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Even if GPT4 progresses no further, it still would justify the investment IMO. This is the first truly useful and novel tech to come out in a long, long time. S

by ein0p 3y ago

Even if GPT4 progresses no further, it still would justify the investment IMO. This is the first truly useful and novel tech to come out in a long, long time. Something that delivers magic not just in rigged demos, appreciably moves the productivity needle, and makes intellectual work more bearable, at least for me. If this is a “bubble”, it’s at least a useful one.

anonzzzies 3y ago
Well even if it doesn’t get ‘more intelligent’, just faster so we eventually have 10000+ tokens/s (so you can have realtime inference for visual, speech and text) and with a 10m context window, we definitely have something worthwhile and useful for almost everything. Won’t be the downfall of humanity, but will help everyone everywhere optimise work and life.
rainonmoon 3y ago
It is useful... in some respects. The true danger here is not in economic collapse but in what you succinctly described as a perception that it "delivers magic". It doesn't, but there's certainly a lot of momentum behind the idea that it does, leading to its implementation in lots of areas where what it actually delivers are hazards. We're still a long way from understanding how to deal with the disastrous consequences of its biases (see Gemini's recent drama for an excellent, if melodramatic, example) so promises of its ability to optimise workflows and decision-making are leading to its implementation in spaces where a lack of human oversight leads to nothing short of human rights abuses. Proptech, immigration, welfare etc are areas where AI might be useful, but the research right now indicates that it's currently deeply problematic. I'm not trying to fear-monger, I think if the promises can be delivered, of course the results could be extraordinary. But even nascent analysis suggests that more care is required and that the reality is it falls very far short of "magic". And just to ward off any naysayers, I'm a GPT subscriber who finds it very useful in a variety of ways and uses it almost daily. But also anyone who's used this tech for a minute and approaches it from a viewpoint of cautious optimism rather than rose-tinted glasses knows that its limitations are quickly understood.
asadotzler 3y ago
I disagree. ChatGPT isn't worth the 200 billion dollars or so invested so far and it's certainly not worth the half a trillion this bubble will probably absorb before it pops, leaving us with a few improvements to existing tools from the giant players that survive, like PhotoShop and Office (including things like add and subtract objects from images, summarize, translate, and assist writing text, etc but these feature which are all probably going to be LLM based are not worth half a trillion dollars. They're just not, and only fools would believe a few features for a few 30 year old products would be worth that much.

by ein0p 3y ago

anonzzzies 3y ago

Well even if it doesn’t get ‘more intelligent’, just faster so we eventually have 10000+ tokens/s (so you can have realtime inference for visual, speech and text) and with a 10m context window, we definitely have something worthwhile and useful for almost everything. Won’t be the downfall of humanity, but will help everyone everywhere optimise work and life.

rainonmoon 3y ago

It is useful... in some respects. The true danger here is not in economic collapse but in what you succinctly described as a perception that it "delivers magic". It doesn't, but there's certainly a lot of momentum behind the idea that it does, leading to its implementation in lots of areas where what it actually delivers are hazards. We're still a long way from understanding how to deal with the disastrous consequences of its biases (see Gemini's recent drama for an excellent, if melodramatic, example) so promises of its ability to optimise workflows and decision-making are leading to its implementation in spaces where a lack of human oversight leads to nothing short of human rights abuses. Proptech, immigration, welfare etc are areas where AI might be useful, but the research right now indicates that it's currently deeply problematic. I'm not trying to fear-monger, I think if the promises can be delivered, of course the results could be extraordinary. But even nascent analysis suggests that more care is required and that the reality is it falls very far short of "magic". And just to ward off any naysayers, I'm a GPT subscriber who finds it very useful in a variety of ways and uses it almost daily. But also anyone who's used this tech for a minute and approaches it from a viewpoint of cautious optimism rather than rose-tinted glasses knows that its limitations are quickly understood.

asadotzler 3y ago

I disagree. ChatGPT isn't worth the 200 billion dollars or so invested so far and it's certainly not worth the half a trillion this bubble will probably absorb before it pops, leaving us with a few improvements to existing tools from the giant players that survive, like PhotoShop and Office (including things like add and subtract objects from images, summarize, translate, and assist writing text, etc but these feature which are all probably going to be LLM based are not worth half a trillion dollars. They're just not, and only fools would believe a few features for a few 30 year old products would be worth that much.