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There's no skin in the game with Metaculus, it's a prediction aggregator, not a prediction market. Nothing is at stake. This is why you see a somewhat absurd s
by samatman 3y ago
There's no skin in the game with Metaculus, it's a prediction aggregator, not a prediction market. Nothing is at stake.
This is why you see a somewhat absurd skew on AI doom/safety questions, using Metaculus is a hobby of the cult^H^H^H^H movement, and no one's swooping in to steal their money because there isn't any.
- gbear605 3y agoIt’s somewhat more complex than that because Metaculus weights its aggregates by how accurate predictors have been in the past. Definitely not perfect though, and the efficient market hypothesis isn’t relevant at all.