4 ms·

What is remarkable here is that every single thing you say is correct. Everything on your statistical list looks right, and can probably be proven by a stack o

What is remarkable here is that every single thing you say is correct. Everything on your statistical list looks right, and can probably be proven by a stack of peer-reviewed scientific studies from medicine, sociology, psychology... And yet as an argument, it's worthless. Worse... it's dangerous. Because in your schema, the impact of climate change, pollution and other threats that will end this species each rank as zero! You get to "pass on your genes" merely to consign a few hundred of your descendents to a miserable death. This is the tyranny of instrumental reason that you so cleverly use against the goal (reproduction of genes) that you purport to champion.

Geisterde 3y ago
1, 2, 5 is my best guess.
PeterisP 3y ago
Wait, neither climate change nor pollution are in the category of threats that are expected to literally end this species.
- cj 3y ago
  Within our lifetime we’re safe. I think the point is 100-300 years (maybe longer?) from now things might reach a tipping point.
  - scarby2 3y ago
    None of the above are actually expected to end the species. Not in anyone's lifetime, given the range of climates humans survive in. We might end up with a 90% reduction in population but Short of a massive asteroid impact or massive solar event it's pretty hard to imagine wiping out the entirety of humanity.
    - cj 3y ago
      I agree. But anything causing even a 10% population decline over a short period of time would have insane second order effects (e.g. nuclear war) as we fight over control of resources.
    - nonrandomstring 3y ago
      > it's pretty hard to imagine wiping out the entirety of humanity. That's kinda my complaint here. Imagination is more important than knowledge. If we started much earlier in education explaining to kids how remarkable and fragile our existence is, how intricately interconnected we are with nature, birds, bees, mushrooms and microbes, then maybe Hollywood disaster movie plots wouldn't seem like the only route to the end of humanity.
    - jay_kyburz 3y ago
      With only 10% of the population, we might find so much institutional knowledge lost that the remaining just can't feed themselves. We'd have to relearn hunting and gathering, and that just might not happen.
      - PeterisP 3y ago
        If we have to relearn hunting and gathering, that's not even closely compatible with feeding 10% of current human population, that's consistent with <1%, probably 0.1% or less of current population surviving. Feeding even 0.8 billion people still requires intensive mass agriculture.
jl6 3y ago
Arguably climate change risk comes under #1 (not making enough money), because in the most likely climate change scenario, people above a certain wealth threshold will probably survive. Not saying this will be a pleasant experience. Billions may starve. But that still leaves billions, and the purely mercenary reality is that money is what puts you on one side of that dividing line or the other.
- nonrandomstring 3y ago
  From a certain perspective maybe. But I think that would be one coloured by a narrow mentality [0] In a "purely mercenary reality", what you need to survive is not wealth, but peace, and that is something you cannot buy with many of the futures we're now looking at. In a funny way, PFAS is a great metaphor. Forever chemicals have now been found in places nobody would ever have predicted. Bad things have a way of spreading in ways you won't see until they're at the gate. It might not be a good idea to bet the farm on isolationism and exceptionalism. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_mentality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_mentality

Geisterde 3y ago

1, 2, 5 is my best guess.

PeterisP 3y ago

Wait, neither climate change nor pollution are in the category of threats that are expected to literally end this species.

cj 3y ago
Within our lifetime we’re safe. I think the point is 100-300 years (maybe longer?) from now things might reach a tipping point.
- scarby2 3y ago
  None of the above are actually expected to end the species. Not in anyone's lifetime, given the range of climates humans survive in. We might end up with a 90% reduction in population but Short of a massive asteroid impact or massive solar event it's pretty hard to imagine wiping out the entirety of humanity.
  - cj 3y ago
    I agree. But anything causing even a 10% population decline over a short period of time would have insane second order effects (e.g. nuclear war) as we fight over control of resources.
  - nonrandomstring 3y ago
    > it's pretty hard to imagine wiping out the entirety of humanity. That's kinda my complaint here. Imagination is more important than knowledge. If we started much earlier in education explaining to kids how remarkable and fragile our existence is, how intricately interconnected we are with nature, birds, bees, mushrooms and microbes, then maybe Hollywood disaster movie plots wouldn't seem like the only route to the end of humanity.
  - jay_kyburz 3y ago
    With only 10% of the population, we might find so much institutional knowledge lost that the remaining just can't feed themselves. We'd have to relearn hunting and gathering, and that just might not happen.
    - PeterisP 3y ago
      If we have to relearn hunting and gathering, that's not even closely compatible with feeding 10% of current human population, that's consistent with <1%, probably 0.1% or less of current population surviving. Feeding even 0.8 billion people still requires intensive mass agriculture.

jl6 3y ago

Arguably climate change risk comes under #1 (not making enough money), because in the most likely climate change scenario, people above a certain wealth threshold will probably survive. Not saying this will be a pleasant experience. Billions may starve. But that still leaves billions, and the purely mercenary reality is that money is what puts you on one side of that dividing line or the other.

nonrandomstring 3y ago
From a certain perspective maybe. But I think that would be one coloured by a narrow mentality [0] In a "purely mercenary reality", what you need to survive is not wealth, but peace, and that is something you cannot buy with many of the futures we're now looking at. In a funny way, PFAS is a great metaphor. Forever chemicals have now been found in places nobody would ever have predicted. Bad things have a way of spreading in ways you won't see until they're at the gate. It might not be a good idea to bet the farm on isolationism and exceptionalism. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_mentality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_mentality