5 ms·

looking forward to see same title but for developers.

paxys 3y ago
Developers will go extinct because of outsourcing. Developers will go extinct because of UML/MDD. Developers will go extinct because of open source. Developers will go extinct because of IDEs. Developers will go extinct because of DevOps. Developers will go extinct because of no-code tools. Developers will go extinct because of AI. Each time someone predicts the death of software engineering the demand for developers just goes up 10x.
- nebula8804 3y ago
  A lot of developers are unemployed right now.
  - latency-guy2 3y ago
    The words "a lot" is not a number, nor is it a measurement, and most importantly it has no quality. Cite numbers, compare them against other numbers, and then come back with an actual position.
  - AlwaysRock 3y ago
    A lot of developer jobs are open right now.
- not_a_dane 3y ago
  this time is different xD
infecto 3y ago
That has already happened. Companies are hiring less on the engineering front and seeing AI tooling as multipliers to existing developers. Edit: No direct citations, my own experience, sorry! Interesting to see how many people are throwing up the pitchforks in defense of engineering. Even if you are only getting a 5% increase in productivity via AI assistants, thats ultimately less people you may have to hire.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- calmoo 3y ago
  Citation needed
  - infecto 3y ago
    Investors are not making waves with PR announcements but this is where a lot of the PE/VC space is talking and heading. How can we unlock more productivity with fewer heads by using AI. Its quite similar to the Klarna story, reduce headcount and increase productivity. Even ignoring my comments, its quite easy to see how AI can multiply an individual engineer, that is naturally going to be applied at scale by investors.
    - megamix 3y ago
      Yes this is the mind of an economist. The question is how much new production/creative work can be made with AI or if it's just replacing common QA tasks.
    - aldarisbm 3y ago
      I think this is a naive way to looking at things. I like Sam Altman's quote on this. "I think the world is gonna find out that if you can have 10 times as much code at the same price, you can just use even more. So write even more code." I agree that it will have an impact, but I'm wary to predict something specific, whether negative or positive.
      - littlestymaar 3y ago
        This. Current tech of AI is comparable to github and npm where when they got introduced (but less dramatic in terms of productivity improvement actually), what do you think happened when we got millions of open source libraries to do our job much more effectively? The number of developers did not shrink as a result, instead it skyrocketed!
      - 3y ago
rtcode_io 3y ago
Why?
kgilpin 3y ago
A study on Copilot shows 55% faster completion of a programming task [1]. Now we as developers know that coding, and in particular, coding of a de novo feature, is only a fraction of our job. Actual typing in of code is estimated to be between 10 and 60% of the software developer’s job [2]. 1] https://github.blog/2022-09-07-research-quantifying-github-copilots-impact-on-developer-productivity-and-happiness/ https://github.blog/2022-09-07-research-quantifying-github-c... 2] https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/uploads/prod/2019/04/devtime-preprint-TSE19.pdf https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/uploads/prod/2019/0...
- myaccountonhn 3y ago
  And at the same time https://www.gitclear.com/coding_on_copilot_data_shows_ais_downward_pressure_on_code_quality https://www.gitclear.com/coding_on_copilot_data_shows_ais_do...
- infecto 3y ago
  Thanks for the thoughtful post and citations which I did not have on productivity gains. I don't think we have any immediate fear of the industry disappearing but I do think it is important to be mindful of these tools as they can make you a better engineer.

Developers will go extinct because of outsourcing. Developers will go extinct because of UML/MDD. Developers will go extinct because of open source. Developers will go extinct because of IDEs. Developers will go extinct because of DevOps. Developers will go extinct because of no-code tools. Developers will go extinct because of AI. Each time someone predicts the death of software engineering the demand for developers just goes up 10x.

nebula8804 3y ago
A lot of developers are unemployed right now.
- latency-guy2 3y ago
  The words "a lot" is not a number, nor is it a measurement, and most importantly it has no quality. Cite numbers, compare them against other numbers, and then come back with an actual position.
- AlwaysRock 3y ago
  A lot of developer jobs are open right now.
not_a_dane 3y ago
this time is different xD

infecto 3y ago

That has already happened. Companies are hiring less on the engineering front and seeing AI tooling as multipliers to existing developers. Edit: No direct citations, my own experience, sorry! Interesting to see how many people are throwing up the pitchforks in defense of engineering. Even if you are only getting a 5% increase in productivity via AI assistants, thats ultimately less people you may have to hire.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
calmoo 3y ago
Citation needed
- infecto 3y ago
  Investors are not making waves with PR announcements but this is where a lot of the PE/VC space is talking and heading. How can we unlock more productivity with fewer heads by using AI. Its quite similar to the Klarna story, reduce headcount and increase productivity. Even ignoring my comments, its quite easy to see how AI can multiply an individual engineer, that is naturally going to be applied at scale by investors.
  - megamix 3y ago
    Yes this is the mind of an economist. The question is how much new production/creative work can be made with AI or if it's just replacing common QA tasks.
  - aldarisbm 3y ago
    I think this is a naive way to looking at things. I like Sam Altman's quote on this. "I think the world is gonna find out that if you can have 10 times as much code at the same price, you can just use even more. So write even more code." I agree that it will have an impact, but I'm wary to predict something specific, whether negative or positive.
    - littlestymaar 3y ago
      This. Current tech of AI is comparable to github and npm where when they got introduced (but less dramatic in terms of productivity improvement actually), what do you think happened when we got millions of open source libraries to do our job much more effectively? The number of developers did not shrink as a result, instead it skyrocketed!
    - 3y ago

rtcode_io 3y ago

Why?

kgilpin 3y ago

A study on Copilot shows 55% faster completion of a programming task [1]. Now we as developers know that coding, and in particular, coding of a de novo feature, is only a fraction of our job. Actual typing in of code is estimated to be between 10 and 60% of the software developer’s job [2]. 1] https://github.blog/2022-09-07-research-quantifying-github-copilots-impact-on-developer-productivity-and-happiness/ https://github.blog/2022-09-07-research-quantifying-github-c... 2] https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/uploads/prod/2019/04/devtime-preprint-TSE19.pdf https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/uploads/prod/2019/0...

myaccountonhn 3y ago
And at the same time https://www.gitclear.com/coding_on_copilot_data_shows_ais_downward_pressure_on_code_quality https://www.gitclear.com/coding_on_copilot_data_shows_ais_do...
infecto 3y ago
Thanks for the thoughtful post and citations which I did not have on productivity gains. I don't think we have any immediate fear of the industry disappearing but I do think it is important to be mindful of these tools as they can make you a better engineer.