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Name any private individual who has done more for the defense of Ukraine then Musk. Suggesting that a civil war will end in a cease fire along battle lines is

Name any private individual who has done more for the defense of Ukraine then Musk. Suggesting that a civil war will end in a cease fire along battle lines is a very common way for civil wars to end. Even if during those wars both sides absolutely are convinced that they will have total victory.

greedo 3y ago
A civil war. Right. Completely displaying your ignorance of the region's history.
- panick21_ 3y ago
  The history where for the last 400 years the were part of the same country and share close history for 2000 years and only a tiny amount of time they were fully separated. They speak essentially the same language (often the very same) and use the same national origin story and the Russian Orthodox Church was literally representing people from both sides of the border. There are tons of families and other connections over the boarder as well. During that time of separation the actual elites of the country treated the boarder between the two countries as essentially meaningless. The same group of oligarch took over in both countries for the most part and treaty the sovereignty and democracy as a joke. I think its totally fair to call it a civil war. You could call it other things as well that wouldn't be incorrect either. For historical context, the Austro-Prussian War is often called the German Civil War, or in German 'Deutsche Krieg' or 'Deutsche Bruderkrieg'. And those two countries were no where near as close historically as Russia/Ukraine. Its more like if England and Scotland fought each other, but they are both Anglican and English people believed they origin of the Angles/Saxons was in the Scottish highlands. After 250 years of British history, calling that a civil war would be totally reasonable.
  - greedo 3y ago
    Russian and Ukrainian have similar roots, but are not "essentially the same language." The "national origin story" (unless you mean the 1917 Revolution) is nothing like how the two countries were created. Mexico and the US have "tons of families and other connections over the (sic) boarder as well." The reason the elites treated the border between Ukraine and the Russian Federation as meaningless was because ex-Soviet cronies were running Ukraine to plunder its assets. Until the Maiden Revolution, these cronies were basically stooges controlled by Moscow. The current conflict (2014 to now) is nothing like a civil war. Moscow uses some proxy forces from the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, but the majority of forces are from the Russian Federation. They control everything, supply all the equipment and determine goals and objectives. If you were to remove the Russian forces from these two oblasts (as well as Crimea and Zaporizhzhia) these proxy forces would collapse immediately. Oh and regarding England and Scotland, well, many Scots would like to leave the UK. That wouldn't be a civil war either, but an independence movement. A civil war would be the more like the Hundred Years war...
    - khokhol 3y ago
      If you were to remove the Russian forces from these two oblasts (as well as Crimea and Zaporizhzhia) these proxy forces would collapse immediately. As would all of the so-called rebellions in the East from the very start (2014). While there were indigenous elements - even their own leaders acknowledge they wouldn't have gotten anywhere without support (or at least the hope of support) from the Motherland.
    - rainworld 3y ago
      Moscow uses some proxy forces from the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, but the majority of forces are from the Russian Federation. What strange talk is this. They annexed them, period. 17 months ago. If you were to remove the Russian forces from these two oblasts (as well as Crimea and Zaporizhzhia) these proxy forces would collapse immediately. In 2024 (which is now) there is precisely one proxy force in this war. That would collapse immediately without support. You can’t spell its name without “rain”.
    - panick21_ 3y ago
      I am talking about Kievan Rus when I am talking about the 'origin story'. If we like it or not, national myths are and always have been an integral part to nationalism. So what different countries consider their origin myth does matter. Just as religion and language matter. And of course shared history. > The reason the elites treated the border between Ukraine and the Russian Federation as meaningless was because ex-Soviet cronies were running Ukraine to plunder its assets. This was literally my point. So you had the Soviet Union, witch was a country. And now different parts of that Union are fighting one another. Both countries were controlled by the former elites of the previous country. The collapse of the Soviet Union literally was an Ukrainian/Russian independence movement based on the politics of the elites at the time. And the war now could be described as a independence war again. My point here is that its simply isn't a strict defined what all these different things are. You can call it a civil war, and independence war or an imperial war. All of them are correct depending on how you look at it. > The current conflict (2014 to now) is nothing like a civil war. What we call things depends on how you look at it. Consider the situation in Yemen for the past 35 years (the same amount of time as the Ukraine exists). You can call it a civil war, an independence war and many other things. You seem to be attached to perfectly rigidly designed categories of what everything is. The real world just isn't that simple and fits nice into those categories. You seem to be against calling it a civil war between you interpreted what I sad as it being a 'Ukrainian Civil War' but you don't