K, that suggests a desirable electric car can be made for less than 15-20K, but with overcapacity, it could very well be that it cost 10K more to produce and the manufacturer is only selling it to turn a 25K-30K loss into a 10K loss. Of course from a consumer perspective there can never be too much capacity and any drop in price is good, but the question is whether that is sustainable for producers, or whether we'll see factory closures down the line as the least profitable ones run out of money and have to shut down.
- throwaway4good 3y ago
  It is technological innovation. No one describes Moores law as "overcapacity" even if it forces last year's computer to be sold below cost.
- flakeoil 3y ago
  This overcapacity will quickly move into undercapacity. It's quite normal that during this rampup phase of EVs and batteries and factories for these are not in a steady state situation. There will be many ups and downs until EVs are the dominant or only car type being sold. In a year or two there will be no point buying anything else than an EV. Lower price, better range, better performance, lower cost of ownership.
  - b112 3y ago
    I'm sort of lost with this comment: Lower price, better range, better performance, lower cost of ownership. 1) There is no EV car anywhere in the West that is even close to the cost of a comparably spec'd gas car. "A year or two" seems wildly optimistic. Try "decade or two". 2) Better range? Than what? Other electric cars? OK, great, but range isn't "$x km", but "$x km in $y time". Right now a gas car refuels in < 10 minutes, including time to pull off the interstate and back on. Electric takes way longer, including that 'fast charge' being only to 80% typically. You'd need 4x the range of a gas car, to even approach "the same range as gas" 3) Better performance? How? I've seen a lot of electric cars with underpowered electric motors. Every electric car is not a hot-rod. 4) Lower cost of ownership is not even remotely validated or proven yet. It's an assumption. It doesn't matter what the logic is, we have absolutely zero proof this is valid. The "most used parts", such as brakes and tires and such, actually wear faster because most EVs are far, far heavier than gas guzzlers. And they DO damage the roads faster due to their added weight too, which means EVs are currently doing additional environmental damage, but heaping that environmental damage onto the shoulders of society. And lets not even get started on battery recycling costs and environmental costs. But my point is, that's a lot of assumptions for a really, really, really short timeframe. 1-2 years?

cinntaile 3y ago

Assuming a big pack of 100 kWh, it would now cost $5.6k instead of $12-13k at the beginning of last year. That's not nearly enough for the price changes you mention. Most battery packs are about half that.

throwaway4good 3y ago
You would also make a smaller car. Something like the BYD Seagull: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anoliCXXKIA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anoliCXXKIA
- fragmede 3y ago
  Looks a smidge bigger than a Smart Car or Fiat 500 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_w_ApfAl8OE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_w_ApfAl8OE
bryanlarsen 3y ago
An engine and transmission for a consumer vehicle cost around $3k. If a 50kWh battery costs $3k plus a few hundred for an electric motor, then EV's have reached parity in cost.

Cthulhu_ 3y ago

Not only cars, but domestic and grid level batteries too; due to the high attractiveness of installing PV panels, the Dutch energy grid is under pressure, and the cost of electricity is wildly variable in the course of a day. It makes sense to store electricity yourself instead of feeding it back to the grid.

yorwba 3y ago

It's overcapacity if producers are forced to sell at a loss to move inventory. Typically, when you can buy a desirable electric car at 15-20K, that suggests a desirable electric car can be made for less than 15-20K, but with overcapacity, it could very well be that it cost 10K more to produce and the manufacturer is only selling it to turn a 25K-30K loss into a 10K loss. Of course from a consumer perspective there can never be too much capacity and any drop in price is good, but the question is whether that is sustainable for producers, or whether we'll see factory closures down the line as the least profitable ones run out of money and have to shut down.

throwaway4good 3y ago
It is technological innovation. No one describes Moores law as "overcapacity" even if it forces last year's computer to be sold below cost.
flakeoil 3y ago
This overcapacity will quickly move into undercapacity. It's quite normal that during this rampup phase of EVs and batteries and factories for these are not in a steady state situation. There will be many ups and downs until EVs are the dominant or only car type being sold. In a year or two there will be no point buying anything else than an EV. Lower price, better range, better performance, lower cost of ownership.
- b112 3y ago
  I'm sort of lost with this comment: Lower price, better range, better performance, lower cost of ownership. 1) There is no EV car anywhere in the West that is even close to the cost of a comparably spec'd gas car. "A year or two" seems wildly optimistic. Try "decade or two". 2) Better range? Than what? Other electric cars? OK, great, but range isn't "$x km", but "$x km in $y time". Right now a gas car refuels in < 10 minutes, including time to pull off the interstate and back on. Electric takes way longer, including that 'fast charge' being only to 80% typically. You'd need 4x the range of a gas car, to even approach "the same range as gas" 3) Better performance? How? I've seen a lot of electric cars with underpowered electric motors. Every electric car is not a hot-rod. 4) Lower cost of ownership is not even remotely validated or proven yet. It's an assumption. It doesn't matter what the logic is, we have absolutely zero proof this is valid. The "most used parts", such as brakes and tires and such, actually wear faster because most EVs are far, far heavier than gas guzzlers. And they DO damage the roads faster due to their added weight too, which means EVs are currently doing additional environmental damage, but heaping that environmental damage onto the shoulders of society. And lets not even get started on battery recycling costs and environmental costs. But my point is, that's a lot of assumptions for a really, really, really short timeframe. 1-2 years?