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I don't worry about it, and I don't think experienced programmers should worry about it. Writing code isn't the hard part of programming, and LLMs are a long wa
by gregjor 3y ago
I don't worry about it, and I don't think experienced programmers should worry about it. Writing code isn't the hard part of programming, and LLMs are a long ways off from interpreting vague, incomplete, inconsistent requirements and asking questions. IDEs with auto-complete and syntax checking didn't kill my career, and LLMs at best iterate on that kind of useful but limited functionality rather than the higher-level problem solving of programming.
Suppose LLMs could write complete working code from specifications today. Do you think managers or end users could use LLMs themselves to produce code? That was supposed to happen back with COBOL and SQL and any number of no-code/low-code tools that came and went. Writing code isn't the hard part of producing software.
I do a lot of system administration, where automation in various forms has already taken over a lot of previously tedious and complicated tasks. And you know what happened? The workload increased, because no matter how point-and-click setting up a server gets I have never run into a manager or business owner who can set up a few servers with security and redundancy on their own, much less manage day-to-day admin.
Assuming the best case trajectory for LLMs (which I don't, but for the sake of argument), I think people in management, finance, law will get made redundant before that happens to programmers.
Junior programmers who can't yet produce code as well as an LLM might look at other career options, primarily upgrading their skills so they can offer more value than LLMs. That's not a high bar right now, but someone who mainly copy/pastes code and consults ChatGPT or StackOverflow now without really knowing what they're doing has made themselves redundant.