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Look up the "Simon–Ehrlich wager" - essentially a economist and naturalist held a very public bet about whether certain critical resources would dramatically ri

Look up the "Simon–Ehrlich wager" - essentially a economist and naturalist held a very public bet about whether certain critical resources would dramatically rise on price due to scarcity constraints. Essentially the economist, who bet that we would not see those prices spike as market forces drive resource efficiency. In the case of this wager the economist was correct. Ultimately you are right. We will ultimately and inevitably face resource constraints. How we respond and which resources will provide the limiting constraint is unclear.

kerkeslager 3y ago
> Ultimately you are right. We will ultimately and inevitably face resource constraints. How we respond and which resources will provide the limiting constraint is unclear. Why? Keep in mind that it is not evident that population will continue to grow.
- wnc3141 3y ago
  You are absolutely right. In ecology (which mimics the scaling of any physical system) population responds to resource stresses. I consider this a signal of resource scarcity. As for why it's inevitable: we have unbounded ability to innovate and become resource efficient -market forces will guide this. However there are fixed constraints that will stress human behavior in ways we can't necessarily predict. Some of this is being seen now with shocks to supply chains with climate change. Prices will rise across society as more of our productive capacity is dealt with dealing with the effects of climate change.
  - kerkeslager 3y ago
    > In ecology (which mimics the scaling of any physical system) population responds to resource stresses. I consider this a signal of resource scarcity. Resource scarcity is not the only thing that causes population to plateau. Human intelligence is a pretty huge variable here which allows us to do things like fulfill our evolutionary urges without producing children. I'll agree that scarcity causes population to plateau, but I don't agree that a plateau in population is inherently an indication of scarcity. It's rather silly to talk about hypothetical ecological populations in a void, when we can observe the actual populations we're trying to make predictions about.

kerkeslager 3y ago

> Ultimately you are right. We will ultimately and inevitably face resource constraints. How we respond and which resources will provide the limiting constraint is unclear. Why? Keep in mind that it is not evident that population will continue to grow.

wnc3141 3y ago
You are absolutely right. In ecology (which mimics the scaling of any physical system) population responds to resource stresses. I consider this a signal of resource scarcity. As for why it's inevitable: we have unbounded ability to innovate and become resource efficient -market forces will guide this. However there are fixed constraints that will stress human behavior in ways we can't necessarily predict. Some of this is being seen now with shocks to supply chains with climate change. Prices will rise across society as more of our productive capacity is dealt with dealing with the effects of climate change.
- kerkeslager 3y ago
  > In ecology (which mimics the scaling of any physical system) population responds to resource stresses. I consider this a signal of resource scarcity. Resource scarcity is not the only thing that causes population to plateau. Human intelligence is a pretty huge variable here which allows us to do things like fulfill our evolutionary urges without producing children. I'll agree that scarcity causes population to plateau, but I don't agree that a plateau in population is inherently an indication of scarcity. It's rather silly to talk about hypothetical ecological populations in a void, when we can observe the actual populations we're trying to make predictions about.