like that because the 'Ukrainian rebels' are outside supported and would normally not actually have a chance. Guess what, that is true in many civil wars. But whatever, I wasn't even saying 'Ukrainian Civil War' anyway. I was just calling it a Civil War because of the extreme close historical connect, simply put for the last 400+ years what is now Ukraine and what is now Russia were one country. That to me is by far enough to consider it a civil war. During the Soviet period, 'in theory' the different members were independent and just part of a voluntary union. But we know this wasn't the case because the communist elites really controlled both governments and the party was really in control of the whole thing. And while the Soviet Union went away formally, 'in theory' the two countries are now fully separated and independent, but in actual reality this was never really the case. A civil war is not just a situation where you have a international recognized country as defined by the UN at the current moment, splitting into two groups fighting each other (with nobody from outside involved) until one wins and then are are reunified the same way. > Oh and regarding England and Scotland, well, many Scots would like to leave the UK. That wouldn't be a civil war either, but an independence movement. Speaking in actual realist terms England and Scotland don't actually exist, its one country called the UK who had a unified foreign policy for many 100s of years. If different parts of the UK fight each other for whatever reason, calling that a civil war is totally reasonable. The Southern States were also an independence movement but yet somehow its called a Civil War. Independence movements often lead to civil wars. Literally a leading cause of Civil War. To say 'it wouldn't be Civil War but an Independence movement' makes no sense what so ever. Its would obviously be both.
- khokhol 3y ago
  For the last 400 [barely 300 actually] years the were part of the same country The same Empire, you mean. Are you saying that all empires that ever existed need to be maintained into perpetuity? They speak essentially the same language Absolutely not the case. Are Spanish and Portuguese "essentially the same language?" And use the same national origin story Nope. I think its totally fair to call it a civil war. You really are very misinformed. After 250 years of British history, calling that a civil war would be totally reasonable. And if you tried walking into a bar, and telling an Irish person that the whole situation with England has been just a "civil war" and that they really ought to get over this idea of Irish independence -- I think you know what would happen.
  - khokhol 3y ago
    ^ Was meant to be attached to the sibling comment (rather than to its current parent), obviously.
bumby 3y ago
It’s not a foregone conclusion that it is a good thing. Some strategists like Peter Zeihan think if Ukraine “wins” it will prompt a defensive nuclear exchange from Russia. In that case, history might look at Musk differently.
- khokhol 3y ago
  While others think that if Ukraine makes "peace" with Russia it will simply set the stage for another invasion attempt and/or a nuclear exchange later.
- lupusreal 3y ago
  The most likely "Ukraine wins" scenario is a frozen conflict (e.g. Korea) in which Ukrainians can feel relatively secure about their future albeit without regaining all of their prewar territory. In this scenario, a nuclear tantrum from Russia seems extremely unlikely. Rather, they would probably cope by claiming they won and the rest of Ukrainian territory was sour grapes anyway. Ukraine actually managing to retake all of their prewar territory might plausibly cause Russia to go totally insane and start nuking, but the way things are going it seems like a pipe dream for Ukraine to make that much progress. Maybe if some serious changes to the balance of force occurred, like a surprise admission of Ukraine to NATO, but this isn't very realistic. (Anything more than that, some sort of "Ukrainian forces in Moscow executing Putin for war crimes" is just pure fantasy. So no matter what happens, relative security is the best anybody can hope for.)
  - bumby 3y ago
    That's a different scenario. You're describing an effective stalemate and, in Zehain's opinion, the best possible outcome. If Ukraine were to "win," i.e., take back all their lost territory, Zehain feels they would have the opinion that the Ukrainian thought is that the only way to prevent Russia from regrouping and trying again is to take the fight into Russian territory. This would include logistical hubs like Belgorod and Rostov-on-Don. In that scenario, Russia, already losing the war, would feel a nuclear strike may be their best defensive option.
khokhol 3y ago
Name any private individual who has done more for the defense of Ukraine then Musk. Irrelevant to the fact he went on to also blatantly dick the Ukrainians over in late 2023.
- panick21_ 3y ago
  Wow how grateful. In objective reality he helped Ukraine a huge amount and thus is clearly very pro Ukraine. Ukraine should literally be thanking him everyday. But I guess that is totally irrelevant. What have you done for me lately asshole. Frankly I think the way they treat him is ridiculous. A media discord based on bad and inaccurate information heavily biased reporting somehow making him out to be the bad guy. Ok got it. Makes total sense. War really makes people lose touch with reality.
jltsiren 3y ago
Except that this is not a civil war but an old-school war of conquest. If the war ends in a way that doesn't include Russia withdrawing behind the 1991 borders, it goes a long way towards restoring the pre-WW2 world order, where conquest is a legitimate reason to start a war.
kspacewalk2 3y ago
What "civil war" are you talking about? Was Hitler's invasion of Poland also a civil war and if so, what is a civil war in your mind?

