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> On a serious note, it seems to me technology isn't that far from that point. It feels at least a couple of decades away. I think the most compelling use for
by GardenLetter27 3y ago
> On a serious note, it seems to me technology isn't that far from that point.
It feels at least a couple of decades away.
I think the most compelling use for LLMs and generative AI right now is parsing massive tomes of knowledge, which can then be summarised at use-time.
Like imagine pilots being able to consult an LLM with all of the aircraft's blueprints, technical reports, operational history, etc. during flight. Likewise for spacecraft when debugging in flight.
But the internals really need to go beyond just token prediction, to being able to use Abstract Syntax Trees for programming suggestions with correct types, or building ontology trees for answering queries factually. The former is a major frustration with Copilot (when it gives relevant suggestions at all).
- throwaway71271 3y ago> It feels at least a couple of decades away. chatgpt was released 1 year ago, the transformer is 7 years old, I feel quite the opposite, and also I am quite excited and frightened at the same time.
- tutfbhuf 3y ago> It feels at least a couple of decades away. Have you seen Sora lately? Every few months we get a new big AI innovation or major improvement. We are not in an end of Moore's Law phase in AI, we essentially just started, and the growth is currently exponential not linear.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- ben_w 3y ago> It feels at least a couple of decades away. To me, so does December 2023. My 3σ range is 2-10 years, skewed normal distribution with the mode around 2028.