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I’m no expert, but I do recall Tesla saying, at the beginning, that they were using 18650 cells because they were widely available. Well over a decade later, t

by amluto 3y ago

I’m no expert, but I do recall Tesla saying, at the beginning, that they were using 18650 cells because they were widely available. Well over a decade later, the major battery makers are producing prismatic cells in volume, and Tesla is still working on their fancy new cylindrical cell. I wonder if they’re doing this is due to some kind of design inertia at this point. Right now, I can buy US-assembled complete energy storage systems (not necessarily at volume), retail, using prismatic LFP cells, for a lower price per unit energy than the Tesla Megapack.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
Tesla uses prismatic cells as well. You are no expert (as you said), and of course you can buy your own storage cheaper than turnkey utility scale systems. Energy developers aren’t building their own systems; they cut Tesla a check and install the asset (orchestrated by Autobidder). https://insideevs.com/news/542064/tesla-model3-lfp-battery-pack/ https://insideevs.com/news/542064/tesla-model3-lfp-battery-p... > Tesla uses LFP cells supplied by a Chinese manufacturer - CATL, which has basically become a strategic partner with a contract for the next several years. > Because the LFP chemistry does not offer as high energy density as NCA or NCM, Tesla uses LFP only in the standard range versions of its cars (produced in Shanghai and soon globally). LFP will be used also in Tesla's energy storage systems.
- deleted 3y ago
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- matthewdgreen 3y ago
  This seems to confirm the initial point, which is that Tesla mainly outsources its most critical ingredient (batteries) to outside suppliers. Suppliers that are, incidentally, increasingly competing directly with its main lines of business. That might be ok in the car industry, where people will pay a premium for brand names. Seems bad if your goal is to dominate energy storage.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    No one builds energy storage at the rate Tesla does, so while this risk keeps being surfaced on HN ("but what about..."), until there is material movement from competitors, "meh." If it's so easy, by all means, do it. But talk is relatively cheap. https://www.energy-storage.news/tesla-deployed-nearly-4gwh-of-energy-storage-in-2021/ https://www.energy-storage.news/tesla-deployed-nearly-4gwh-o... https://www.energy-storage.news/tesla-deployed-6-5gwh-energy-storage-in-2022-thinking-carefully-about-next-megapack-factory-site/ https://www.energy-storage.news/tesla-deployed-6-5gwh-energy... https://carboncredits.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Tesla-battery-energy-storage-system-deployment.jpg.webp https://carboncredits.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/T... (Source: https://carboncredits.com/tesla-413m-megapacks-revolutionize-energy-grid/ https://carboncredits.com/tesla-413m-megapacks-revolutionize...) > Such tremendous growth has been particularly attributed to ramping up Tesla’s Megapack production capacity in its recently built 40 GWh Megafactory in California. The company aims to produce 10,000 Megapacks each year in this factory. > Earlier this year, Tesla also revealed plans to construct another 40 GWh Megafactory in Shanghai, China to meet the robust demand for its energy storage systems. Construction will start later this year. https://electrek.co/2023/12/22/tesla-launches-project-build-new-megafactory-china/ https://electrek.co/2023/12/22/tesla-launches-project-build-... The global market for energy storage is enormous, approaching almost half a trillion dollars by 2030. https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/energy-resources/us-energy-and-resources-global-energy-storage-renewable.pdf https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/... https://www.precedenceresearch.com/energy-storage-systems-market https://www.precedenceresearch.com/energy-storage-systems-ma...
    - matthewdgreen 3y ago
      I'm as excited about this progress as anyone. But (1) Tesla's Megapack business isn't objectively that big compared to its other businesses, (2) while it may be big in the future, that assumes they don't face serious competition from cheaper suppliers, (3) Tesla currently seem to be hugely reliant on Chinese suppliers and factories to build its storage, with no immediate plan to change this, and (4) the Chinese government and battery sector has made clear that it intends to dominate these industries at any cost. Saying "I'm not worried about this" is like saying you're not worried about a giant truck that's speeding directly at you. The question I'm asking in this thread is whether Tesla has a plan to avoid getting hit by it.
- deleted 3y ago
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by amluto 3y ago

toomuchtodo 3y ago

Tesla uses prismatic cells as well. You are no expert (as you said), and of course you can buy your own storage cheaper than turnkey utility scale systems. Energy developers aren’t building their own systems; they cut Tesla a check and install the asset (orchestrated by Autobidder). https://insideevs.com/news/542064/tesla-model3-lfp-battery-pack/ https://insideevs.com/news/542064/tesla-model3-lfp-battery-p... > Tesla uses LFP cells supplied by a Chinese manufacturer - CATL, which has basically become a strategic partner with a contract for the next several years. > Because the LFP chemistry does not offer as high energy density as NCA or NCM, Tesla uses LFP only in the standard range versions of its cars (produced in Shanghai and soon globally). LFP will be used also in Tesla's energy storage systems.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
matthewdgreen 3y ago
This seems to confirm the initial point, which is that Tesla mainly outsources its most critical ingredient (batteries) to outside suppliers. Suppliers that are, incidentally, increasingly competing directly with its main lines of business. That might be ok in the car industry, where people will pay a premium for brand names. Seems bad if your goal is to dominate energy storage.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  No one builds energy storage at the rate Tesla does, so while this risk keeps being surfaced on HN ("but what about..."), until there is material movement from competitors, "meh." If it's so easy, by all means, do it. But talk is relatively cheap. https://www.energy-storage.news/tesla-deployed-nearly-4gwh-of-energy-storage-in-2021/ https://www.energy-storage.news/tesla-deployed-nearly-4gwh-o... https://www.energy-storage.news/tesla-deployed-6-5gwh-energy-storage-in-2022-thinking-carefully-about-next-megapack-factory-site/ https://www.energy-storage.news/tesla-deployed-6-5gwh-energy... https://carboncredits.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Tesla-battery-energy-storage-system-deployment.jpg.webp https://carboncredits.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/T... (Source: https://carboncredits.com/tesla-413m-megapacks-revolutionize-energy-grid/ https://carboncredits.com/tesla-413m-megapacks-revolutionize...) > Such tremendous growth has been particularly attributed to ramping up Tesla’s Megapack production capacity in its recently built 40 GWh Megafactory in California. The company aims to produce 10,000 Megapacks each year in this factory. > Earlier this year, Tesla also revealed plans to construct another 40 GWh Megafactory in Shanghai, China to meet the robust demand for its energy storage systems. Construction will start later this year. https://electrek.co/2023/12/22/tesla-launches-project-build-new-megafactory-china/ https://electrek.co/2023/12/22/tesla-launches-project-build-... The global market for energy storage is enormous, approaching almost half a trillion dollars by 2030. https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/energy-resources/us-energy-and-resources-global-energy-storage-renewable.pdf https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/... https://www.precedenceresearch.com/energy-storage-systems-market https://www.precedenceresearch.com/energy-storage-systems-ma...
  - matthewdgreen 3y ago
    I'm as excited about this progress as anyone. But (1) Tesla's Megapack business isn't objectively that big compared to its other businesses, (2) while it may be big in the future, that assumes they don't face serious competition from cheaper suppliers, (3) Tesla currently seem to be hugely reliant on Chinese suppliers and factories to build its storage, with no immediate plan to change this, and (4) the Chinese government and battery sector has made clear that it intends to dominate these industries at any cost. Saying "I'm not worried about this" is like saying you're not worried about a giant truck that's speeding directly at you. The question I'm asking in this thread is whether Tesla has a plan to avoid getting hit by it.
deleted 3y ago
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