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Not really. Had they started making electric vehicles when bmw did (and kept with it unlike bmw) instead of their half effort late entry, they would have had se

by mint2 3y ago

Not really. Had they started making electric vehicles when bmw did (and kept with it unlike bmw) instead of their half effort late entry, they would have had several electric models selling very well at this moment. But they didn’t try so they don’t.

dragontamer 3y ago
I think you miss the point. The large number of hybrid vehicles, especially in the low $25k new segment (ex: Corolla Hybrid) are selling like hotcakes right now, even when EVs and other vehicles are having trouble today. EVs are $5k, $6k, $9k+ lower priced in just the last few months across multiple brands. They're getting chewed up in terms of profits right now. Its why EV stocks (TSLA, RIVN and LCID) dropped so much in the past few months. The numbers are in and... they're ugly. EVs are doing poorly. -------- > Hybrid sales rose much more quickly than EV sales last year, up 65% to more than 1.2 million, according to Cox Automotive. While Americans bought the same number of purely battery-powered EVs, that segment's growth was just 46% year-over-year. > Shoppers in the market for a hybrid are also much more likely to pony up more cash for these cars. So Hybrids are growing faster than Electrics. Furthermore, Hybrids are cheaper to make, and sell for higher prices. Its turning out to be an excellent business decision for Toyota.
- patientzero 3y ago
  You speak as if Toyota wouldn't move the market themselves and needs the pricing Tesla needs to make a profit. I also don't understand the concept that hybrids are cheaper. They are cheaper because it is Toyota making a more complex car than a non-car maker could attempt.
  - Ekaros 3y ago
    It seems that massive batteries required by EVs are surprisingly expensive. And ICE+Hybrid tech is not so much...
    - mint2 3y ago
      Toyota has no problem trying to make hydrogen vehicles happen despite the hydrogen stack costing over $10k. In other words, The reason Toyota doesn’t have a successful EV line is due to Toyota not wanting to try because they bet on hydrogen early on instead of EVs
  - dragontamer 3y ago
    All the "complexity" of a hybrid (or at least... a Prius) is approximately 15 gears that replace the alternator/starter/transmission. The Toyota Power-split device is a planetary-gearset connecting 2x electric motors/generators with 1x ICE engine. But a regular ICE car needs 2x electric motor/generators *anyway*. #1 is called the starter (turns Lead-Acid battery pack into cranking force to start the engine), and #2 is called the alternator (turns engine RPMs into electricity to charge the battery pack). Then you need a gear-shifter to have the ICE car handle a variety of different speeds. Change #1 and #2 to be bigger, stronger. Then make the effective-gear shifting a function of the relationship of #1 vs #2 RPMs, and you got a Toyota Power Split Device. -------- Its so efficient and usable, that Ford has copied the design, as well as Stellanis's Chrysler Pacifica. As it turns out, a Hybrid barely has any more complexity over a regular ICE in practice. Its just a *different* set of gears, but really not a big deal. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jofycaXByTc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jofycaXByTc Over the last 25 years of Prius, the Hybrid / Power-split Device has rarely failed. Prius transmission / generator / starter is incredibly reliable. Its just gears. All in all, the "complexity" of a Hybrid is roughly the same level of complexity as an automatic-transmission wet-clutch device.
- mint2 3y ago
  If Toyota had released an EV 11 years ago like bmw and kept iterating on it then today they’d have several models with very competitive costs, likely significantly cheaper than the model 3 but with far better build quality. Are they successful with their hybrid sales, yes, but had they invested in EVs then they would be successful in both EVs and Hybrids, selling both like hot cakes. I’d say their bet on hybrids was the conservative safe one that did okay except one inconvenient thing no one has mentioned yet. Their bet wasn’t hybrids alone as the future of cars. Their bet wasn’t on hybrids alone, their bet was on hybrids and hydrogen and it’s obvious the hydrogen cars are an unmitigated disaster. Had their strategy been hybrids and EV instead of hybrids and hydrogen, they would have two hugely successful next gen car lineups. Instead they have one doing well and one that is a disaster going nowhere. I mean honestly, imagine if they’d put even a fraction of their determination into EVs that they been focusing on the mirai. They’re so dedicated to making it happen that they’re nearly giving it away for free once the $15k of free fuel is factored in
  - dragontamer 3y ago
    Car companies are not responsible for dropping the price of Li-ion. Its cell companies like BYD, LG Chem, and Panasonic. Have Tesla pay Panasonic to drop cell prices, and Toyota can leverage their long-term relationship with Panasonic to get a same-price battery pack in the long run anyway.

