3 ms·
>but rather putting the surplus cash in low cost index funds will net you a far greater ROI. Google "problem of induction"
by vik0 3y ago
>but rather putting the surplus cash in low cost index funds will net you a far greater ROI.
Google "problem of induction"
- LabMechanic 3y agoNassim Taleb also suggests to not predict the future from past events. Why? Because we are not almighty and all-knowing, but we seem to collectively pretend that we are. Some people (Munger? Buffet?) believe The Coca-Cola Company will continue to exist, because it existed for that long (Lindy effect), so it must continue to exist. Why “must”? The problem is right here, you cannot reliably predict the future. Who knows what will happen by 2060? Therefore, things like Kondratiev waves might be a new form of modern coffee cup reading.