Take a look at Figure 1 in this study (about halfway down): https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/testing-theories-of-america

Take a look at Figure 1 in this study (about halfway down): https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/testing-theories-of-american-politics-elites-interest-groups-and-average-citizens/62327F513959D0A304D4893B382B992B https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-poli... Essentially, the likelihood of a particular bill being passed doesn't matter at all on how many average citizens want it to pass. It does matter greatly, almost 100%, on how much the economic elites want it to pass.