by mint2 3y ago

dragontamer 3y ago

I think you miss the point. The large number of hybrid vehicles, especially in the low $25k new segment (ex: Corolla Hybrid) are selling like hotcakes right now, even when EVs and other vehicles are having trouble today. EVs are $5k, $6k, $9k+ lower priced in just the last few months across multiple brands. They're getting chewed up in terms of profits right now. Its why EV stocks (TSLA, RIVN and LCID) dropped so much in the past few months. The numbers are in and... they're ugly. EVs are doing poorly. -------- > Hybrid sales rose much more quickly than EV sales last year, up 65% to more than 1.2 million, according to Cox Automotive. While Americans bought the same number of purely battery-powered EVs, that segment's growth was just 46% year-over-year. > Shoppers in the market for a hybrid are also much more likely to pony up more cash for these cars. So Hybrids are growing faster than Electrics. Furthermore, Hybrids are cheaper to make, and sell for higher prices. Its turning out to be an excellent business decision for Toyota.

patientzero 3y ago
You speak as if Toyota wouldn't move the market themselves and needs the pricing Tesla needs to make a profit. I also don't understand the concept that hybrids are cheaper. They are cheaper because it is Toyota making a more complex car than a non-car maker could attempt.
- Ekaros 3y ago
  It seems that massive batteries required by EVs are surprisingly expensive. And ICE+Hybrid tech is not so much...
  - mint2 3y ago
    Toyota has no problem trying to make hydrogen vehicles happen despite the hydrogen stack costing over $10k. In other words, The reason Toyota doesn’t have a successful EV line is due to Toyota not wanting to try because they bet on hydrogen early on instead of EVs
- dragontamer 3y ago
  All the "complexity" of a hybrid (or at least... a Prius) is approximately 15 gears that replace the alternator/starter/transmission. The Toyota Power-split device is a planetary-gearset connecting 2x electric motors/generators with 1x ICE engine. But a regular ICE car needs 2x electric motor/generators *anyway*. #1 is called the starter (turns Lead-Acid battery pack into cranking force to start the engine), and #2 is called the alternator (turns engine RPMs into electricity to charge the battery pack). Then you need a gear-shifter to have the ICE car handle a variety of different speeds. Change #1 and #2 to be bigger, stronger. Then make the effective-gear shifting a function of the relationship of #1 vs #2 RPMs, and you got a Toyota Power Split Device. -------- Its so efficient and usable, that Ford has copied the design, as well as Stellanis's Chrysler Pacifica. As it turns out, a Hybrid barely has any more complexity over a regular ICE in practice. Its just a *different* set of gears, but really not a big deal. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jofycaXByTc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jofycaXByTc Over the last 25 years of Prius, the Hybrid / Power-split Device has rarely failed. Prius transmission / generator / starter is incredibly reliable. Its just gears. All in all, the "complexity" of a Hybrid is roughly the same level of complexity as an automatic-transmission wet-clutch device.
mint2 3y ago
If Toyota had released an EV 11 years ago like bmw and kept iterating on it then today they’d have several models with very competitive costs, likely significantly cheaper than the model 3 but with far better build quality. Are they successful with their hybrid sales, yes, but had they invested in EVs then they would be successful in both EVs and Hybrids, selling both like hot cakes. I’d say their bet on hybrids was the conservative safe one that did okay except one inconvenient thing no one has mentioned yet. Their bet wasn’t hybrids alone as the future of cars. Their bet wasn’t on hybrids alone, their bet was on hybrids and hydrogen and it’s obvious the hydrogen cars are an unmitigated disaster. Had their strategy been hybrids and EV instead of hybrids and hydrogen, they would have two hugely successful next gen car lineups. Instead they have one doing well and one that is a disaster going nowhere. I mean honestly, imagine if they’d put even a fraction of their determination into EVs that they been focusing on the mirai. They’re so dedicated to making it happen that they’re nearly giving it away for free once the $15k of free fuel is factored in
- dragontamer 3y ago
  Car companies are not responsible for dropping the price of Li-ion. Its cell companies like BYD, LG Chem, and Panasonic. Have Tesla pay Panasonic to drop cell prices, and Toyota can leverage their long-term relationship with Panasonic to get a same-price battery pack in the long run anyway.