greedo 3y ago

A civil war. Right. Completely displaying your ignorance of the region's history.

panick21_ 3y ago
The history where for the last 400 years the were part of the same country and share close history for 2000 years and only a tiny amount of time they were fully separated. They speak essentially the same language (often the very same) and use the same national origin story and the Russian Orthodox Church was literally representing people from both sides of the border. There are tons of families and other connections over the boarder as well. During that time of separation the actual elites of the country treated the boarder between the two countries as essentially meaningless. The same group of oligarch took over in both countries for the most part and treaty the sovereignty and democracy as a joke. I think its totally fair to call it a civil war. You could call it other things as well that wouldn't be incorrect either. For historical context, the Austro-Prussian War is often called the German Civil War, or in German 'Deutsche Krieg' or 'Deutsche Bruderkrieg'. And those two countries were no where near as close historically as Russia/Ukraine. Its more like if England and Scotland fought each other, but they are both Anglican and English people believed they origin of the Angles/Saxons was in the Scottish highlands. After 250 years of British history, calling that a civil war would be totally reasonable.
- greedo 3y ago
  Russian and Ukrainian have similar roots, but are not "essentially the same language." The "national origin story" (unless you mean the 1917 Revolution) is nothing like how the two countries were created. Mexico and the US have "tons of families and other connections over the (sic) boarder as well." The reason the elites treated the border between Ukraine and the Russian Federation as meaningless was because ex-Soviet cronies were running Ukraine to plunder its assets. Until the Maiden Revolution, these cronies were basically stooges controlled by Moscow. The current conflict (2014 to now) is nothing like a civil war. Moscow uses some proxy forces from the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, but the majority of forces are from the Russian Federation. They control everything, supply all the equipment and determine goals and objectives. If you were to remove the Russian forces from these two oblasts (as well as Crimea and Zaporizhzhia) these proxy forces would collapse immediately. Oh and regarding England and Scotland, well, many Scots would like to leave the UK. That wouldn't be a civil war either, but an independence movement. A civil war would be the more like the Hundred Years war...
  - khokhol 3y ago
    If you were to remove the Russian forces from these two oblasts (as well as Crimea and Zaporizhzhia) these proxy forces would collapse immediately. As would all of the so-called rebellions in the East from the very start (2014). While there were indigenous elements - even their own leaders acknowledge they wouldn't have gotten anywhere without support (or at least the hope of support) from the Motherland.
  - rainworld 3y ago
    Moscow uses some proxy forces from the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, but the majority of forces are from the Russian Federation. What strange talk is this. They annexed them, period. 17 months ago. If you were to remove the Russian forces from these two oblasts (as well as Crimea and Zaporizhzhia) these proxy forces would collapse immediately. In 2024 (which is now) there is precisely one proxy force in this war. That would collapse immediately without support. You can’t spell its name without “rain”.
  - panick21_ 3y ago
    I am talking about Kievan Rus when I am talking about the 'origin story'. If we like it or not, national myths are and always have been an integral part to nationalism. So what different countries consider their origin myth does matter. Just as religion and language matter. And of course shared history. > The reason the elites treated the border between Ukraine and the Russian Federation as meaningless was because ex-Soviet cronies were running Ukraine to plunder its assets. This was literally my point. So you had the Soviet Union, witch was a country. And now different parts of that Union are fighting one another. Both countries were controlled by the former elites of the previous country. The collapse of the Soviet Union literally was an Ukrainian/Russian independence movement based on the politics of the elites at the time. And the war now could be described as a independence war again. My point here is that its simply isn't a strict defined what all these different things are. You can call it a civil war, and independence war or an imperial war. All of them are correct depending on how you look at it. > The current conflict (2014 to now) is nothing like a civil war. What we call things depends on how you look at it. Consider the situation in Yemen for the past 35 years (the same amount of time as the Ukraine exists). You can call it a civil war, an independence war and many other things. You seem to be attached to perfectly rigidly designed categories of what everything is. The real world just isn't that simple and fits nice into those categories. You seem to be against calling it a civil war between you interpreted what I sad as it being a 'Ukrainian Civil War' but you don't like that because the 'Ukrainian rebels' are outside supported and would normally not actually have a chance. Guess what, that is true in many civil wars. But whatever, I wasn't even saying 'Ukrainian Civil War' anyway. I was just calling it a Civil War because of the extreme close historical connect, simply put for the last 400+ years what is now Ukraine and what is now Russia were one country. That to me is by far enough to consider it a civil war. During the Soviet period, 'in theory' the different members were independent and just part of a voluntary union. But we know this wasn't the case because the communist elites really controlled both governments and the party was really in control of the whole thing. And while the Soviet Union went away formally, 'in theory' the two countries are now fully separated and independent, but in actual reality this was never really the case. A civil war is not just a situation where you have a international recognized country as defined by the UN at the current moment, splitting into two groups fighting each other (with nobody from outside involved) until one wins and then are are reunified the same way. > Oh and regarding England and Scotland, well, many Scots would like to leave the UK. That wouldn't be a civil war either, but an independence movement. Speaking in actual realist terms England and Scotland don't actually exist, its one country called the UK who had a unified foreign policy for many 100s of years. If different parts of the UK fight each other for whatever reason, calling that a civil war is totally reasonable. The Southern States were also an independence movement but yet somehow its called a Civil War. Independence movements often lead to civil wars. Literally a leading cause of Civil War. To say 'it wouldn't be Civil War but an Independence movement' makes no sense what so ever. Its would obviously be both.
khokhol 3y ago
For the last 400 [barely 300 actually] years the were part of the same country The same Empire, you mean. Are you saying that all empires that ever existed need to be maintained into perpetuity? They speak essentially the same language Absolutely not the case. Are Spanish and Portuguese "essentially the same language?" And use the same national origin story Nope. I think its totally fair to call it a civil war. You really are very misinformed. After 250 years of British history, calling that a civil war would be totally reasonable. And if you tried walking into a bar, and telling an Irish person that the whole situation with England has been just a "civil war" and that they really ought to get over this idea of Irish independence -- I think you know what would happen.
- khokhol 3y ago
  ^ Was meant to be attached to the sibling comment (rather than to its current parent), obviously.

