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Natural gas primary power plants are at or below $50/MWh 24x365. Solar and wind with batteries are in the range of $200-500/MWh. Nice try moving the goal post

Natural gas primary power plants are at or below $50/MWh 24x365. Solar and wind with batteries are in the range of $200-500/MWh. Nice try moving the goal posts though.

ben_w 3y ago
First, you already moved the goal posts given how many poor countries (which you were talking about in the comment I responded to) do not have 24/365 electricity. Also: where does the magic number of 0.05 USD/kWh come from? That number is lower than the LCOE for all the items on this graph except wind which is almost exactly that number: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Electricity_costs_in_dollars_according_to_data_from_Lazard.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Electricity_costs_in_doll... Second, natural gas plants don't operate 24x365; the figures I see say 27%(!) to 71%. Even nuclear varies between low 70s and low 80s percentages: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor Third, even if batteries were as expensive as you think, PV is cheaper than the running cost of a fossil fuel plant, so all the poor countries would still want to install them even if they also used natural gas at night, and that's still a win-win over using natural gas 24/7. Fourth, given I can't use the statista.com link without an account: > Today the LCOE of hybrid PV-battery systems ranges from 5.24 to 19.72 €Cent /kWh. This wide cost range is due to the large price difference of the various battery systems. - https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/publications/studies/cost-of-electricity.html https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/publications/studies/cost-o... Which is US$ 56/MWh to US$ 197.2/MWh at current exchange rates. For comparison, €500/MWh would be the cost of building a storage system from the kinds of battery packs supermarkets around here sell for use in off-grid caravans, and then assuming they last exactly 1000 cycles before being discarded entirely.
- eqvinox 3y ago
  > Second, natural gas plants don't operate 24x365; the figures I see say 27%(!) to 71%. Even nuclear varies between low 70s and low 80s percentages: This is because gas plants are commonly used as peaking power plants because they can respond to load changes very quickly; cf. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaking_power_plant https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaking_power_plant "Peaker plants are generally gas turbines or gas engines that burn natural gas. A few burn biogas or petroleum-derived liquids, […]" A nuclear power plant is the diametral opposite, it's slow as a behemoth to change output power — it's essentially required to run at those high capacity factors. (That said, gas power plants designed and built as peaker plants may not in fact even be able to run 24×365 since they're not engineered for that; planning for frequent idle or shutdown cycles certainly eases some constraints.) Either way discussing a "$50/MWh 24x365" requirement is not even wrong, just 無.
eqvinox 3y ago
I provided a source, you didn't. Ball is in your court. Also, https://www.lazard.com/media/2ozoovyg/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf https://www.lazard.com/media/2ozoovyg/lazards-lcoeplus-april... page 5. Onshore wind plus storage is $42 … $114. Combined cycle gas is $39 … $101, with a midpoint at $62 with "black" gas and fully depreciated, i.e. powerplant costs not included. Now you can provide two sources to pull even.

Natural gas primary power plants are at or below $50/MWh 24x365. Solar and wind with batteries are in the range of $200-500/MWh. Nice try moving the goal posts though.

ben_w 3y ago

First, you already moved the goal posts given how many poor countries (which you were talking about in the comment I responded to) do not have 24/365 electricity. Also: where does the magic number of 0.05 USD/kWh come from? That number is lower than the LCOE for all the items on this graph except wind which is almost exactly that number: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Electricity_costs_in_dollars_according_to_data_from_Lazard.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Electricity_costs_in_doll... Second, natural gas plants don't operate 24x365; the figures I see say 27%(!) to 71%. Even nuclear varies between low 70s and low 80s percentages: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor Third, even if batteries were as expensive as you think, PV is cheaper than the running cost of a fossil fuel plant, so all the poor countries would still want to install them even if they also used natural gas at night, and that's still a win-win over using natural gas 24/7. Fourth, given I can't use the statista.com link without an account: > Today the LCOE of hybrid PV-battery systems ranges from 5.24 to 19.72 €Cent /kWh. This wide cost range is due to the large price difference of the various battery systems. - https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/publications/studies/cost-of-electricity.html https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/publications/studies/cost-o... Which is US$ 56/MWh to US$ 197.2/MWh at current exchange rates. For comparison, €500/MWh would be the cost of building a storage system from the kinds of battery packs supermarkets around here sell for use in off-grid caravans, and then assuming they last exactly 1000 cycles before being discarded entirely.

eqvinox 3y ago
> Second, natural gas plants don't operate 24x365; the figures I see say 27%(!) to 71%. Even nuclear varies between low 70s and low 80s percentages: This is because gas plants are commonly used as peaking power plants because they can respond to load changes very quickly; cf. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaking_power_plant https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaking_power_plant "Peaker plants are generally gas turbines or gas engines that burn natural gas. A few burn biogas or petroleum-derived liquids, […]" A nuclear power plant is the diametral opposite, it's slow as a behemoth to change output power — it's essentially required to run at those high capacity factors. (That said, gas power plants designed and built as peaker plants may not in fact even be able to run 24×365 since they're not engineered for that; planning for frequent idle or shutdown cycles certainly eases some constraints.) Either way discussing a "$50/MWh 24x365" requirement is not even wrong, just 無.

eqvinox 3y ago

I provided a source, you didn't. Ball is in your court. Also, https://www.lazard.com/media/2ozoovyg/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf https://www.lazard.com/media/2ozoovyg/lazards-lcoeplus-april... page 5. Onshore wind plus storage is $42 … $114. Combined cycle gas is $39 … $101, with a midpoint at $62 with "black" gas and fully depreciated, i.e. powerplant costs not included. Now you can provide two sources to pull even.