4 ms·

I was assured that helium was running out and it was a national emergency. The resource doomsayers just move onto the next "crisis" when they're proven wrong.

I was assured that helium was running out and it was a national emergency. The resource doomsayers just move onto the next "crisis" when they're proven wrong. Again.

defrost 3y ago
Helium has been running out .. this doesn't change that. > when they're proven wrong. How so? The article clearly states that a feasibility study hasn't yet been completed. Can you outline what the national|global He demand is and by how much this increases supply? If not, your comment seems like baseless opinion. Addendum: Here's a starter for current US domestic sales and consumption: In 2023, the estimated sales of Grade-A helium (99.997% helium or greater) and gaseous helium (generally greater than 98% helium) was an estimated 79 million cubic meters (2.8 billion cubic feet) valued at an estimated $1.1 billion. In 2023, US production from natural gas was 60 million cubic meters In 2023, estimated domestic apparent consumption of Grade-A and gaseous helium was 59 million cubic meters (2.1 billion cubic feet), and it was used for, in decreasing quantity of use, analytical, engineering, lab, science, and specialty gases (21%); controlled atmospheres, fiber optics, and semiconductors (17%); magnetic resonance imaging (17%); lifting gas (16%); aerospace, pressuring, and purging (9%); welding (8%); leak detection (5%); diving (4%); and various other minor applications (3%). https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2024/mcs2024-helium.pdf https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2024/mcs2024-helium.pdf
- SamPatt 3y ago
  I don't need to see the end result to make the claim - the doomsayers miss the basic economic principle about incentives changing with prices. They extrapolate trend lines out without realizing that every time something starts to "run out" people change their behavior in a way to either reduce demand, increase supply, or find alternatives. This happens time and time again. Oil is the most obvious example, but helium fulfills this pattern as well, and was worsened by the government meddling in the supply, effectively destroying the private industry generations ago. Despite that, and helium being non-renewable without many alternatives, I'm still confident we won't run out without needing to dive into supply and demand numbers.
- credit_guy 3y ago
  Helium can't run out. Ever. Or actually it can, but in about 10 billion years or so. Helium is alpha particles produced in the decay chain of uranium and thorium deep inside the planet. It's being produced continuously, and it seeps upward. It stops in the pockets where other gases stop, and whatever forms there is called "natural gas". Helium is present in all natural gas, but it generally it is in a small enough concentration to not be worth separating. The price of helium is about 100 times the price of natural gas, so if a given natural gas field has a concentration of 1% helium, and you separate that and you sell it, you double your profits. But most often the concentration is 0.1% or lower, so after the additional separation costs it's not worth the trouble. But when you have a field that yields more than 12% helium, you bet it's super profitable to separate it and sell it.
  - defrost 3y ago
    > Helium is alpha particles produced in the decay chain of uranium and thorium deep inside the planet. Throughout the planet, but the overwhelming bulk of Helium that we humans can access comes from the crust layers .. intense pressure limits the seepage for deep helium and the crust is littered with U-K-Th rich deposits that express both radon and helium. > Helium can't run out Human production of usable helium at feasible prices can fall below human demand though, the obvious context missing from and otherwise interesting comment. Demand exceeding supply changes the feasibility bar, but there's still a limit to fresh field sizes and extraction rates. > But when you have a field that yields more than 12% helium But does it meaningfully shift the human supply|demand balnce on the global market, and if so for how long .. this is the relevant resource availability metric.
    - credit_guy 3y ago
      > Demand exceeding supply changes the feasibility bar, but there's still a limit to fresh field sizes and extraction rates. Not really. If at 100x the natural gas price, helium is profitable in concentrations above 1%, then at 1000x it is profitable in concentrations above 0.1%. We produce every year several billion tons of natural gas. The helium that we don't bother to separate from the natural gas we produce exceeds the world needs by a factor of 100 easily. But if the price goes up by a factor of 10, we'd instantly find out we have all the helium we need.

I was assured that helium was running out and it was a national emergency. The resource doomsayers just move onto the next "crisis" when they're proven wrong. Again.

defrost 3y ago

Helium has been running out .. this doesn't change that. > when they're proven wrong. How so? The article clearly states that a feasibility study hasn't yet been completed. Can you outline what the national|global He demand is and by how much this increases supply? If not, your comment seems like baseless opinion. Addendum: Here's a starter for current US domestic sales and consumption: In 2023, the estimated sales of Grade-A helium (99.997% helium or greater) and gaseous helium (generally greater than 98% helium) was an estimated 79 million cubic meters (2.8 billion cubic feet) valued at an estimated $1.1 billion. In 2023, US production from natural gas was 60 million cubic meters In 2023, estimated domestic apparent consumption of Grade-A and gaseous helium was 59 million cubic meters (2.1 billion cubic feet), and it was used for, in decreasing quantity of use, analytical, engineering, lab, science, and specialty gases (21%); controlled atmospheres, fiber optics, and semiconductors (17%); magnetic resonance imaging (17%); lifting gas (16%); aerospace, pressuring, and purging (9%); welding (8%); leak detection (5%); diving (4%); and various other minor applications (3%). https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2024/mcs2024-helium.pdf https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2024/mcs2024-helium.pdf

SamPatt 3y ago
I don't need to see the end result to make the claim - the doomsayers miss the basic economic principle about incentives changing with prices. They extrapolate trend lines out without realizing that every time something starts to "run out" people change their behavior in a way to either reduce demand, increase supply, or find alternatives. This happens time and time again. Oil is the most obvious example, but helium fulfills this pattern as well, and was worsened by the government meddling in the supply, effectively destroying the private industry generations ago. Despite that, and helium being non-renewable without many alternatives, I'm still confident we won't run out without needing to dive into supply and demand numbers.
credit_guy 3y ago
Helium can't run out. Ever. Or actually it can, but in about 10 billion years or so. Helium is alpha particles produced in the decay chain of uranium and thorium deep inside the planet. It's being produced continuously, and it seeps upward. It stops in the pockets where other gases stop, and whatever forms there is called "natural gas". Helium is present in all natural gas, but it generally it is in a small enough concentration to not be worth separating. The price of helium is about 100 times the price of natural gas, so if a given natural gas field has a concentration of 1% helium, and you separate that and you sell it, you double your profits. But most often the concentration is 0.1% or lower, so after the additional separation costs it's not worth the trouble. But when you have a field that yields more than 12% helium, you bet it's super profitable to separate it and sell it.
- defrost 3y ago
  > Helium is alpha particles produced in the decay chain of uranium and thorium deep inside the planet. Throughout the planet, but the overwhelming bulk of Helium that we humans can access comes from the crust layers .. intense pressure limits the seepage for deep helium and the crust is littered with U-K-Th rich deposits that express both radon and helium. > Helium can't run out Human production of usable helium at feasible prices can fall below human demand though, the obvious context missing from and otherwise interesting comment. Demand exceeding supply changes the feasibility bar, but there's still a limit to fresh field sizes and extraction rates. > But when you have a field that yields more than 12% helium But does it meaningfully shift the human supply|demand balnce on the global market, and if so for how long .. this is the relevant resource availability metric.
  - credit_guy 3y ago
    > Demand exceeding supply changes the feasibility bar, but there's still a limit to fresh field sizes and extraction rates. Not really. If at 100x the natural gas price, helium is profitable in concentrations above 1%, then at 1000x it is profitable in concentrations above 0.1%. We produce every year several billion tons of natural gas. The helium that we don't bother to separate from the natural gas we produce exceeds the world needs by a factor of 100 easily. But if the price goes up by a factor of 10, we'd instantly find out we have all the helium we need.