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This reminds me of the oil curse. After a country discovers it has lots of oil, it nukes every other sector of their economy. Why? Because there's nothing
by rhelz 3y ago
This reminds me of the oil curse. After a country discovers it has lots of oil, it nukes every other sector of their economy. Why? Because there's nothing you can invest your money in which would give you a larger return than oil. It sucks the lifeblood out of every other sector.
Apple just didn't invest in its electric cars enough to let them develop it fast enough, and now with China coming online, the window of opportunity has past.
Same reason why Google didn't productize its deep learning R&D.
The only company which has ever ben able to escape from this trap is Intel--when the Japanese chased them out of the memory chip market, they switched to microprocessors. And now, when ARM chased them out of microprocessors, they are switching over to building fabs. The chip architects I know over there are watching their budgets being switched over. Only the paranoid survive.
- fngjdflmdflg 3y agoTo be clear, Intel aren't moving away from uarch design. Gelsinger has stated the economics of their fab business don't make sense without a large guaranteed customer like their processor business.[0] [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PrmrMQ9gJU&t=637s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PrmrMQ9gJU&t=637s (Ian Interviews: Pat Gelsinger, Intel CEO)
- rhelz 3y agoOf course they are not going to announce they are getting out of CPUs before their new business is fully in place!! Everyone would instantly stop buying Intel CPUs and their revenue would go to zero. But make no mistake, Intel knows when to hold 'em and knows when to fold 'em. You heard it here first.