“People” seem to think whenever you have a number of options, each option is equally likely. I get into the car today - either I die in a crash or I don’t. Hm

“People” seem to think whenever you have a number of options, each option is equally likely. I get into the car today - either I die in a crash or I don’t. Hmm, I didn’t die, I survived the 50:50. Their model doesn’t allow accounting for varying probabilities for different outcomes.