bumby 3y ago

It’s not a foregone conclusion that it is a good thing. Some strategists like Peter Zeihan think if Ukraine “wins” it will prompt a defensive nuclear exchange from Russia. In that case, history might look at Musk differently.

khokhol 3y ago
While others think that if Ukraine makes "peace" with Russia it will simply set the stage for another invasion attempt and/or a nuclear exchange later.
lupusreal 3y ago
The most likely "Ukraine wins" scenario is a frozen conflict (e.g. Korea) in which Ukrainians can feel relatively secure about their future albeit without regaining all of their prewar territory. In this scenario, a nuclear tantrum from Russia seems extremely unlikely. Rather, they would probably cope by claiming they won and the rest of Ukrainian territory was sour grapes anyway. Ukraine actually managing to retake all of their prewar territory might plausibly cause Russia to go totally insane and start nuking, but the way things are going it seems like a pipe dream for Ukraine to make that much progress. Maybe if some serious changes to the balance of force occurred, like a surprise admission of Ukraine to NATO, but this isn't very realistic. (Anything more than that, some sort of "Ukrainian forces in Moscow executing Putin for war crimes" is just pure fantasy. So no matter what happens, relative security is the best anybody can hope for.)
- bumby 3y ago
  That's a different scenario. You're describing an effective stalemate and, in Zehain's opinion, the best possible outcome. If Ukraine were to "win," i.e., take back all their lost territory, Zehain feels they would have the opinion that the Ukrainian thought is that the only way to prevent Russia from regrouping and trying again is to take the fight into Russian territory. This would include logistical hubs like Belgorod and Rostov-on-Don. In that scenario, Russia, already losing the war, would feel a nuclear strike may be their best defensive option.

khokhol 3y ago

Name any private individual who has done more for the defense of Ukraine then Musk. Irrelevant to the fact he went on to also blatantly dick the Ukrainians over in late 2023.

panick21_ 3y ago
Wow how grateful. In objective reality he helped Ukraine a huge amount and thus is clearly very pro Ukraine. Ukraine should literally be thanking him everyday. But I guess that is totally irrelevant. What have you done for me lately asshole. Frankly I think the way they treat him is ridiculous. A media discord based on bad and inaccurate information heavily biased reporting somehow making him out to be the bad guy. Ok got it. Makes total sense. War really makes people lose touch with reality.

jltsiren 3y ago

Except that this is not a civil war but an old-school war of conquest. If the war ends in a way that doesn't include Russia withdrawing behind the 1991 borders, it goes a long way towards restoring the pre-WW2 world order, where conquest is a legitimate reason to start a war.

kspacewalk2 3y ago

What "civil war" are you talking about? Was Hitler's invasion of Poland also a civil war and if so, what is a civil war in your mind?